US Q4 2025 GDP Growth Estimate, a Very Strong 5.3%

Grokmaster

Grokmaster

Well-known member
Contributor
Bu-bu-but THE TARIFFS !!!!????



Trumpenomics beats "espert" GDP predictions again, it seems likely.




For Q4 2025, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model suggested strong growth, with an estimate around 5.3% as of mid-January 2026, driven by resilient consumer spending and investment, though some analysts expected lower growth due to factors like a government shutdown, with overall forecasts varying but pointing to a robust end to the year despite headwinds.

Key Forecasts & Models (as of January 2026):
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Estimated 5.3% real GDP growth, revised up from earlier figures, fueled by personal consumption and investment.
  • Federated Hermes: Noted GDPNow suggesting growth over 4%, highlighting strong investment (AI) and consumption from high earners.
  • S&P Global Ratings
    :
    Forecasted a more modest 1.5% Q4 2025 growth (year-over-year) with below-trend growth expected, citing consumer burdens and housing market issues
    .
    • Haver Analytics: Pointed to potential 5% growth despite weak manufacturing/job reports, highlighting data discrepancies.


www.atlantafed.org

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a
www.atlantafed.org www.atlantafed.org




:clap::hedb::lock:



:grokmaster:
 
Grokmaster said:
Bu-bu-but THE TARIFFS !!!!????



Trumpenomics beats "espert" GDP predictions again, it seems likely.




For Q4 2025, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model suggested strong growth, with an estimate around 5.3% as of mid-January 2026, driven by resilient consumer spending and investment, though some analysts expected lower growth due to factors like a government shutdown, with overall forecasts varying but pointing to a robust end to the year despite headwinds.

Key Forecasts & Models (as of January 2026):
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Estimated 5.3% real GDP growth, revised up from earlier figures, fueled by personal consumption and investment.
  • Federated Hermes: Noted GDPNow suggesting growth over 4%, highlighting strong investment (AI) and consumption from high earners.
  • S&P Global Ratings
    :
    Forecasted a more modest 1.5% Q4 2025 growth (year-over-year) with below-trend growth expected, citing consumer burdens and housing market issues
    .
    • Haver Analytics: Pointed to potential 5% growth despite weak manufacturing/job reports, highlighting data discrepancies.


www.atlantafed.org

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a
www.atlantafed.org www.atlantafed.org




:clap::hedb::lock:



:grokmaster:
Click to expand...
The receptionist would have posted this, but he hates success stories.
 
Grokmaster said:

US Q4 2025 GDP Growth Estimate, a Very Strong 5.3%​

Click to expand...
Do you feel like there is 5.3% growth? Given that many employees get 5% raises based on seniority, is everyone in your life getting 10 to 20 percent raises?

If trump's government predicted 2% growth, I would say maybe I am underestimating the economy. Maybe it is doing better than I think. It is certainly possible the economy is doing better outside my immediate social circles, and that I do not know it.

When trump's government predicts 5.3% growth, or even 20+% growth, I dismiss it as a clumsy lie. It is possible that we will see a major jump in growth later in the year, and end up at 5.3%, but that is unlikely, and not a reasonable prediction. 20+% is just insane, and is not possible.

Grokmaster said:
Forecasted a more modest 1.5% Q4 2025 growth
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That sounds more accurate. The sales figures for department stores were terrible, and the sales figures for online shopping were not great, so it might go negative. Obviously consumer sales are unusually important for fourth quarters.
 
Grokmaster said:
Bu-bu-but THE TARIFFS !!!!????



Trumpenomics beats "espert" GDP predictions again, it seems likely.




For Q4 2025, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model suggested strong growth, with an estimate around 5.3% as of mid-January 2026, driven by resilient consumer spending and investment, though some analysts expected lower growth due to factors like a government shutdown, with overall forecasts varying but pointing to a robust end to the year despite headwinds.

Key Forecasts & Models (as of January 2026):
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Estimated 5.3% real GDP growth, revised up from earlier figures, fueled by personal consumption and investment.
  • Federated Hermes: Noted GDPNow suggesting growth over 4%, highlighting strong investment (AI) and consumption from high earners.
  • S&P Global Ratings
    :
    Forecasted a more modest 1.5% Q4 2025 growth (year-over-year) with below-trend growth expected, citing consumer burdens and housing market issues
    .
    • Haver Analytics: Pointed to potential 5% growth despite weak manufacturing/job reports, highlighting data discrepancies.


www.atlantafed.org

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a
www.atlantafed.org www.atlantafed.org




:clap::hedb::lock:
Click to expand...
Hey, Yagina. You know any "estimate" from the trump administration means the opposite. When are you going to learn you sorry little Nazi beeyach!
 
Walt said:
Do you feel like there is 5.3% growth? Given that many employees get 5% raises based on seniority, is everyone in your life getting 10 to 20 percent raises?

If trump's government predicted 2% growth, I would say maybe I am underestimating the economy. Maybe it is doing better than I think. It is certainly possible the economy is doing better outside my immediate social circles, and that I do not know it.

When trump's government predicts 5.3% growth, or even 20+% growth, I dismiss it as a clumsy lie. It is possible that we will see a major jump in growth later in the year, and end up at 5.3%, but that is unlikely, and not a reasonable prediction. 20+% is just insane, and is not possible.


That sounds more accurate. The sales figures for department stores were terrible, and the sales figures for online shopping were not great, so it might go negative. Obviously consumer sales are unusually important for fourth quarters.
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It's Federal Bank prediction, dipshit.

Need a hankie?? We know good news for the US distresses you.



Wages are actually growing faster than inflation. Here’s why you don’t believe it​

fortune.com

Wages are actually growing faster than inflation. Here’s why you don’t believe it | Fortune

“I’m less convinced about this K-shaped recovery than other people are,” Jason Furman says. But look at the bottom of the scale.
fortune.com fortune.com
 
Walt said:
Do you feel like there is 5.3% growth? Given that many employees get 5% raises based on seniority, is everyone in your life getting 10 to 20 percent raises?

If trump's government predicted 2% growth, I would say maybe I am underestimating the economy. Maybe it is doing better than I think. It is certainly possible the economy is doing better outside my immediate social circles, and that I do not know it.

When trump's government predicts 5.3% growth, or even 20+% growth, I dismiss it as a clumsy lie. It is possible that we will see a major jump in growth later in the year, and end up at 5.3%, but that is unlikely, and not a reasonable prediction. 20+% is just insane, and is not possible.


That sounds more accurate. The sales figures for department stores were terrible, and the sales figures for online shopping were not great, so it might go negative. Obviously consumer sales are unusually important for fourth quarters.
Click to expand...
Wally, STFU. You are the last person on earth to be giving financial advice.
 
Lionfish said:
Wally, STFU. You are the last person on earth to be giving financial advice.
Click to expand...
Saks Global declared bankruptcy a week ago. They had missed a $126 million interest payment. Before that their idea was to stop paying suppliers, but suppliers stopped delivering merchandise, which meant empty shelves for Christmas.

Department store sales were down by 4 to 6% this year. They were already in trouble, but this appears to be the end for many of them.

You may say never mind, sales are just switching over to online sellers like Amazon... Amazon would never be laying off people... Except 2025 was a year of huge layoffs at Amazon, and 2026 looks to be worse.

Maybe the AI boom will save us? It is becoming tough to get the capital to pay for the AI boom, not to mention the added power needs. trump is promising to put current electrical users bills ahead of AI, so no respite there. trump is even allowing China to outbid American firms for the chips needed.

Maybe we won't slip into a recession, but 20+% growth is not possible. Even 5.3% growth seems unlikely to me.
 
In 2020, Bostic was elected to a six-year term on the Harvard Board of Overseers.<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raphael_Bostic#cite_note-9"><span>[</span>9<span>]</span></a> Later that year, he wrote an essay for the FRB Atlanta entitled, "A Moral and Economic Imperative to End Racism."<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raphael_Bostic#cite_note-10"><span>[</span>10<span>]</span></a> In it he wrote that systematic racism drags on the economy.<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raphael_Bostic#cite_note-11"><span>[</span>11<span>]</span></a>

On October 14, 2022, Bostic failed to disclose stock trading transactions in the five years leading the bank that were revealed after a federal investigation. Bostic stated a 3rd party manager had made the transactions, unknowingly to him.<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raphael_Bostic#cite_note-12"><span>[</span>12<span>]</span></a> Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has asked the Office of Inspector General for the Federal Reserve Board to initiate an independent review of President Bostic's financial disclosures.

On September 11, 2024, the Office of the Inspector General reported that Bostic had "violated the FOMC blackout rule when securities transactions were executed on his behalf during multiple blackout periods."<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raphael_Bostic#cite_note-13"><span>[</span>13<span>]</span></a>

In November 2025, Bostic announced his resignation as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, for the end of February 2026.<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raphael_Bostic#cite_note-14"><span>[</span>14<span>]</span></a>
 
Grokmaster said:
Bu-bu-but THE TARIFFS !!!!????



Trumpenomics beats "espert" GDP predictions again, it seems likely.




For Q4 2025, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model suggested strong growth, with an estimate around 5.3% as of mid-January 2026, driven by resilient consumer spending and investment, though some analysts expected lower growth due to factors like a government shutdown, with overall forecasts varying but pointing to a robust end to the year despite headwinds.

Key Forecasts & Models (as of January 2026):
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Estimated 5.3% real GDP growth, revised up from earlier figures, fueled by personal consumption and investment.
  • Federated Hermes: Noted GDPNow suggesting growth over 4%, highlighting strong investment (AI) and consumption from high earners.
  • S&P Global Ratings
    :
    Forecasted a more modest 1.5% Q4 2025 growth (year-over-year) with below-trend growth expected, citing consumer burdens and housing market issues
    .
    • Haver Analytics: Pointed to potential 5% growth despite weak manufacturing/job reports, highlighting data discrepancies.


www.atlantafed.org

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a
www.atlantafed.org www.atlantafed.org




:clap::hedb::lock:



:grokmaster:
Click to expand...

We shall see.
 
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