Yield on 30 year T-bond at 5 year high. 10 year at 7 year high

[Text Drivers are Killers]

This is good news for our cratering pension system but very very bad news for the housing and stock markets.


https://www.businessinsider.com/bon...-everyones-biggest-fear-about-markets-2018-10

 

[Micawber]

Isn't that a sign stocks have peaked?

 

[Jack]

I heard something about "Yield Curve" ... anybody know anything about that?

 

[Lightbringer]

Isn't that a sign stocks have peaked?

No, not at all. It's generally a sign that the T-bonds aren't an attractive investment and the government is trying to drum up some bidness.

 

[cawacko]

I heard something about "Yield Curve" ... anybody know anything about that?

if the yield curve inverts it's often a sign a recession is coming

an inverted yield curve occurs when long term debt has lower rates than short term debt with the same credit

 

[jimmymccready]

Yes, a recession is most likely coming.

 

[Jack]

if the yield curve inverts it's often a sign a recession is coming

an inverted yield curve occurs when long term debt has lower rates than short term debt with the same credit

Thanks, cawacko. I always here something about "the Yield Curve flattening", or the "Yield Curve is steepening", or "the Yield Curve might invert", but really not sure what that is all about. It's like the Chartists talking about "Head and Shoulders" or "Cup and Handle".

 

[Lightbringer]

Yes, a recession is most likely coming.

Why do you think so?

 

[Text Drivers are Killers]

It's not gonna be a recession or a depression. Much worse. The world's financial system will have to be reset.

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

This is good news for our cratering pension system but very very bad news for the housing and stock markets.


https://www.businessinsider.com/bon...-everyones-biggest-fear-about-markets-2018-10

It means people do not trust our bonds anymore because you're turning the dollar into monopoly money in your desire to print it like mad and sent it to rich people's bank accounts.

 

[Superfreak]

I heard something about "Yield Curve" ... anybody know anything about that?

Yes, it is a graph of the difference in yields from the 90 day tbill out to the 30 year treasury. Right now the curve is relatively flat... meaning there is little difference in yield between the longer and shorter maturities. Typically in a strong economic environment, you would see a steeper curve at this point.

 

[Superfreak]

As for the OP, no, we are not at five year highs. The yield was about 3.9% at the tail end of 2013. The yield throughout 2014 was higher than it is today. Though we are getting closer to that level.

 

[Superfreak]

No, not at all. It's generally a sign that the T-bonds aren't an attractive investment and the government is trying to drum up some bidness.

The problem right now is there is too MUCH interest in the long bond. Predominantly due to the fact that our bond yields are greater than that of any other 'safe' piece of sovereign debt. (think Germany, UK, Japan etc...)

 

[Superfreak]

Why do you think so?

The most likely factor to spark a recession will be wage inflation. The labor market is extremely tight right now. Unless labor participation rate spikes back up, wage inflation will likely start showing up next year (latter half).

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

The most likely factor to spark a recession will be wage inflation. The labor market is extremely tight right now. Unless labor participation rate spikes back up, wage inflation will likely start showing up next year (latter half).

Oh the horror, wages rise after 50 years of stagnation as the owners of capital take all the money for themselves in rent.

We need to nationalize all capital and send the 1% to reeducation camps. The income belongs to the workers. Owners produce nothing.

 

[Superfreak]

Oh the horror, wages rise after 50 years of stagnation as the owners of capital take all the money for themselves in rent.

We need to nationalize all capital and send the 1% to reeducation camps. The income belongs to the workers. Owners produce nothing.

The stupidity of the above is astounding.

 

[Lightbringer]

The most likely factor to spark a recession will be wage inflation. The labor market is extremely tight right now. Unless labor participation rate spikes back up, wage inflation will likely start showing up next year (latter half).

I'm not convinced the labor market is tight right now and I think wages are lower than they should be. Operating capital doesn't seem to be a problem and business from what I've read is up around the world (except for China) so I think things are looking good for awhile.

 

[Superfreak]

I'm not convinced the labor market is tight right now and I think wages are lower than they should be. Operating capital doesn't seem to be a problem and business from what I've read is up around the world (except for China) so I think things are looking good for awhile.

It is tight right now. Again, in large part due to labor participation rate still being a couple points lower than it was in 2007. If that adjusts back up, then it will reduce the strain. If not, wage inflation will become a concern.

 

[Text Drivers are Killers]

As for the OP, no, we are not at five year highs. The yield was about 3.9% at the tail end of 2013. The yield throughout 2014 was higher than it is today. Though we are getting closer to that level.

You are liar. The end of 2013 is the highest the 30year has been since.

 

[Jack]

Oh the horror, wages rise after 50 years of stagnation as the owners of capital take all the money for themselves in rent.

We need to nationalize all capital and send the 1% to reeducation camps. The income belongs to the workers. Owners produce nothing.

Sweet Jesus, Mother of God!
Grind was RIGHT about 'Court Packing'!