World's most accurate economist' predicts if Trump or Harris will win 2024 election
- Thread starter Earl
- Start date
He uses a model that combines economic, financial and satellite data, as well as back-tests and outside models, Barraud told Business Insider.
Barraud also factors in what the betting markets have said about the elections, valuing the ones that get the most action. Betting markets have been bullish on Trump for most of the year.
What would happen with the economy should Trump win and the Republicans take power over Congress?
Barraud has predicted a GDP boost anywhere from 2.1-2.3% in 2025 after Trump implements tax cuts.
He does worry, however, about the ever-increasing US deficit and where it goes if Trump enacts tax cuts.
The economist's other forecasts include Trump winning, but a divided Congress, which would limit the president's power and force him to focus most of his time on foreign policy.
Tariffs - a huge part of the Trump economic plan - would be enacted sooner than many think, according to Barraud, hurting growth globally and potentially hurting the economy long term.
His third most likely scenario, a Harris victory and a divided Congress, would leave the economy in a status quo, with little expected to change.
Barraud also factors in what the betting markets have said about the elections, valuing the ones that get the most action. Betting markets have been bullish on Trump for most of the year.
What would happen with the economy should Trump win and the Republicans take power over Congress?
Barraud has predicted a GDP boost anywhere from 2.1-2.3% in 2025 after Trump implements tax cuts.
He does worry, however, about the ever-increasing US deficit and where it goes if Trump enacts tax cuts.
The economist's other forecasts include Trump winning, but a divided Congress, which would limit the president's power and force him to focus most of his time on foreign policy.
Tariffs - a huge part of the Trump economic plan - would be enacted sooner than many think, according to Barraud, hurting growth globally and potentially hurting the economy long term.
His third most likely scenario, a Harris victory and a divided Congress, would leave the economy in a status quo, with little expected to change.
ExpressLane
Verified User
October Jobs was TERRIBLE just 12,000 jobs the predicted was 113,000 that is 101,000 down.
Indeed and the bad economy will tilt the election to Trump.
The border crisis is second and Americans are being assaulted, raped and murdered by illegals who have no legal right to be in America, thanks to the Biden/Harris Administration’s open borders and sanctuary cities.
3 years of huge employment gains and dropping inflation. Forget them. this is the only one that counts. Do you understand how your "logic: fails?
Inflation is 20% higher than when Biden/Harris took office, Nordy.
Biden's big inflation problem: Prices are now up nearly 20% ...
Yahoo Finance
https://finance.yahoo.com › news › bidens-big-inflation...
May 16, 2024 — Prices as measured by the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) are now up over 19.4% in the three-plus years since Biden took office.