Dutch Uncle
* Tertia Optio * Defend the Constitution
Isn't that the WHO statisitics?
Corona Virus Peak Watch Thread
- Thread starter PoliTalker
- Start date
Isn't that the WHO statisitics?
Dutch Uncle
* Tertia Optio * Defend the Constitution
An excellent point. It's 50/50.
https://www.boston.com/news/coronav...f-you-want-to-get-a-coronavirus-antibody-test
“In a population where the prevalence is 5%, a test with 90% sensitivity and 95% specificity will yield a positive predictive value of 49%. In other words, less than half of those testing positive will truly have antibodies,” the CDC said in its updated guidelines.
holy crap dude add your 3 numbers up. "Only 3% will be screwed. About 20% will have a bad time. 80% of us will be fine."
Dutch Uncle
* Tertia Optio * Defend the Constitution
Thanks. I see what you mean, sorry it wasn't clearer. My understanding is the "about 20%" who become severely ill include the 3% who end up dying. The good news is that, if correct, 80 percent of us will be fine. Much better odds than at Vegas.
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Tuesday
6-2
USA
Total Cases 1,881,205
New Cases +21,882
Total Deaths 108,059
New Deaths +1,134
Total Recovered 645,974
Active Cases 1,127,172
Serious, Critical 17,114
Tot Cases/1M pop 5,686
Deaths/1M pop 327
Total Tests 18,603,174
Tests/1M pop 56,228
6-2
USA
Total Cases 1,881,205
New Cases +21,882
Total Deaths 108,059
New Deaths +1,134
Total Recovered 645,974
Active Cases 1,127,172
Serious, Critical 17,114
Tot Cases/1M pop 5,686
Deaths/1M pop 327
Total Tests 18,603,174
Tests/1M pop 56,228
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Look!
Another decline in Active Cases!
MAYBE we just had a peak!
This data looks very good.
Date ... Active Cases ... Daily Rise
5-18 ... 1,101,930 ... 11,633
5-19 ... 1,113,815 ... 11,885
5-20 ... 1,127,711 ... 13,896
5-21 ... 1,142,379 ... 14,668 (This day might be called a peak, but we need to see the number of Active Cases continue to decline after this.)
5-22 ... 1,113,850 ... -28,529 (This day was a significant drop!)
5-23 ... 1,121,231 ... 7,381 (rising)
5-24 ... 1,135,434 ... 14,203 (rising)
5-25 ... 1,141,751 ... 6,317 (rising)
5-26 ... 1,144,734 ... 2,983 (surpassed the previous high point)
5-27 ... 1,153,566 ... 8,832
5-28 ... 1,166,406 ... 12,840
5-29 ... 1,169,419 ... 3,013
5-30 ... 1,176,025 ... 6,606 (This day might be called a peak, but we need to see the number of Active Cases continue to decline after this.)
5-31 ... 1,131,108 ... -44,917 (nice big decline here. Let's see if it lasts.)
6-1 .... 1,136,982 ... 5,874 (rising)
6-2 .... 1,127,172 ... -9,810 (another nice drop. Hopefully this means we are passing the peak at last...)
Another decline in Active Cases!
MAYBE we just had a peak!
This data looks very good.
Date ... Active Cases ... Daily Rise
5-18 ... 1,101,930 ... 11,633
5-19 ... 1,113,815 ... 11,885
5-20 ... 1,127,711 ... 13,896
5-21 ... 1,142,379 ... 14,668 (This day might be called a peak, but we need to see the number of Active Cases continue to decline after this.)
5-22 ... 1,113,850 ... -28,529 (This day was a significant drop!)
5-23 ... 1,121,231 ... 7,381 (rising)
5-24 ... 1,135,434 ... 14,203 (rising)
5-25 ... 1,141,751 ... 6,317 (rising)
5-26 ... 1,144,734 ... 2,983 (surpassed the previous high point)
5-27 ... 1,153,566 ... 8,832
5-28 ... 1,166,406 ... 12,840
5-29 ... 1,169,419 ... 3,013
5-30 ... 1,176,025 ... 6,606 (This day might be called a peak, but we need to see the number of Active Cases continue to decline after this.)
5-31 ... 1,131,108 ... -44,917 (nice big decline here. Let's see if it lasts.)
6-1 .... 1,136,982 ... 5,874 (rising)
6-2 .... 1,127,172 ... -9,810 (another nice drop. Hopefully this means we are passing the peak at last...)
Perhaps now you can stop cheering the economic loss by millions of Americans and their families caused by the virus from China that China failed to contain, Snowflake.
I hope protesting doesn’t bring it roaring back, hopefully being outdoors helps.
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
This graph is a good visual of our POSSIBLE PEAK:
(click to enlarge)
Check out that FLATTENING CURVE, at LAST.
Just like the experts said would come.
Obviously DT was totally BSing when he said around Easter that he could see 'light at the end of the tunnel.'
But of course we know very well by now that you can't beleive a thing he says.
(click to enlarge)
Check out that FLATTENING CURVE, at LAST.
Just like the experts said would come.
Obviously DT was totally BSing when he said around Easter that he could see 'light at the end of the tunnel.'
But of course we know very well by now that you can't beleive a thing he says.
Perhaps now you can stop cheering for the boys economic loss to millions of Americans and their families caused by the virus from China that China failed to contain, Snowflake.
Dutch Uncle
* Tertia Optio * Defend the Constitution
Time will tell. The medical professional have spoken about a "second wave" resulting from reopening the country.
Since there is no cure or vaccine, I think there is no way to avoid a second wave without bankrupting the nation.
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Hello Dutch Uncle,
Yes, that is a strongly indicated probability.
For that reason, I am committing to maintain this thread, and keep accruing data.
That way, we always have the numbers to refer to when the inevitable BS arises.
The problem for DT is you can't BS away data.
Numbers don't lie.
DT does.
This thread has already shown that, and will continue to do so.
# In It For The Long Haul
Yes, that is a strongly indicated probability.
For that reason, I am committing to maintain this thread, and keep accruing data.
That way, we always have the numbers to refer to when the inevitable BS arises.
The problem for DT is you can't BS away data.
Numbers don't lie.
DT does.
This thread has already shown that, and will continue to do so.
# In It For The Long Haul
Perhaps now you can stop cheering the economic loss by millions of Americans and their families caused by the virus from China that China failed to contain, Snowflake.
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Wednesday
6-3
USA
Total Cases 1,901,783
New Cases +20,578
Total Deaths 109,142
New Deaths +1,083
Total Recovered 688,670
Active Cases 1,103,971
Serious, Critical 16,939
Tot Cases/1M pop 5,748
Deaths/1M pop 330
Total Tests 19,096,671
Tests/1M pop 57,718
6-3
USA
Total Cases 1,901,783
New Cases +20,578
Total Deaths 109,142
New Deaths +1,083
Total Recovered 688,670
Active Cases 1,103,971
Serious, Critical 16,939
Tot Cases/1M pop 5,748
Deaths/1M pop 330
Total Tests 19,096,671
Tests/1M pop 57,718
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Date ... Active Cases ... Daily Rise
5-23 ... 1,121,231 ... 7,381
5-24 ... 1,135,434 ... 14,203
5-25 ... 1,141,751 ... 6,317
5-26 ... 1,144,734 ... 2,983
5-27 ... 1,153,566 ... 8,832
5-28 ... 1,166,406 ... 12,840
5-29 ... 1,169,419 ... 3,013
5-30 ... 1,176,025 ... 6,606 (This day might be a peak. We hope this is the high point. We shall see.)
5-31 ... 1,131,108 ... -44,917 (nice big decline here. Let's see if it lasts.)
6-1 .... 1,136,982 ... 5,874 (rising)
6-2 .... 1,127,172 ... -9,810 (another nice drop. Hopefully this means we are passing the peak at last...)
6-3 .... 1,103,971 ... -23,201 (NICE BIG DROP!!!)
May 30th might really be IT.
So far, (fingers crossed,) it looks like we may have passed a peak on May 30th.
We need to keep practicing good social distancing measures. Our efforts appear to be working. This would be a really bad time to pretend it is all over, though. We still had over a 1000 Americans die yesterday, and over 20,000 new cases identified. We like that the number of serious / critical cases has fallen below 17K, but only just barely.
5-23 ... 1,121,231 ... 7,381
5-24 ... 1,135,434 ... 14,203
5-25 ... 1,141,751 ... 6,317
5-26 ... 1,144,734 ... 2,983
5-27 ... 1,153,566 ... 8,832
5-28 ... 1,166,406 ... 12,840
5-29 ... 1,169,419 ... 3,013
5-30 ... 1,176,025 ... 6,606 (This day might be a peak. We hope this is the high point. We shall see.)
5-31 ... 1,131,108 ... -44,917 (nice big decline here. Let's see if it lasts.)
6-1 .... 1,136,982 ... 5,874 (rising)
6-2 .... 1,127,172 ... -9,810 (another nice drop. Hopefully this means we are passing the peak at last...)
6-3 .... 1,103,971 ... -23,201 (NICE BIG DROP!!!)
May 30th might really be IT.
So far, (fingers crossed,) it looks like we may have passed a peak on May 30th.
We need to keep practicing good social distancing measures. Our efforts appear to be working. This would be a really bad time to pretend it is all over, though. We still had over a 1000 Americans die yesterday, and over 20,000 new cases identified. We like that the number of serious / critical cases has fallen below 17K, but only just barely.
BartenderElite
Verified User
If we don't see a spike after these protests, there might be something else at play here. Maybe warmer weather, maybe a bit of herd immunity, or maybe many more simply had it than thought - but we have had a week of huge crowds not practicing social distancing, at all.
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Hello Nordberg,
Part of the problem is the lack of testing. That's a big problem because without adequate testing you don't have the true picture. It is widely agreed that the true numbers are far higher than the testing shows.
Cawacko made a good comment. He asked where are the pictures of long lines of cars at existing testing sites, demanding more testing? We don't have those pictures. People are not demanding more testing. Many likely have or had the virus and never got tested. And there is good reason to avoid testing. If you suspect you have the virus and get tested you are going to have your life scrutinized. They are going to want to trace all your contacts. Everywhere you went and who you saw becomes public knowledge. People don't like that. They like their privacy.
For testing to work well in the USA there has to be some kind of incentive. For Americans that means money. The government should be paying people to get tested. If we did that, you would see great demand for testing. Then we would get better data.
It is entirely possible we have already reached herd immunity and simply don't know it. Time will tell. It could have peaked before we ever got testing rolled out in big numbers, and our rise in identified Active Cases merely reflected the rate at which we rolled out testing. Time will tell.
Part of the problem is the lack of testing. That's a big problem because without adequate testing you don't have the true picture. It is widely agreed that the true numbers are far higher than the testing shows.
Cawacko made a good comment. He asked where are the pictures of long lines of cars at existing testing sites, demanding more testing? We don't have those pictures. People are not demanding more testing. Many likely have or had the virus and never got tested. And there is good reason to avoid testing. If you suspect you have the virus and get tested you are going to have your life scrutinized. They are going to want to trace all your contacts. Everywhere you went and who you saw becomes public knowledge. People don't like that. They like their privacy.
For testing to work well in the USA there has to be some kind of incentive. For Americans that means money. The government should be paying people to get tested. If we did that, you would see great demand for testing. Then we would get better data.
It is entirely possible we have already reached herd immunity and simply don't know it. Time will tell. It could have peaked before we ever got testing rolled out in big numbers, and our rise in identified Active Cases merely reflected the rate at which we rolled out testing. Time will tell.
PoliTalker
Diversity Makes Greatness
Hello BartenderElite,
Naturally it is expected that participation in close proximity group activities will lead to increased transmission, but what is unclear is the percentage of the population that is out there doing that. Most protestors are younger, less vulnerable to COVID-19. They may get the disease but not know it. It could take some time before they might transmit it to others. It could be hard to tell if that creates a noticeable spike in the national data or not.
It does help that the protests are outside, and that people tend not to be in close proximity with specific others for a long duration. Time will tell in the data.
Naturally it is expected that participation in close proximity group activities will lead to increased transmission, but what is unclear is the percentage of the population that is out there doing that. Most protestors are younger, less vulnerable to COVID-19. They may get the disease but not know it. It could take some time before they might transmit it to others. It could be hard to tell if that creates a noticeable spike in the national data or not.
It does help that the protests are outside, and that people tend not to be in close proximity with specific others for a long duration. Time will tell in the data.