US inches closer to change in how presidential elections are counted

Hume

Verified User
“I think this is a very straightforward, long-term plan to get us to a point where the United States is frankly what most people think it is, which is a place where every person’s vote counts the same as every other person’s vote,” Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger said after signing legislation to add the state to the National Popular Vote Compact.

“Unfortunately, that is not the case when it comes to presidential elections, where by virtue of having the Electoral College, depending on the state you live in, your vote does count differently.”

 
“I think this is a very straightforward, long-term plan to get us to a point where the United States is frankly what most people think it is, which is a place where every person’s vote counts the same as every other person’s vote,” Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger said after signing legislation to add the state to the National Popular Vote Compact.

“Unfortunately, that is not the case when it comes to presidential elections, where by virtue of having the Electoral College, depending on the state you live in, your vote does count differently.”

This would take a change to the Constitution, a new Amendment.
and that takes 2/3 of the states to pass it.
As it is now it is in the Constitution that it is up to the states legislatures to decide how they want their appointees to the EC to be selected.
State legislatures can decide to just appoint them themselves and not even hold elections.
But if they did that I am sure most of them would be looking for a new job.
Yes this would take an amendment to the Constitution , taking 2/3 of all states in the US to pass it into law.
and that not only would take years but IMO is not going to happen.
 
This would take a change to the Constitution, a new Amendment.
and that takes 2/3 of the states to pass it.
As it is now it is in the Constitution that it is up to the states legislatures to decide how they want their appointees to the EC to be selected.
State legislatures can decide to just appoint them themselves and not even hold elections.
But if they did that I am sure most of them would be looking for a new job.
Yes this would take an amendment to the Constitution , taking 2/3 of all states in the US to pass it into law.
and that not only would take years but IMO is not going to happen.
The US Constitution does not even mention having a popular election for President.
 
No it would not. Each state can make its own rules.
So, what happens in this scenario?

A state signs onto this compact to give their electoral college votes to the candidate that gets the majority of votes nationally.

That candidate is from the, or a, party that doesn't reflect the current government of that state and the state itself voted in the majority for the other candidate.

Since Spanberger was brought up, let's use Virginia for example. The state government, say a Democrat one, is in power and passes this national vote compact law. It is replaced by a slim Republican majority. There is a presidential election. Virginia votes by a slim majority for the Republican candidate, but the national vote overall is slightly in favor of the Democrat.

Do you really think that a Republican majority state government, even by a slim margin, having just held a presidential election in which the residents of that state voted in the majority for the Republican candidate for President are going to give the state's electoral college votes to the Democrat candidate for president who got more votes total nationally? I can't see that happening. I can't see the reverse situation happening even more.

Almost all states currently do "winner take all" based on the majority vote in that state.

Personally, I'd like to see the electoral votes apportioned on the basis of the state vote as a percentage of the whole, or by congressional district.

Basically, the National Popular Vote compact is a really, really, bad idea.
 
So, what happens in this scenario?

A state signs onto this compact to give their electoral college votes to the candidate that gets the majority of votes nationally.

That candidate is from the, or a, party that doesn't reflect the current government of that state and the state itself voted in the majority for the other candidate.

Since Spanberger was brought up, let's use Virginia for example. The state government, say a Democrat one, is in power and passes this national vote compact law. It is replaced by a slim Republican majority. There is a presidential election. Virginia votes by a slim majority for the Republican candidate, but the national vote overall is slightly in favor of the Democrat.

Do you really think that a Republican majority state government, even by a slim margin, having just held a presidential election in which the residents of that state voted in the majority for the Republican candidate for President are going to give the state's electoral college votes to the Democrat candidate for president? I can't see that happening. I can't see the reverse situation happening even more.

Almost all states currently do "winner take all" based on the majority vote in that state.

Personally, I'd like to see the electoral votes apportioned on the basis of the state vote as a percentage of the whole, or by congressional district.

Basically, the National Popular Vote compact is a really, really, bad idea.
Electoral College was designed to prevent popular election of the President. We have arrived as a nation to prefer democracy to aristocracy.
 
Electoral College was designed to prevent popular election of the President. We have arrived as a nation to prefer democracy to aristocracy.
No, the electoral college was designed to give the smaller states a bit more say in electing a President. The 17th amendment destroyed the Senate which was to represent the states, not the people. The House was for that.

Turning everything into a popular vote ends in anarchy, not better government.
 
Personally, I'd like to see the electoral votes apportioned on the basis of the state vote as a percentage of the whole, or by congressional district.

I was surprised when the GOP didn't take Democrats up on their plan for proportional voting; they would have gotten a bigger chunk of the California and New York Congressional delegations if they had.
 
The US Constitution does not even mention having a popular election for President.
NO it does NOT.
IT does say it is up to the legislatures of the states to decide HOW they want to appoint their delegates to the EC .
States do NOT even need to hold elections , their state legislature can just appoint whom ever they want and tell them how to vote, but I am sure if they ever did this they wouldn't have a job for long.
Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.
 
No it would not. Each state can make its own rules.
And I was answering the first post where it has been suggested that we go to the pop. vote.
Seeing it is in the Constitution that
" Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector."
I would take a Constitutional Amendment to do that and for a Constitutional Amendment to become part of the Constitution it take 2/3 of the states to approve it.
 
What is a state other than its people?!
The state is also a government in being. While it is elected by the people, Senators before the 17th amendment were appointed by the state's government in one way or another. That is, the senators from a state were beholden to that state's government first and foremost. That meant that the Senate answered to state governments and weren't elected at all. The states were represented at the federal level.

The 17th Amendment turned the Senate into a second House, and that's why nothing ever gets done there. It fucked everything up with relation to the Senate.
 
That has never been demonstrated.
If you look at the actual history of this, the electoral college was a compromise between Congress appointing a President, and direct popular election of one. The biggest problem with the electoral college method right now, is "winner take all." If electors were proportioned by congressional district or popular vote percentages by state much of the issues with a "popular vote" would be eliminated.

The problem with such a system is--and the Democrats recognize it--is the Democrats would almost always lose presidential elections. They want the alternate to this by being able to spread their often-higher national vote total out to cover the otherwise state by state losses they'd suffer. The problem with that system is it makes all but a handful of high-population states irrelevant to selection of a president.


Of these various systems, the congressional appointment one is a non-starter, while using a popular national vote is an absurd foray into tyranny of the masses.
 
NO it does NOT.
IT does say it is up to the legislatures of the states to decide HOW they want to appoint their delegates to the EC .
States do NOT even need to hold elections , their state legislature can just appoint whom ever they want and tell them how to vote, but I am sure if they ever did this they wouldn't have a job for long.
Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.
Hume just can't grasp any system other than a direct popular vote here.
 
No, the electoral college was designed to give the smaller states a bit more say in electing a President. The 17th amendment destroyed the Senate which was to represent the states, not the people. The House was for that.

Turning everything into a popular vote ends in anarchy, not better government.
and I am all for that

But the peoples house was designed to work differently - freezing the total house members in 1913 (or whenever) also gifted rural areas more pull than was intended by our foundation

what that did - is turn the peoples house into a very exclusive club - where fights over districting lines get more and more critical
 
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If you look at the actual history of this, the electoral college was a compromise between Congress appointing a President, and direct popular election of one. The biggest problem with the electoral college method right now, is "winner take all." If electors were proportioned by congressional district or popular vote percentages by state much of the issues with a "popular vote" would be eliminated.

The problem with such a system is--and the Democrats recognize it--is the Democrats would almost always lose presidential elections. They want the alternate to this by being able to spread their often-higher national vote total out to cover the otherwise state by state losses they'd suffer. The problem with that system is it makes all but a handful of high-population states irrelevant to selection of a president.


Of these various systems, the congressional appointment one is a non-starter, while using a popular national vote is an absurd foray into tyranny of the masses.
Basically, the Electoral College is the genius compromise the Founders built to keep the Executive branch independent of the Legislature while still giving the people a real voice. They explicitly rejected two bad ideas at the Constitutional Convention:

First idea: Letting Congress pick the President (that would make the Executive a puppet of the Legislature).

and B. A straight national popular vote (they feared "tyranny of the masses" and regional factions, Madison wrote about this in Federalist 10, and Hamilton explained the EC solution in Federalist 68)....

Instead, they created a system where each state chooses electors equal to its total congressional delegation (House reps + 2 Senators). That’s exactly why it’s 538 today (435 House + 100 Senate + 3 for DC via the 23rd Amendment). The electors meet in their own states and vote. It’s not Congress picking the President, and it’s not a raw national head-count. Hamilton called it “excellent” because it blends the sense of the people with safeguards against cabals, intrigue, and mob rule.

There is no such thing as “the national popular vote.” It’s just an after-the-fact aggregate of 51 separate state (and DC) elections. Campaigns are run, ads are bought, and turnout is driven by the Electoral College rules we actually have. Pretending otherwise is like complaining that a football game’s final score would be different if they’d played basketball rules.

TA Gardner is right that winner-take-all (used in 48 states) is the biggest practical friction point today. Maine and Nebraska already prove a district-based system can work without blowing up the whole republic. But switching to a true national popular vote wouldn’t “fix” anything—it would destroy the federal balance the Founders deliberately created.

Here’s why a national popular vote is insane in practice:
CA + NYC (and a handful of other mega-population centers) really would decide everything. The top 10 states already hold roughly 51% of the U.S. population. Under a national popular vote, candidates would campaign almost exclusively in the biggest media markets and urban corridors. Flyover country, rural states, the Mountain West, the Plains, the South outside a few big cities, all irrelevant. Why spend time or money in Wyoming, Montana, or West Virginia when you can rack up millions in LA, New York, Chicago, and Houston? The Founders designed the EC precisely to prevent coastal or urban elites from steamrolling the rest of the country. Candidates would never leave these states, they would simply not care about the vote from any other group of states.

It would make most states spectators. Right now, even “safe” states still matter because their electoral votes are in play in the broader strategy. Under popular vote, 40+ states become electoral wastelands. Turnout in those places would crater.

Democrats know this math. Their strongest margins come from huge, deep-blue population centers (look at 2016: Clinton won California alone by over 4.27 million votes, more than her entire national popular-vote margin). Spreading those urban piles nationwide lets them paper over losses in the other 40 states. TA Gardner nailed it: proportional or district allocation would expose that geographic weakness, so they push the popular-vote alternative instead.

The Electoral College forces candidates to build broad geographic coalitions across diverse regions, economies, and cultures. That’s not a bug, it’s the feature that has kept the republic stable for 235+ years with peaceful power transfers almost every time. The handful of times the EC and national totals diverged (5 times total) didn’t break the country; they reflected the system working as designed.

Bottom line: the Founders weren’t idiots. They gave us a republic, not a pure democracy, for very good reasons. Scrapping the Electoral College for a raw popular vote would turn the United States into a country run by whichever side can max out turnout in the biggest cities. That’s not fairness, that’s just trading one set of swing states for permanent coastal dominance. The system we have is still the fairest way to elect a President in a continental republic of 50 sovereign states.
 
we aren't much of a representative republic anymore.

When you squeeze a whole state into just 11 districts, every line becomes a weapon. But if Virginia had 138 districts (per the blue line), it would be much harder to gerrymander the state the way we are used to seeing now. There would be too many districts, too many local communities, and too much political variation to rig the whole map with a few clever tentacles.

And yes, part of the historical argument for freezing the House was that a much larger chamber would become harder to manage and harder to conduct business in.

My response is simple:

Prove it.

Prove that a larger House would be more dangerous than what we have now: a tiny, increasingly exclusive political club where representation keeps shrinking, campaigns get more expensive, and every district map turns into a blood sport.
 

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