It boggles the mind that some of you think Romney has a chance in PA... while it may be closer than usual, I just don't see a big enough surge to carry PA for him.
OH and WI are certainly in play for Romney and could go either way. As could NC and FL. Though if you were going to call the states right now it would be the opposite of what you have. NC is almost a lock for Romney at this point, FL is the next closest. OH and WI will depend on turnout... If Dem early voting in Ohio is indeed down as is being reported, that is a bad sign for Obama overall. VA is at this point more likely for Romney than either OH or WI.
Well I think the reason the polls indicate a lead for Obama in PA is because they are weighted more toward Pittsburgh and Philly, where liberals rule the day, and vote in every poll available. I don't think that translates to actual votes on election day, and I don't think Obama will ultimately win the state. I admit, it will be close, and I might be totally wrong, I just get the feeling the polls are probably more off in PA than anywhere, just because of the demographics. The same can be said for WI and MI. Keep in mind, I said Obama MIGHT pull off an upset in NC and FL, it would be an upset in my opinion, I fully expect Romney to carry both. I am giving Obama CO, but again, I could be totally wrong, did you see the size of the crowd at Red Rock? Romney has HUGE support there, and the polls might be completely off target with regards to who is leading on any given day.
Make NO mistake, the Tea Party will be a big factor in this election, they are primed and motivated, and THIS is really their first national presidential election, as a well-organized political group, when you think about it. That means MILLIONS of voters who did not vote last time, who have not participated in the polls or were not counted because they don't normally vote. They are going to have a tremendous and somewhat shocking impact on election day, mark my words. Contrast that with the disillusionment we see from the liberal left over Obama, people like Bill Mahr jumping ship, along with other die-hard liberals who supported Obama in 2008... it's nowhere near the same level of energy and excitement as it was in 2008, when he only defeated McCain by a few points. I could be wrong, but I see a huge shift in enthusiasm here, and one that no one is really wanting to acknowledge. They've written the Tea Party off, and think they've evaporated back into the woodwork, but on election day, you are going to see just how strong they still are... this is their moment to shine, and they are ready.