Why haven’t we detected a signal from intelligent aliens yet?

Uncensored2008 said:
Let's say there was an advanced civilization a mere 10 light years away - but it died out 5 billion years ago. We are dealing with vast distances and vast amounts of time. Even if there were millions of advanced civilizations across the galaxy, the chances of ever making contact are infinitesimally small.
Click to expand...
I don't think the idea realistically is to establish contact with a contemporaneous advanced civilization.

The idea is to monitor for signals that may have come from civilizations that existed in the past. There are probably hundreds of millions of star systems just within 5000 light years of Earth. The WOW signal detected at Ohio State University in 1977 has never been adequately explained, but was thought by at least some to be an artificial radio signal source. It came from somewhere in the Sagittarius constellation two thousand light years away. So if it was an artificial signal (highly debatable), it was from a civilization that existed thousands of years ago.
 
Damocles said:
When we do, it will be by chance. We probably haven't even touched more than 1% of the night sky. I also wonder how much red shift we'd have to adjust for in order to get some signal from stars that are moving...
Click to expand...
Red shift is not caused by stars moving away from us strictly speaking, it is caused by the space between galaxies and stars expanding. Since we have a pretty good handle on the Hubble Constant expansion of space, I don't see we would be fooled by radio, microwave, or visible EM since we can account for how much they are stretched before reaching Earth
 
Cypress said:

Why haven’t we detected a signal from intelligent aliens yet?​


  • Long ago, Enrico Fermi posed a simple question just by gazing at the stars: “Where is everybody?”
  • Known today as the Fermi Paradox, there are many possible solutions, but some explanations are far simpler than others: namely, that there isn’t anyone else.
  • Still, the most common way of estimating who’s out there, the Drake equation, should never be used. Here’s the science of how to do it right.
Before we even start asking questions about longevity, colonization, or machine-based life, we should admit — with a non-negligible probability — the most obvious resolution to the Fermi Paradox: The reason we haven’t made first contact with intelligent, technologically advanced, and spacefaring alien civilizations is because there are none. In all the galaxy, and perhaps even in all the Universe, we really may be alone.

Without evidence to the contrary, we have every reason to keep looking and searching, but still no reason other than our own preferences to believe that other creatures, similar to humans, exist out there. While it may be incredibly fun to theorize a myriad of possible explanations as to why intelligent extraterrestrials might remain hidden from us, the simplest possibility — that they just aren’t out there — should be the default hypothesis until proven otherwise.

full article:

bigthink.com

Why haven't we detected a signal from intelligent aliens yet?

Life arose on Earth early on, eventually giving rise to us: intelligent and technologically advanced. "First contact" still remains elusive.
bigthink.com bigthink.com
Click to expand...
The article below about Comet 3I/ATLAS led me to a paper that included the "Dark Forest" hypothesis which is a possible answer to Fermi's Paradox. While the theory is interesting, I see it as a combination of paranoia and project. Fearing hostile aliens has a long history in science fiction such as H.G. Wells' 1898 "War of the Worlds" up to the Red Scare era of SF movies including the classic "The Day the Earth Stood Still".

The paranoia probably stems from the knowledge of what Europeans did to indigenous tribes all over the planet through superior technology.

While it's an interesting theory, I'm not buying it. First, the distances are so great that anyone traveling them would essentially be making a one-way trip. Secondly, any civilization having the tech to complete such a feat would certainly be capable of solving any problems without taking from others.


modernengineeringmarvels.com

Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS Reveals Rare Anti-Tail Near Perihelion

The orbital eccentricity of Comet 3I/ATLAS is an incredible 6.15, well beyond the threshold of 1 that marks escape from the Sun’s gravity. That single number confirms its status as a visitor …
modernengineeringmarvels.com modernengineeringmarvels.com
3I/ATLAS is likely to have its origin in the thick disk of the Milky Way and is thus an ancient fragment from a distant planetary system. Its size is still uncertain; Hubble data constrain the nucleus to be between 440 meters and 5.6 kilometres in diameter. A body of such dimensions, combined with its speed and trajectory, puts it beyond the reach of any current intercept mission.

July 17, 2025
At this early stage of its passage through our Solar System, 3I/ATLAS, the recently discovered interstellar interloper, has displayed various anomalous characteristics, determined from photometric and astrometric observations. As largely a pedagogical exercise, in this paper we present additional analysis into the astrodynamics of 3I/ATLAS, and hypothesize that this object could be technological, and possibly hostile as would be expected from the ’Dark Forest’ resolution to the ’Fermi Paradox’. We show that 3I/ATLAS approaches surprisingly close to Venus, Mars and Jupiter, with a probability of ≲ 0.005%. Furthermore the low retrograde tilt of 3I/ATLAS’s orbital plane to the ecliptic offers various benefits to an Extra-terrestrial Intelligence (ETI), since it allows the object access to our planet with relative impunity. The eclipse by the Sun from Earth of 3I/ATLAS at perihelion, would allow it to conduct a clandestine reverse Solar Oberth Manoeuvre, an optimal high-thrust strategy for interstellar spacecraft to brake and stay bound to the Sun. An optimal intercept of Earth would entail an arrival in late November/early December of 2025, and also, a non-gravitational acceleration of ∼ 5.9 × 10−5 auday−2, normalized at 1 au from the Sun, would indicate an intent to intercept the planet Jupiter, not far off its path, and a strategy to rendezvous with it after perihelion

Dark forest hypothesis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
The dark forest hypothesis is the idea that extraterrestrial civilizations may exist in abundance across the universe, but remain silent and hidden out of fear that revealing themselves would lead to destruction by a more technologically advanced and hostile civilization.[1] It is one of several proposed explanations of the Fermi paradox, which contrasts the high probability of extraterrestrial life with the lack of evidence for it. The hypothesis derives its name from Liu Cixin's 2008 novel The Dark Forest[2] although similar concepts predate the work
 
Cypress said:

Why haven’t we detected a signal from intelligent aliens yet?​


  • Long ago, Enrico Fermi posed a simple question just by gazing at the stars: “Where is everybody?”
  • Known today as the Fermi Paradox, there are many possible solutions, but some explanations are far simpler than others: namely, that there isn’t anyone else.
  • Still, the most common way of estimating who’s out there, the Drake equation, should never be used. Here’s the science of how to do it right.
Before we even start asking questions about longevity, colonization, or machine-based life, we should admit — with a non-negligible probability — the most obvious resolution to the Fermi Paradox: The reason we haven’t made first contact with intelligent, technologically advanced, and spacefaring alien civilizations is because there are none. In all the galaxy, and perhaps even in all the Universe, we really may be alone.

Without evidence to the contrary, we have every reason to keep looking and searching, but still no reason other than our own preferences to believe that other creatures, similar to humans, exist out there. While it may be incredibly fun to theorize a myriad of possible explanations as to why intelligent extraterrestrials might remain hidden from us, the simplest possibility — that they just aren’t out there — should be the default hypothesis until proven otherwise.

full article:

bigthink.com

Why haven't we detected a signal from intelligent aliens yet?

Life arose on Earth early on, eventually giving rise to us: intelligent and technologically advanced. "First contact" still remains elusive.
bigthink.com bigthink.com
Click to expand...
How do we know they are "intelligent?" :palm:
 
Dutch Uncle said:
The article below about Comet 3I/ATLAS led me to a paper that included the "Dark Forest" hypothesis which is a possible answer to Fermi's Paradox. While the theory is interesting, I see it as a combination of paranoia and project. Fearing hostile aliens has a long history in science fiction such as H.G. Wells' 1898 "War of the Worlds" up to the Red Scare era of SF movies including the classic "The Day the Earth Stood Still".

The paranoia probably stems from the knowledge of what Europeans did to indigenous tribes all over the planet through superior technology.

While it's an interesting theory, I'm not buying it. First, the distances are so great that anyone traveling them would essentially be making a one-way trip. Secondly, any civilization having the tech to complete such a feat would certainly be capable of solving any problems without taking from others.


modernengineeringmarvels.com

Interstellar Comet 3I/ATLAS Reveals Rare Anti-Tail Near Perihelion

The orbital eccentricity of Comet 3I/ATLAS is an incredible 6.15, well beyond the threshold of 1 that marks escape from the Sun’s gravity. That single number confirms its status as a visitor …
modernengineeringmarvels.com modernengineeringmarvels.com
3I/ATLAS is likely to have its origin in the thick disk of the Milky Way and is thus an ancient fragment from a distant planetary system. Its size is still uncertain; Hubble data constrain the nucleus to be between 440 meters and 5.6 kilometres in diameter. A body of such dimensions, combined with its speed and trajectory, puts it beyond the reach of any current intercept mission.

July 17, 2025
At this early stage of its passage through our Solar System, 3I/ATLAS, the recently discovered interstellar interloper, has displayed various anomalous characteristics, determined from photometric and astrometric observations. As largely a pedagogical exercise, in this paper we present additional analysis into the astrodynamics of 3I/ATLAS, and hypothesize that this object could be technological, and possibly hostile as would be expected from the ’Dark Forest’ resolution to the ’Fermi Paradox’. We show that 3I/ATLAS approaches surprisingly close to Venus, Mars and Jupiter, with a probability of ≲ 0.005%. Furthermore the low retrograde tilt of 3I/ATLAS’s orbital plane to the ecliptic offers various benefits to an Extra-terrestrial Intelligence (ETI), since it allows the object access to our planet with relative impunity. The eclipse by the Sun from Earth of 3I/ATLAS at perihelion, would allow it to conduct a clandestine reverse Solar Oberth Manoeuvre, an optimal high-thrust strategy for interstellar spacecraft to brake and stay bound to the Sun. An optimal intercept of Earth would entail an arrival in late November/early December of 2025, and also, a non-gravitational acceleration of ∼ 5.9 × 10−5 auday−2, normalized at 1 au from the Sun, would indicate an intent to intercept the planet Jupiter, not far off its path, and a strategy to rendezvous with it after perihelion

Dark forest hypothesis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
The dark forest hypothesis is the idea that extraterrestrial civilizations may exist in abundance across the universe, but remain silent and hidden out of fear that revealing themselves would lead to destruction by a more technologically advanced and hostile civilization.[1] It is one of several proposed explanations of the Fermi paradox, which contrasts the high probability of extraterrestrial life with the lack of evidence for it. The hypothesis derives its name from Liu Cixin's 2008 novel The Dark Forest[2] although similar concepts predate the work
Click to expand...
Love this topic.

I agree with you that the Dark Forest hypothesis is weak. Anytime you assign human emotions to alien life that's anthropormorphizing, and interstellar distances are already a defensive buffer in much the same way the Atlantic and Pacific oceans were defensive barriers for the United States.
 
Cypress said:
To the high school and college educated, the title of the article is obviously speaking about the subset of life that may be sentient and technologically advanced.

They are not writing about microbes, lower animals.
Click to expand...
As discussed on previous occasions, the Red Queen hypothesis indicates that, among other things, once life begins, it will continue evolving until it becomes sentient in an effort to avoid extinction by becoming prey.

The conceptual basis of the Red Queen hypothesis is that species (or populations) must continually evolve new adaptations in response to evolutionary changes in other organisms to avoid extinction.

www.sciencedirect.com

The evolution of rationality and the Red Queen

Strategic rationality is subjected here to natural selection. In a zero-sum repeated game of incomplete information, one long-run individual is inform…
www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com
A central mystery of evolutionary biology concerns the extraordinary intelligence of human beings. High intelligence may be valuable in complex societies that presuppose its existence, that is, but what could the original impetus towards intelligence in primitive situations possibly have been?...

...A formulation of the social intelligence hypothesis is examined here—that of “Machiavellian intelligence.” This is that intelligence evolved in strategic competition with other individuals. An arms race or “Red Queen effect” is induced, where what matters is intelligence relative to others, rather than intelligence absolutely.3 This hypothesis has intrinsic appeal and interest, so it is important to develop precise formal models to permit an ultimate judgement of its merits.
 
Dutch Uncle said:
As discussed on previous occasions, the Red Queen hypothesis indicates that, among other things, once life begins, it will continue evolving until it becomes sentient in an effort to avoid extinction by becoming prey.

The conceptual basis of the Red Queen hypothesis is that species (or populations) must continually evolve new adaptations in response to evolutionary changes in other organisms to avoid extinction.

www.sciencedirect.com

The evolution of rationality and the Red Queen

Strategic rationality is subjected here to natural selection. In a zero-sum repeated game of incomplete information, one long-run individual is inform…
www.sciencedirect.com www.sciencedirect.com
A central mystery of evolutionary biology concerns the extraordinary intelligence of human beings. High intelligence may be valuable in complex societies that presuppose its existence, that is, but what could the original impetus towards intelligence in primitive situations possibly have been?...

...A formulation of the social intelligence hypothesis is examined here—that of “Machiavellian intelligence.” This is that intelligence evolved in strategic competition with other individuals. An arms race or “Red Queen effect” is induced, where what matters is intelligence relative to others, rather than intelligence absolutely.3 This hypothesis has intrinsic appeal and interest, so it is important to develop precise formal models to permit an ultimate judgement of its merits.
Click to expand...
My problem with that is that life thrived on Earth for 3.5 billion years without the need for advanced intelligence. Many alien planets aren't going to last 3.5 billion years.
And even out of the dozens of large brained hominid species, only one developed the ability for abstract thinking. And our species very nearly went extinct 70k years ago due to some unidentified environmental catastrophe.

So the question is, are homo sapiens just a fluke, or really an inevitable biological development?
 
Cypress said:
My problem with that is that life thrived on Earth for 3.5 billion years without the need for advanced intelligence. Many alien planets aren't going to last 3.5 billion years.
And even out of the dozens of large brained hominid species, only one developed the ability for abstract thinking. And our species very nearly went extinct 70k years ago due to some unidentified environmental catastrophe.

So the question is, are homo sapiens just a fluke, or really an inevitable biological development?
Click to expand...
Is a random manifestation really a fluke if it's physically possible to occur?

I suspect--don't know but suspect--
that other intelligent, or human-like organisms exist,
but are too far apart in the vast universe to either know of one another
or attempt communication.

In my vision of an infinite universe,
I would suspect that organisms virtually identical to ourselves
probably exist somewhere.

I obviously can't know for sure,
and I lack the intellectual curiosity to care that much,
but I believe it to be possible.
 
Cypress said:
My problem with that is that life thrived on Earth for 3.5 billion years without the need for advanced intelligence. Many alien planets aren't going to last 3.5 billion years.
And even out of the dozens of large brained hominid species, only one developed the ability for abstract thinking. And our species very nearly went extinct 70k years ago due to some unidentified environmental catastrophe.

So the question is, are homo sapiens just a fluke, or really an inevitable biological development?
Click to expand...
It might take billions of years to evolve. Also, there's the adverse effect of cataclysmic events such as super-volcanos and impact events which would slow the process. If a planet doesn't last 3.5B years, then obviously it can't develop much in the way of intelligent life.

Let's not forget that Homo Sapiens Sapiens is very good at wiping out the competition, be it the same species or not. Saying "Wow, our species must be the smartest" when we've killed off all the others is, IMO, missing the bigger picture.

I think intelligence is inevitable but not necessarily humans.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top