Why wages are finally picking up. And will it last?

[Darth Omar]

As I pointed out to you in your other thread Wages have risen exactly as much as inflation has in the last year. Trump isn't burning up the economy. These are cost of living increases. When the census releases its report later this month, you will most likely see median household income slipped in 2017 if industry experts who follow these things are correct in their predictions.

There’s the economy according to the bean counters and there’s the economy according to people living and working in it.

Consumer confidence is at an 18 year high. The stock market is cruising, people who were unemployed under Obama are back to work.

 

[Irish Exit]

There’s the economy according to the bean counters and there’s the economy according to people living and working in it.

Consumer confidence is at an 18 year high. The stock market is cruising, people who were unemployed under Obama are back to work.

Consumer confidence isn't economic data. It likely reflects more confidence in the respondents' job security feelings than anything else, though the Michigan consumer sentiments numbers have it an an 11 month low. Overall, CC continued to rise under Obama even when there was nothing objective to support the sentiments going on in the economy. It was more a fake it til we make it attitude at best. Eventually the 6-7% drop in exports will have real consequences. The GOP better hope the numbers don't drop and send the markets into a freefall the day before the November 2016 election.

 

[tsuke]

The federal minimum wage is still $7.25 an hour?!! I would not get out of bed for $7.25 an hour!
So why do we still a subhuman minimum wage, if wages are picking up?!!

because it doesnt just hit big corporations.

 

[tsuke]

Consumer confidence isn't economic data. It likely reflects more confidence in the respondents' job security feelings than anything else, though the Michigan consumer sentiments numbers have it an an 11 month low. Overall, CC continued to rise under Obama even when there was nothing objective to support the sentiments going on in the economy. It was more a fake it til we make it attitude at best. Eventually the 6-7% drop in exports will have real consequences. The GOP better hope the numbers don't drop and send the markets into a freefall the day before the November 2016 election.

fake it till you make it is exactly how the economy runs. We are driven by consumer spending. If people feel better about their position they spend more and economy improves also vice versa.

This is why I place such a big deal on the right track/wrong track polls.

 

[Darth Omar]

Consumer confidence isn't economic data. It likely reflects more confidence in the respondents' job security feelings than anything else, though the Michigan consumer sentiments numbers have it an an 11 month low. Overall, CC continued to rise under Obama even when there was nothing objective to support the sentiments going on in the economy. It was more a fake it til we make it attitude at best. Eventually the 6-7% drop in exports will have real consequences. The GOP better hope the numbers don't drop and send the markets into a freefall the day before the November 2016 election.

I hold economic gurus in some esteem—more or less equal to climatologists lol.

 

[Irish Exit]

fake it till you make it is exactly how the economy runs. We are driven by consumer spending. If people feel better about their position they spend more and economy improves also vice versa.

This is why I place such a big deal on the right track/wrong track polls.

It is driven by credit spending. The fed increases trigger credit card rate increases for most consumers. If the economy is strengthening, the rates will continue to rise to put more leeway in the fed toolbox for the next recession. I, however, sense that banks are going to disproportionately raise rates over the coming year. A lot of folks are anticipating a colder than normal winter for the eastern half of the country that will further give people less money to spend at Wally World. You see what you want to see. I see what I want to see. I see things turning south for awhile. I suspect the market does too since we have seen a few cases recently in which companies that beat earnings saw their stocks prices drop because their total revenues were down.

 

[Althea]

Increases in worker productivity were divorced from worker compensation back in the early 1970s, and worker wages have never recouped in terms of buying power, which is actually less than it was in 1975. But your corporate state owned media prolly won't get around to that and you won't go digging.

Gotta love those who throw around numbers, without understanding them. According to the link, actual buying power is up .6 percent after inflation.

But just for fun, let's pretend that wages/buying power are up 3%.

Work 40 hours at $10/hr. A veteran Walmart worker with 5 years in.

Last year, take home $400/week.

This year, take home $412/week.

Finally! The wealth gap closes!

 

[Irish Exit]

I hold economic gurus in some esteem—more or less equal to climatologists lol.

That is your choice.

 

[Althea]

There’s the economy according to the bean counters and there’s the economy according to people living and working in it.

Consumer confidence is at an 18 year high. The stock market is cruising, people who were unemployed under Obama are back to work.

Nonsense.

 

[tsuke]

It is driven by credit spending. The fed increases trigger credit card rate increases for most consumers. If the economy is strengthening, the rates will continue to rise to put more leeway in the fed toolbox for the next recession. I, however, sense that banks are going to disproportionately raise rates over the coming year. A lot of folks are anticipating a colder than normal winter for the eastern half of the country that will further give people less money to spend at Wally World. You see what you want to see. I see what I want to see. I see things turning south for awhile. I suspect the market does too since we have seen a few cases recently in which companies that beat earnings saw their stocks prices drop because their total revenues were down.

personally i dont see banks raising rates higher than what the fed forces on them. I think banks are careful with consumers now because the rate of credit card defaults are rising. I think everything will still look up for the next year or two as the US is still the best market in the world.

Exports going down doesnt matter all that much to me. It depends on where the export is coming from. For example the US exports stuff to Mexico for assembly and then imports it back. I would be totally fine if that export was removed because that meant that the assembly was done somewhere inside.

 

[Althea]

personally i dont see banks raising rates higher than what the fed forces on them. I think banks are careful with consumers now because the rate of credit card defaults are rising. I think everything will still look up for the next year or two as the US is still the best market in the world.

Exports going down doesnt matter all that much to me. It depends on where the export is coming from. For example the US exports stuff to Mexico for assembly and then imports it back. I would be totally fine if that export was removed because that meant that the assembly was done somewhere inside.

Drastically increasing auto prices, costing thousands of auto industry jobs.

 

[Nordberg]

TARP saved the auto industry. GM and Crysler were going under.
I hate bank bailouts -faied banks would have made the recession worse.

None of this is in topic that wages are finally getting workers more money -averaging 3% now.

Romney said don't help out autos, let them fight and die. How would that have worked out? When you are in a time of crisis, you try things to hope you can solve the problem.

The wage problem is an easy fix. Crank up the min. wage. If people get paid survival wages for work, then your taxes would drop. You would not have to pay for welfare and food stamps. Who would pay, the corporations and top 1 percent. Corporate proofuts are at all time highs. They are simply confiscating it for the execs and stockholders. The wealth gap is geater than the Gilded Age and Trump is making it worse. Stand up for workers fools. Stand up for yourselves.

 

[tsuke]

Drastically increasing auto prices, costing thousands of auto industry jobs.

alternatively forcing companies to eat the increased wages so they can still sell at competetive prices.

btw when you use this line of argument your actually arguing for slave labor somewhere in the world so we can buy stuff at reduced prices. Jus sayin.

 

[Irish Exit]

personally i dont see banks raising rates higher than what the fed forces on them. I think banks are careful with consumers now because the rate of credit card defaults are rising. I think everything will still look up for the next year or two as the US is still the best market in the world.

Exports going down doesnt matter all that much to me. It depends on where the export is coming from. For example the US exports stuff to Mexico for assembly and then imports it back. I would be totally fine if that export was removed because that meant that the assembly was done somewhere inside.

Which wouldn't be happening if things were all sunshine and puppy kisses in Dodge City.

 

[tsuke]

Which wouldn't be happening if things were all sunshine and puppy kisses in Dodge City.

not particularly. Things could be improving but people are just in too deep a hole.

 

[Althea]

alternatively forcing companies to eat the increased wages so they can still sell at competetive prices.

btw when you use this line of argument your actually arguing for slave labor somewhere in the world so we can buy stuff at reduced prices. Jus sayin.

Wrong. I'm arguing for what NAFTA was designed to do. Bolster the corn industry, at the cost of some manufacturing. Now Middle America is screwed, and soon the auto industry will follow.

 

[blackascoal]

Stagnating salaries: Real US wages are essentially back at 1974 levels, Pew reports
August 14, 2018

Forget the chatter about tight labor markets, low unemployment, and vastly improved productivity. Purchasing power for most Americans has stagnated for decades.

If you get a $1,200 annual raise on the same day that your rent goes up by $100 a month, you don't need an accountant to tell you that you didn't actually make any financial progress. And while that's an excessively simplified example, it's nonetheless a pretty fair representation of what has been happening to most American workers over the past four decades.

Even though the official unemployment rate has been hovering around record lows in recent years, wage growth has stayed stagnant, a new study from Pew Research reveals. In fact, the real average wage, which Pew defines as "the wage after accounting for inflation" has roughly the same purchasing power as it did 40 years ago. And while some workers have seen gains, most of the increases have gone to those who were already the highest-paid.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...s-wages-back-1974-levels-pew-report/37468497/

In U.S., wage growth is being wiped out entirely by inflation
August 10, 2018
https://www.washingtonpost.com/

 

[anatta]

As I pointed out to you in your other thread Wages have risen exactly as much as inflation has in the last year. Trump isn't burning up the economy. These are cost of living increases. When the census releases its report later this month, you will most likely see median household income slipped in 2017 if industry experts who follow these things are correct in their predictions.

your figures were wrong then and now. inflation is about 2.3% Wages are now up 2.9% and hopefully more.
* also quite a few sectors are more.
* also retiring boomers with higher wages are being replaced by millenials with lower wages -
- bringing down average wage growth.
* also "in kind" compensation is going up - but not reflected in wage growth.
* also tax cuts will be felt next year, but mean more take home pay now.
* also the number of jobs growth under Obama is about the same but higher paying jobs are increasing as well

 

[anatta]

Under Trump, the jobs boom has finally reached blue-collar workers.
Blue-collar jobs, long a small and shrinking part of the U.S. economy, are now growing at a faster clip than those in the nation's much larger service economy.
The biggest drivers of the blue-collar hiring surge are the rebound in oil prices, the need to rebuild after disasters such as Hurricanes Irma and Harvey, and rising demand generated by a growing economy.

In the past year, the economy has added 656,000 blue-collar jobs, compared with 1.7 million added in the services sector. But the rate of growth in blue-collar jobs is speeding up, while service-sector job growth has hovered around 1.3 percent over the past year.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...-workers-will-it-last/?utm_term=.8142baf4c812

blue collar jobs are skilled labor , and pay more then service sector, and usually have health insurance and sick time benefits etc.

again it's not just the number of jobs it's the quality of jobs growth that is impressive

 

[anatta]

Data Points To An Improving Economy
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4205111-data-points-improving-economy
Construction spending is a bellwether for recessions as projects are put on hold as the economy weakens. But generally construction spending's movement is coincident with GDP. Even though construction is not exactly going gangbusters, the improving trend is notable.

Another higher-than-I-expected data point this week was trade. Looking at inflation-adjusted data, both imports and exports have had an improving trend line since the beginning of 2016. What is notable from this data point is that July was the beginning of the trade wars - and even the effects on agriculture exports were minimal.