While the GOP is on the ropes and needs to take seriously the need to drop dead weight, they can rebound. The label might not survive but conservatives can coalaesce if they ditch their racists
I don't agree that Democrats have no identity problem. Many of the union types are uneasy with minorities and vice versa. The unionist support for trade wars and general xenophobia creates an uneasy alliance. African Americans are more supportive of school vouchers and are wary of the police. The minorities are also uneasy with homosexuals as many of them come from less liberal (it is amazing how few people here understand the word) cultures. Then there is the fact that blacks, Hispanics and other minorities don't identify with each other.
Also, many regulations are designed to maintain the status quo. Minority entrepreneurs can become attracted to free market principles easily after having had to suffer the burden of government agencies that block food trucks and other permits. Libertarianism, properly understood, has plenty to offer minorities. But those who identify as libertarian need to quit focusing solely on government programs that benefit the poor and start spending more of their ammunition combating corporate welfare and barriers to market entry that are killing our economy.
Then there is the fact that our top heavy Ponzi scheme of a retirement system benefits whites over minorities. When this ticking time bomb explodes it will hurt the Democrats. If their reforms are based solely on increasing the age of retirement it could further alienate minorities. Look at what wing of the GOP is rushing in to defend SS/Medicare.
The conservatives (not the GOP) are going to have to dump their racists. One way or the other it will destroy them. But once they do they may be able to capture minorities. I can't see how they will be able to under the GOP label for some time though.
Race is becoming less significant and that will continue to decline. What is Obama, black or white? I am sure he identifies as black but that is largely due to the culture he was raised under. More and more mixed race children will are not being be forced out of their white identity by a pervasive culture of racism. That does not mean they reject their non-white culture, but it will not move them. I have a relative that is 1/4 Puerto Rican. He has half-brothers that are a 1/4 white. They are his brothers and he is theirs. I love going to see them. They all consider me family.
Race labels as a dividing line will fade. The conservatives do need to move away from their hatemongers, trade warriors and Santorum. But that is not an impossible task.
http://prospect.org/article/democrats-demographic-dreams