The Democratic wave is growing, just how big will it be?

Irthriuth said:
I mean you can have your status quo. I don’t give a shit about the house... with the senate we can keep putting judges through and maybe we’ll get a third Supreme Court pick. Maybe Thomas steps down and we get to re up for another 30 years. You can have the house.

Its it’s not impossible for dems to take the senate, just highly unlikely. But 7%? Possible. Again, this is the same lesson I keep trying to teach you, rare things happen all the time. But the more important point is that while dems taking house and pubs keeping senate is the most likely outcome, there is a greater chance collectively that we see pubs keep both houses, dem take both houses, or the super rare head scratcher of pubs keeping house but dems taking senate.
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on the ReTrumpAgain train
 
cawacko said:
Thank you for the lesson showing us Presidential elections are decided differently than Congressional elections. There's been a lot of confusion about it
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You're welcome, trumpsters always need education ignorance is what makes him trumpsters.
 
katzgar said:
this is the sort of place where your lack of Education comes in. The pollsters didn't fail did they
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LOL. I'll give you 3/10 for the effort. But bro you need to step it up. You're making education in Louisiana look worse than it already is and that's hard to do
 
blackascoal said:
Washington (CNN)With Labor Day rapidly approaching, one thing is becoming clear: All signs point to the Democratic wave growing rather than shrinking in the final weeks of the 2018 election.

Point #1: A new CNN poll shows Democrats with an 11-point edge on the generic ballot, a margin that, if history is any guide, promises major gains for the minority party. By comparison, Republicans held a 49%-43% edge on the generic ballot in the final CNN poll before the 2010 election, before the party picked up more than 60 seats that year. In the final CNN poll before the 2006 election -- where Democrats netted 30 seats -- the party had a 15-point generic ballot edge.

The generic ballot question -- "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district" -- has functioned, largely effectively, as a sort of political weather vane. It tells us which way the wind is blowing and how strongly.

Point #2: Quinnipiac University has a new national poll out as well -- showing Democrats with a 9-point edge on the generic ballot. Self-identified independents -- traditionally the swing voting bloc in most elections -- favor a Democrat over a Republican by 12 points.

Point #3: The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapping site, moved three more House races in Democrats' favor on Wednesday. According to Cook's House editor, David Wasserman, the moves now mean that there are "37 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or more vulnerable (Lean/Likely Dem), nearly double the 20 we counted in January." In short: The playing field is getting bigger. And all the vulnerability is on the Republican side.

There's a tendency to avoid making any hard and fast predictions about where this election is headed because a) the old cliche that a month is like a year in politics and b) every "proven" quantitative measure showed Donald Trump losing in 2016 right before he won.

At the same time, there's very little evidence historically to suggest that the underlying dynamics of election cycles change much in their last 90 days or so -- barring some sort of catastrophic national or international event. Wrote Cook Political Report namesake Charlie Cook prophetically last week:
"In modern history, we've never seen a directional change in the last three months of a midterm election campaign. Waves can stay the same or increase in the closing months, but they don't reverse direction or dissipate."
https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/15/politics/democratic-wave-growing-analysis/index.html
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if there was a wave shouldn't they have won something?.....
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Oh I would love to see a conservative SCOTUS over turn Roe. Talk about the Fox in the henhouse.
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I think the worry of that is very overblown. stare decisis is a thing. abortion has been held up for a long time in more than one case. then even if it were overturned a lot of states would have it legal anyway. the states where it would be illegal would for the most part be states that overwhelmingly want it to be such. it's the lefts biggest chicken little issue by far.
 
blackascoal said:
Washington (CNN)With Labor Day rapidly approaching, one thing is becoming clear: All signs point to the Democratic wave growing rather than shrinking in the final weeks of the 2018 election.

Point #1: A new CNN poll shows Democrats with an 11-point edge on the generic ballot, a margin that, if history is any guide, promises major gains for the minority party. By comparison, Republicans held a 49%-43% edge on the generic ballot in the final CNN poll before the 2010 election, before the party picked up more than 60 seats that year. In the final CNN poll before the 2006 election -- where Democrats netted 30 seats -- the party had a 15-point generic ballot edge.

The generic ballot question -- "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your Congressional district" -- has functioned, largely effectively, as a sort of political weather vane. It tells us which way the wind is blowing and how strongly.

Point #2: Quinnipiac University has a new national poll out as well -- showing Democrats with a 9-point edge on the generic ballot. Self-identified independents -- traditionally the swing voting bloc in most elections -- favor a Democrat over a Republican by 12 points.

Point #3: The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapping site, moved three more House races in Democrats' favor on Wednesday. According to Cook's House editor, David Wasserman, the moves now mean that there are "37 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or more vulnerable (Lean/Likely Dem), nearly double the 20 we counted in January." In short: The playing field is getting bigger. And all the vulnerability is on the Republican side.

There's a tendency to avoid making any hard and fast predictions about where this election is headed because a) the old cliche that a month is like a year in politics and b) every "proven" quantitative measure showed Donald Trump losing in 2016 right before he won.

At the same time, there's very little evidence historically to suggest that the underlying dynamics of election cycles change much in their last 90 days or so -- barring some sort of catastrophic national or international event. Wrote Cook Political Report namesake Charlie Cook prophetically last week:
"In modern history, we've never seen a directional change in the last three months of a midterm election campaign. Waves can stay the same or increase in the closing months, but they don't reverse direction or dissipate."
https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/15/politics/democratic-wave-growing-analysis/index.html
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Micawber said:
If there is no huge backlash, this country is totally fucked and can never lead the free world. It will mean that the total idiot hillbilly uneducated
redneck gullible asshole loser factor is far to ingrained to be remedied by the visceral, visible, total inanity and foolishness that has been displayed without consequence.
It's that critical. It's like a nuclear bomb nailing DC and people whistling and acting like nothing is wrong. I hope people notice this nuclear war on the USA
by Republicans.
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:laugh:
 
Irthriuth said:
I think the worry of that is very overblown. stare decisis is a thing. abortion has been held up for a long time in more than one case. then even if it were overturned a lot of states would have it legal anyway. the states where it would be illegal would for the most part be states that overwhelmingly want it to be such. it's the lefts biggest chicken little issue by far.
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do you think there's a thirty percent chance?......
 
PostmodernProphet said:
if there was a wave shouldn't they have won something?.....
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