I agree I am arguing the bizarre, but it is bizarre times, so it seems like the bizarre will happen.
Let's say trump is convicted of multiple felonies a year from now, and is removed from several swing and red leaning states ballots. It would be completely impossible for him to win... But also completely impossible for the Republicans to reverse his nomination. He could resign his nomination, but I do not believe he would.
So we are back to my prediction. trump will get the nomination, and lose the general election.
It almost feels fated to be. You know those stories of fate, where all the characters try to change the outcome, but it just happens anyway... Well this feels like that. Whatever path we take, it will lead to trump losing the general election in November of 2024.
At this point I think the most likely scenario is Trump getting the nomination and losing to Joe Biden, but there is a lot of time between here and there and a lot might change.