Artillery guns have a service life of about 2,500 shells in western militaries before they need a factory overhaul. A factory overhaul is far more maintenance than can happen in the field, or even behind the lines. It literally involves heating metal to bendable heat. It can only happen in a factory setting.
And this is where we start getting into educated (and uneducated) guesses.
At 2,500 shells guns become inaccurate to a level that is unacceptable to a western military. That is not the same as blowing up. Western militaries have not studied in depth where artillery guns begin blowing up in modern times. We know there is a point that they start becoming defective, and when they blow, it is a bad thing, but there has not been a definite point found. Western militaries just take care of their weapons, and do not even question when the weapons would stop working if they did not take care of them.
The guess I have heard is the guns start exploding at 10,000 shells or higher. And it is highly doubtful that a gun can make it past 30,000 shells.
Russia artillery started out extremely inaccurate, and have rapidly lost more accuracy, this leads people to think they might already been later in the life at the beginning of the war. They have been firing 50 to 100 shells a day for about half of 180 days, so somewhere between 5,000 to 10,000 shells. That means we should start seeing Russian artillery start blowing up.
Look at any of the footage of Russian artillery crews, and it is instructive of the difference from American crews. An American howitzer might have a crew of 8, all swarming around the gun while it fires. You will rarely see more than one Russian soldier by a firing gun. They are already assuming there is a high chance of a misfire, and trying to minimize casualties. This means a slower rate of fire, but that is a sacrifice the Russian military is willing to make.
Beyond that, about half the footage of Russian howitzers shows the shell ejector not working. After firing, the crew has to try to break the shell out of the gun with a hammer. There is footage of guns suddenly shifting in odd directions, and even some drone footage of guns exploding while being fired without any other obvious cause.
Putin has shown a complete unwillingness to pull back forces to overhaul guns, and his guns outside the theater are stretched thin already. He seems to be ignoring the problem, hoping it will go away.
This Spring, the Ukrainians will have a million well trained, western equipped soldiers ready for an offensive, and Russia might not have any artillery to fire at them.
Or maybe I am wrong
And this is where we start getting into educated (and uneducated) guesses.
At 2,500 shells guns become inaccurate to a level that is unacceptable to a western military. That is not the same as blowing up. Western militaries have not studied in depth where artillery guns begin blowing up in modern times. We know there is a point that they start becoming defective, and when they blow, it is a bad thing, but there has not been a definite point found. Western militaries just take care of their weapons, and do not even question when the weapons would stop working if they did not take care of them.
The guess I have heard is the guns start exploding at 10,000 shells or higher. And it is highly doubtful that a gun can make it past 30,000 shells.
Russia artillery started out extremely inaccurate, and have rapidly lost more accuracy, this leads people to think they might already been later in the life at the beginning of the war. They have been firing 50 to 100 shells a day for about half of 180 days, so somewhere between 5,000 to 10,000 shells. That means we should start seeing Russian artillery start blowing up.
Look at any of the footage of Russian artillery crews, and it is instructive of the difference from American crews. An American howitzer might have a crew of 8, all swarming around the gun while it fires. You will rarely see more than one Russian soldier by a firing gun. They are already assuming there is a high chance of a misfire, and trying to minimize casualties. This means a slower rate of fire, but that is a sacrifice the Russian military is willing to make.
Beyond that, about half the footage of Russian howitzers shows the shell ejector not working. After firing, the crew has to try to break the shell out of the gun with a hammer. There is footage of guns suddenly shifting in odd directions, and even some drone footage of guns exploding while being fired without any other obvious cause.
Putin has shown a complete unwillingness to pull back forces to overhaul guns, and his guns outside the theater are stretched thin already. He seems to be ignoring the problem, hoping it will go away.
This Spring, the Ukrainians will have a million well trained, western equipped soldiers ready for an offensive, and Russia might not have any artillery to fire at them.
Or maybe I am wrong
