Corona Virus Peak Watch Thread

Here is a screenshot of Active Cases in the USA:

Screenshot_2020-04-21 United States Coronavirus 792,938 Cases and 42,518 Deaths - Worldometer.jpg

It does look like we are beginning to approach a peak, the rise of the curve is beginning to slow down.

Obviously, what we are seeing is not yet a peak.
 
PoliTalker said:
Looks like we will go over a million active cases long before we see a peak.

Currently almost 800,000
Click to expand...

You are not reporting the true numbers.

793,505 total includes those that passed 42,604 and those that recovered 72,389. The true # is 678,512 that have the virus.
 
Hello Darth,

West Virginia is up to 26 deaths and 663 Active Cases.

Looks like the peak there did not occur on Easter Sunday, and is yet to come.
 
Tuesday

4-21

USA

Total Cases 818,744

New Cases +25,985

Total Deaths 45,318

New Deaths +2,804

Total Recovered 82,923

Active Cases 690,503

Serious, Critical 14,016

Tot Cases/1M pop 2,474

Deaths/1M pop 137

Total Tests 4,187,392

Tests/1M pop 12,651
 
We didn't have a very good day yesterday.

Over 2800 American lost their lives to coronavirus.

There are nearly 700,000 Active Cases, and over 14,000 people in Critical or Serious condition
 
Wednesday

4-22

USA

Total Cases 848,717

New Cases +29,973

Total Deaths 47,659

New Deaths +2,341

Total Recovered 84,050

Active Cases 717,008

Serious, Critical 14,016

Tot Cases/1M pop 2,564

Deaths/1M pop 144

Total Tests 4,325,342

Tests/1M pop 13,067
 
PoliTalker said:
Hello Darth,

You have said you love predictions.

Thank you for this early prediction:



It looks like West Virginia has not reached the peak yet.
Click to expand...

The models said the peak would be April 12th lol.

Came and went. Most recent ‘development’ lol, is a slight increase in case numbers but it’s impossible to know whether that’s due to increased testing.

Or not.
 
Poli's gettin' OCD about this.

Nations can not be shut down due to disease. 26 million people can not be held hostage by
death from poverty, bankruptcy, depression and suicide because a minority of the population
has a disease...any disease...especially a virus which will indeed pass as we know from history.
Give special attention to those who are elderly and have contributing illnesses, take common
sense precautions and get on with life.

There are "NUMBERS" every year of disease and death.
 
Thursday

4-23

USA

Total Cases 879,430

New Cases +30,713

Total Deaths 49,769

New Deaths +2,110

Total Recovered 85,624

Active Cases 744,037

Serious, Critical 14,997

Tot Cases/1M pop 2,657

Deaths/1M pop 150

Total Tests 4,691,281

Tests/1M pop 14,173
 
Well, you know, 30.7K new cases is almost as much as the highest daily new cases recorded, on April 4th with 34.4K.

It's not a peak of new cases as much as it is a wave. If we have flattened the curve with Social Distancing, we have also spread it out over a longer period of time.

Active Cases are at 744K and still rising steadily.

The daily death rate fluctuates a lot, but it appears to be a rising curve. Days ago we set a new high at over 2800 deaths in one day. That certainly does not look like 'having that peak behind us.'

No. There has been no peak in the daily death rate that can easily be seen.

Not a good day.
 
Friday

4-24

USA

Total Cases 925,038

New Cases +38,764

Total Deaths 52,185

New Deaths +1,951

Total Recovered 110,432

Active Cases 762,421

Serious, Critical 15,097

Tot Cases/1M pop 2,795

Deaths/1M pop 158

Total Tests 5,015,602

Tests/1M pop 15,153
 
OK, it was a good news / bad news day.

The good news is (if you can call it that) there were fewer than 2000 American deaths today from Covid-19.

The bad news is that there were +38,764 New Cases. That is a huge spike in new cases.

For Darth Omar, who thought West Virginia would peak on Easter Sunday:

West Virginia: Total cases ... 1,010 New Cases ... +29 Total Deaths ... 32 New Deaths ... +1 Active Cases ... 753

The Active Cases number appears to have peaked, but it is too early to tell. Day-to-day figures can fluctuate. We can't call it a peak until it is verified by more days below the high point.

Darth now suggests the increase since Easter Sunday is due to increased testing. OK, Darth, let's talk about that. Does that mean that these New Cases which appeared today were people who have been sick with Covid-19 all this time, but just now were able to identify it with testing? And this allows you to remain in belief that there actually was a peak in West Virginia on Easter Sunday, but it simply wasn't known about at the time?
 
+38,764 New Cases is a new high figure for one day.

That means the peak is not behind us.

And even if we do see a peak and get beyond it, does that mean it is then safe to open the country up for business as usual?

Just because the numbers have stopped rising?

I don't think so.

If we do that, we are likely to have a second wave.

There are 329 million people in the USA.

We have fewer than 1 million total cases.

That's less than 1% of the population.

Hardly enough for herd immunity or any level of safety to those who have not contracted the disease.
 
Hello Micawber,

Micawber said:
Less detail oriented, keeping it simple, we hit an ignominious milestone, plus 50,000 dead.
Click to expand...

You know it's amusing to me.

I can understand all of these numbers. They tell a story, and by recording them here, it establishes a record that we can go back to and say how much was it on such and such day...

But I get over in the e=mc2 thread and those formulas are over my head. I can grasp the overall concepts there, but not the mechanics of it.

So I wonder if all these numbers are like that to most posters.

I know people whose eyes just glaze over as soon as you start talking math.

Seems easy enough to me.

There is no higher math here. This is all just bigger number vs smaller number. That much should be easy enough to grasp. I guess some just have a mental block, or they simply are not interested in the facts.
 
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