War with China


Policy Tensor

@policytensor


Thanks. Let me add that this is much more serious than people are recognizing. The Chinese have declared their intention to defy the blockade. The US now finds itself in a zugzwang. Letting them pass is the safest option, but that directly undermines not just US military prestige in general but the specific claim to global maritime hegemony. Sinking Chinese vessels would be an act of war against the People’s Republic of China. It will almost certainly elicit the blockade of Taiwan, or another equivalently coercive move. Seizing Chinese vessels and parking them at Djibouti or another port would result in a diplomatic crisis that exposes the US even more to Chinese coercion. As I have said ever since he announced this harebrained scheme, he has exposed himself to Chinese coercion.
 
1. China has no intention of intervening in a war between the US and Iran, if the conflict takes the form of a short, intense airstrike.

2. If the US wanted Chinese intervention, the most direct way would be to block oil shipments to China. In this scenario, China would indeed intervene, but what benefit would that bring to the US?

3. A complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would harm US allies like Japan and South Korea.

4. If the blockade were only targeted at China, it would provoke Chinese retaliation, including a rare earth embargo. All the confrontational tactics you saw in the trade war would reappear.

Overall, blocking the strait is not a wise move. It would be very costly.

If the US were determined to fight Iran, it could easily use its superior military power to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open.

The fact that the US is now blocking the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iran's blockade demonstrates a lack of confidence in its ability to resolve the issue militarily.

Perhaps over time, the US will gain more confidence after deploying more troops, but at least for now, they do not.

Some people believe this blockade is aimed at China, but I think this is a misjudgment. This is tantamount to skipping all previous steps in the trade war confrontation and directly entering a state of war. This is not in the interest of the United States.

Therefore, I believe that this US blockade cannot be sustained in the long run, because it will have a negative impact on the US economy.
 
Then too when do the American people decide that they are no longer willing to fight and die for the Empires wars in the service of the bankers.......
 
Dan Collins

@DanCollins2011


China’s oil reserves including the SPR along with commercial stocks (held by state owned oil companies) is 1.5 billion barrels of oil. 360% larger than the U.S SPR. China produces 4.4 m/bd domestically. They import 11 m/bd. Russia will increase exports to China. China can outbid the rest of the global South if needed. China will manage. Meanwhile, the U.S will burn through a trillion dollars, destroy our global reputation, perhaps the USD as the world’s currency all while making Iran a mini-power in the region.
 
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