Really?
USA Today's reporter
Dennis Cauchon knows how to sell newspapers: just put a huge-looking number like "$59 trillion" in a headline about how much US taxpayers will have to come up with to cover social insurance programs. Here's the article that got so much attention yesterday.
Conspicuously absent was any mention about how much time taxpayers would have to come up with the money, or the estimated tax receipts that would flow into the government over that time period.
I hunted and hunted in Cauchon's article for a reference or link to those (and other) important assumptions behind the $59 trillion; no luck. Then I hunted and hunted for Dennis Cauchon's email address or telephone number, so I could ask him directly; no luck there, either.
I hope he sees this article, so he can send me an email explaining those important little tidbits behind their analysis. Reason: Just as any mortgage holder plans to pay the mortgage gradually over a period of years out of future income—instead of coming up with the money tomorrow—so does the federal government plan to pay the social insurance costs gradually over a period of years out of future tax receipts—instead of coming up with the money tomorrow. The scary-sounding "unfunded promises" really means "future costs to be funded out of future tax receipts"—although the article doesn't explain that.
Just for fun, I added up how much tax revenue the federal government would collect between now and 2052 (the approximate timeframe it looks like USA Today's analysis covered), for various productivity growth scenarios. After verifying the timeframe, all I'll need to know is the discount factor USA Today used on the way to their $59 trillion result. After that, we can see what portion of future tax receipts will be required to pay the future social insurance costs. For reference, it takes 15% of tax receipts today.
Dennis Cauchon
USA Today’s dishonest statistical analysis reinforces ‘public workers as welfare queens’ meme
Holland goes on to smash USA Today’s ‘analysis’ by showing how reporter Dennis Cauchon compared public and private wages without controlling for any of these other factors to conclude, “Wisconsin is one of 41 states where public employees earn higher average pay and benefits than private workers in the same state, a USA TODAY analysis finds.”