The Democratic wave is growing, just how big will it be?

Mott the Hoople said:
My cynical prediction, and boy should that be taken with a grain of salt, is that Democrats will gain just enough ground to barely lose winning control of either house of Congress.

I’ve seen nothing to indicate they’ve learned the lesson from 2016. Democrats have been losing elections but winning the culture wars for quite some time now. Dems have done a great job of expanding the scope of individual liberties.

So why do they lose elections then? Because they have abandoned a focus on expanding the economic liberties, and protecting them, for working and middle class people. Instead of fighting for our fair share of the economic pie, Democrats have been fighting, and winning, for the rights of transgender people to pee in the bathroom of their choice and progressive socialism.

These are battles Republicans are more than willing to lose as long as they get to keep all the money.

Trump won election by demonizing immigrants and foreigners and by using economic populism. He co-opted the economic bread and butter kitchen table economics that Democrats abandoned.

I’ve seen nothing to indicate that Democrats have learned their lesson. What I’ve seen is a Democratic Party doubling down on Identity politics and hoping Trump will be such a slug that he’ll hang him self.

So what I see is Republicans keeping control of both houses by a narrow margin and, unless something dramatic changes, Trump winning re-election. A combination of progressive socialism and identity politics is a sure loser.
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I'm pretty sure the Dems will win the House by sheer numbers. But this is a very good analysis of the dynamics
 
Micawber said:
The issue that drove people to vote for Trump was foolish jingoism America is going to be great BY sticking it to the Chinese, blacks, Mexican illegals and Obama.
Dems cannot address that policy choice that got Trump voters to the polls. Every politician and party promised and promises jobs, the only difference with Trump
is he lied bigly and morons bought it. How much "it's going to be great, you all will each get a solid gold rocket ship" nonsense do dems need to deliver to these
inbreds. If we can't win honestly and without racism, or politicking like Adolf Hitler with an open checkbook, I'd rather lose.
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"If we can't win honestly and without racism, or politicking like Adolf Hitler with an open checkbook, I'd rather lose."

hahaha ... Great. You and the Republicans have something in common, ... they'd rather you lose too. :(
 
Mott the Hoople said:
I'm speaking of the the approximately dozen special elections that were held around the country last week. They were all held in Republican districts and Democrats made serious in roads to all of these districts....but only won one.
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And the calculation I've seen is that the majority of districts up in this midterm are very weak Republican or Centrist
 
If forced to bet I'd say the democrats would win the House but Chris Cinchilla also predicted Hillary winning in 2016. He's just doubling down now?
 
katzgar said:
And the calculation I've seen is that the majority of districts up in this midterm are very weak Republican or Centrist
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Oh there is plenty of room for optimism for Democrats. Having a big swing over to Democrats is far more important in 2020 than in 2018. Particularly at the State level. I wouldn’t bet money on either. I’m just not confident about Dems winning.
 
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Nate silver was talking about the paradox of plurality last night on twitter and the interesting thing I took away from it is that while the most likely outcome is dems taking the house and republicans keeping the senate, it’s actually more likely that one of those scenarios is wrong.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
My cynical prediction, and boy should that be taken with a grain of salt, is that Democrats will gain just enough ground to barely lose winning control of either house of Congress.

I’ve seen nothing to indicate they’ve learned the lesson from 2016. Democrats have been losing elections but winning the culture wars for quite some time now. Dems have done a great job of expanding the scope of individual liberties.

So why do they lose elections then? Because they have abandoned a focus on expanding the economic liberties, and protecting them, for working and middle class people. Instead of fighting for our fair share of the economic pie, Democrats have been fighting, and winning, for the rights of transgender people to pee in the bathroom of their choice and progressive socialism.

These are battles Republicans are more than willing to lose as long as they get to keep all the money.

Trump won election by demonizing immigrants and foreigners and by using economic populism. He co-opted the economic bread and butter kitchen table economics that Democrats abandoned.

I’ve seen nothing to indicate that Democrats have learned their lesson. What I’ve seen is a Democratic Party doubling down on Identity politics and hoping Trump will be such a slug that he’ll hang him self.

So what I see is Republicans keeping control of both houses by a narrow margin and, unless something dramatic changes, Trump winning re-election. A combination of progressive socialism and identity politics is a sure loser.
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There is a lot of time between here and there and lots of tricks up people's sleeves, we will soon see.
 
cawacko said:
If forced to bet I'd say the democrats would win the House but Chris Cinchilla also predicted Hillary winning in 2016. He's just doubling down now?
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the only thing trump won is the EC, Clinton won the votes. The EC doesnt matter in the mid terms.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Oh there is plenty of room for optimism for Democrats. Having a big swing over to Democrats is far more important in 2020 than in 2018. Particularly at the State level. I wouldn’t bet money on either. I’m just not confident about Dems winning.
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I cant say I am hugely confident either but if the dems take the house hearings and investigations will lay out as far as you can see.
 
katzgar said:
the only thing trump won is the EC, Clinton won the votes. The EC doesnt matter in the mid terms.
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Thank you for the lesson showing us Presidential elections are decided differently than Congressional elections. There's been a lot of confusion about it
 
Irthriuth said:
Nate silver was talking about the paradox of plurality last night on twitter and the interesting thing I took away from it is that while the most likely outcome is dems taking the house and republicans keeping the senate, it’s actually more likely that one of those scenarios is wrong.
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The Senate is out for Dems. And that's not just a partisan setting-low-expectation thing. The logistics & seats they have to protect are fairly overwhelming.

Anything less than a 2 seat gain would actually be catastrophic for the GOP, imo. Status quo would be amazing for Dems.
 
Thing1 said:
The Senate is out for Dems. And that's not just a partisan setting-low-expectation thing. The logistics & seats they have to protect are fairly overwhelming.

Anything less than a 2 seat gain would actually be catastrophic for the GOP, imo. Status quo would be amazing for Dems.
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I mean you can have your status quo. I don’t give a shit about the house... with the senate we can keep putting judges through and maybe we’ll get a third Supreme Court pick. Maybe Thomas steps down and we get to re up for another 30 years. You can have the house.

Its it’s not impossible for dems to take the senate, just highly unlikely. But 7%? Possible. Again, this is the same lesson I keep trying to teach you, rare things happen all the time. But the more important point is that while dems taking house and pubs keeping senate is the most likely outcome, there is a greater chance collectively that we see pubs keep both houses, dem take both houses, or the super rare head scratcher of pubs keeping house but dems taking senate.
 
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