Projections for Tuesday Night

Rana said:
I posted it earlier.
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Well, I'm not going to go digging for it. But essentially you're suggesting that one of the US' most respected polls is flawed, simply because you do not like the results. It is a pollster that has accurately predicted all but two elections since the early 1930s. But you know better, eh?
 
Voltaire said:
Well, I'm not going to go digging for it. But essentially you're suggesting that one of the US' most respected polls is flawed, simply because you do not like the results. It is a pollster that has accurately predicted all but two elections since the early 1930s. But you know better, eh?
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Telephone polls are becoming unreliable, it is why Gallup has not has the success it has in the past. All polls, EXCEPT Gallup, show a tight race. It is why I believe it to be in error and wrong r the third election in a row.
 
Voltaire said:
Do you have evidence to support your assertion?
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All the other polls show it much closer. The RCP national poll average has them tied. This would indicate that, statistically speaking, the Gallop poll is probably an outlier.

There's a way you can test that of course. Take the sample data set, including the gallop poll, calculate the mean of the sample data set, calculate the sample standard devieation of the sample data set and if the Gallop poll results are more than one standard deviation from the mean, it's probably an outlier. If its more than two standard deviations from the mean than it is highly probably that it's an outlier.
 
I think that Romney is going to squeak by in NY. I saw a Romney ad on the Soap channel the other night. It's going to be the biggest surprise of the night.
 
Well, Voltaire is wrong about PA and that puts into question all of his conclusions about this race IMO.

I guarantee Romney will not win PA.

For a while I thought this was going to be an Obama electoral blowout, but there's no doubt that the first debate changed that. I really don't blame Obama as some do though. Romney was incredibly well coached and he brazenly lied about every single thing he had said previously. Before that debate most Americans viewed him as a buffoon (his overseas tour debacle) and a dick (uh pretty much everything else he had ever done). He was very well coached and I wouldn't be surprised if he also used an acting coach. So Americans who are not thrilled with Obama looked at him and saw someone they could picture as President. That is enough for a lot of people - hey, we ain't known as the country of high IQ's.

And that has certainly changed the race. Since then I started to think ROmney could actually win. The trajectory seemed to be moving in his favor and that is a very dangerous trend this late in the election. However, the swing states have stayed fairly stagnant since Romney's initial post-debate bump. He's held it, but there has not been further movement.

Now in the last week, the movement has actually swung back to Obama, very small, but in a tight race, significant.

So while I believe this race can still go either way, I predict Obama will win. The Dems will keep the Senate, and gain seats in the House but at this point I have to think that they aren't going to take back the house which is too bad because I love Pelosi as speaker. So that is my prediction. And I bet DH's map looks pretty good Wednesday morning.
 
I realize Pennsylvania is a bold prediction, and one that isn't backed up by much data other than personal experience (I've been making calls for Romney). It is just a gut feeling I have. I could end up being wrong...hell, I probably will be.

DH, if Obama wins, I think that map looks about right. But I don't think Obama has a snowball's chance in hell of winning the popular vote.
 
The Official Dixie Prediction you have all been waiting for...

Romney 50.2%
Obama 47.8%
Other 2%

277-261 Romney wins EC

Story of the Day: Voter turnout lower for Dems than Reps across the nation.

On the debate over the EC... I am strongly opposed to doing away with it. There is a reason and purpose it was instituted, and that reason and purpose is just as valid today as it was back then. If there were no EC, the candidates would simply campaign in major metro population centers, and their issues/concerns would be the only thing politicians addressed or focused on, because that would be all that really mattered. People in rural America, would have virtually no political power, and the dynamics of politics would shift toward satisfying the city-dwellers, even at the expense of those in rural areas.
 
Let me also add, the above prediction is a cautious conservative estimate. It could very easily be Romney by 4-5 points, and even a 10 point victory is not out of the question. There are an awful lot of "swing states" this time, and if they all start to swing Romney's way, it could get ugly for Obama really fast. I honestly don't think that will happen, but I do believe "voter turnout" is going to be the key factor in this election, so this is entirely possible.
 
Dungheap said:
Interesting numbers, Dix. How do you get there? Romney wins in NH, VA, WI, NV? Weird. Could happen but weird.
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I think the surprises will be Romney winning Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin... maybe even Michigan. It won't be by a lot, and there may be some major controversy (ala 2000) concerning Ohio, but in the end, I think Romney ekes out a win there. Obama will probably win NV and CO, and might even pull an upset in FL and NC. The northeast will be heavy Obama, but Romney may stand a chance in NH. VA is too hard to tell, they have restrictions on polling there, and we just don't have enough data to go on, but I think Obama's stance on coal will hurt him in VA, and Romney may pull off the win.

I call WI for Romney because of what happened with the Scott Brown recall, I think the (R) support is stronger than most expect, and Ryan on the ticket will make a huge difference there, in spite of the polling data. PA is another state affected by the coal industry because of steel production, and I think it will swing Romney because of that. I make my bold prediction on Michigan being a possibility because of the auto industry, the bailouts should play in favor of Obama, but the bailouts haven't really helped the people in Michigan as much as the people in China, and Michigan is practically Romney's home state, so I think he has a real shot there. NV is Harry Reid country, even if Romney gets the most legitimate votes, they will find some way to make it a blue state.
 
Dixie said:
The Official Dixie Prediction you have all been waiting for...

Romney 50.2%
Obama 47.8%
Other 2%

277-261 Romney wins EC

Story of the Day: Voter turnout lower for Dems than Reps across the nation.

On the debate over the EC... I am strongly opposed to doing away with it. There is a reason and purpose it was instituted, and that reason and purpose is just as valid today as it was back then. If there were no EC, the candidates would simply campaign in major metro population centers, and their issues/concerns would be the only thing politicians addressed or focused on, because that would be all that really mattered. People in rural America, would have virtually no political power, and the dynamics of politics would shift toward satisfying the city-dwellers, even at the expense of those in rural areas.
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Ohh, thank God, I feel so much better now about Obama's chances. Earlier in the race, when you were predicting Obama would win... I was very worried... Then when you said it was too close to call, I did not know what to think. Now I feel comfortable the President will win.
 
Jarod said:
Ohh, thank God, I feel so much better now about Obama's chances. Earlier in the race, when you were predicting Obama would win... I was very worried... Then when you said it was too close to call, I did not know what to think. Now I feel comfortable the President will win.
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Glad you're comfortable, but if Romney wins and I am correct, I will expect you to never again mock my prediction abilities. If you ever open your shit-trap again about it, I'll be more than happy to pop you in the kisser with this one. So now, let's sit back and see what happens?
 
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