US economy shrank 0.5% between January and March, worse than 2 earlier estimates had revealed

[Guno צְבִי]

The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5% annual pace from January through March as President Donald Trump’s trade wars disrupted business, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in an unexpected deterioration of earlier estimates.


WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5% annual pace from January through March as President Donald Trump’s trade wars disrupted business, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in an unexpected deterioration of earlier estimates.
First-quarter growth was weighed down by a surge of imports as U.S. companies, and households, rushed to buy foreign goods before Trump could impose tariffs on them. The Commerce Department previously estimated that the economy fell 0.2% in the first quarter. Economists had forecast no change in the department's third and final estimate.

US economy shrank 0.5% between January and March, worse than 2 earlier estimates had revealed

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5% annual pace from January through March as President Donald Trump’s trade wars disrupted business, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in an unexpected deterioration of earlier estimates.

www.wral.com

 

[Trumpet]

Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs will throw the U.S. economy into chaos by 2026. Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist, Seth Carpenter, says these tariffs are a surefire way to drive up inflation and tank growth.

MSN

 

[Dutch Uncle]

The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5% annual pace from January through March as President Donald Trump’s trade wars disrupted business, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in an unexpected deterioration of earlier estimates.


WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5% annual pace from January through March as President Donald Trump’s trade wars disrupted business, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in an unexpected deterioration of earlier estimates.
First-quarter growth was weighed down by a surge of imports as U.S. companies, and households, rushed to buy foreign goods before Trump could impose tariffs on them. The Commerce Department previously estimated that the economy fell 0.2% in the first quarter. Economists had forecast no change in the department's third and final estimate.

US economy shrank 0.5% between January and March, worse than 2 earlier estimates had revealed

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5% annual pace from January through March as President Donald Trump’s trade wars disrupted business, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in an unexpected deterioration of earlier estimates.

www.wral.com

No wonder TACO is backing off the "dumbest trade war ever" and focused on mass deportations. Since that blew up in his face too, he's now focusing upon Israel and Iran. His sheeple will follow him wherever he goes.

 

[Lionfish]

The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5% annual pace from January through March as President Donald Trump’s trade wars disrupted business, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in an unexpected deterioration of earlier estimates.


WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5% annual pace from January through March as President Donald Trump’s trade wars disrupted business, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in an unexpected deterioration of earlier estimates.
First-quarter growth was weighed down by a surge of imports as U.S. companies, and households, rushed to buy foreign goods before Trump could impose tariffs on them. The Commerce Department previously estimated that the economy fell 0.2% in the first quarter. Economists had forecast no change in the department's third and final estimate.

US economy shrank 0.5% between January and March, worse than 2 earlier estimates had revealed

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5% annual pace from January through March as President Donald Trump’s trade wars disrupted business, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in an unexpected deterioration of earlier estimates.

www.wral.com

Guano, with that horrible news, the stock market must be tankong. OOP's as of 11:07 it is UP 307pts.
Go lay by your dish.

 

[Dutch Uncle]

Guano, with that horrible news, the stock market must be tankong. OOP's as of 11:07 it is UP 307pts.
Go lay by your dish.

You're looking through the wrong end of the telescope, Legina.

https://www.morningstar.com/markets/june-2025-us-stock-market-outlook-has-storm-passed

June 2025 US Stock Market Outlook and Valuation​

As of May 30, 2025, according to a composite of our valuations, the US stock market was trading at a 3% discount to fair value. Historically, that was close to the midpoint, where half the time the market trades at a higher valuation and half the time at a lower valuation. While we remain market weight at this valuation, we’d prefer to see more of a margin of safety in light of the higher-than-average downside risk potential.

For example, the price/fair value fell as low as a 17% discount to fair value on April 4, 2025. At that level, we recommended that investors move to an overweight position as we thought that the discount was more than enough margin of safety for long-term investors. Following this especially rapid rebound, we moved back to a market weight as valuations closed in on fair value to lock in those quick, short-term gains.

Is This Just the Eye of the Hurricane?​

Last month, we noted that heading into May, we were entering a period of relative calm. Over the past month, the US stock market has become especially sanguine about the heightened risks it will have to face this year. Yet, this calm appears to be more like the eye of the hurricane as opposed to the passing of a single storm.

Tariffs and Trade Negotiations​

The on-again/off-again drama regarding trade tariffs and trade negotiations will remain an outstanding risk until negotiations are concluded. Trade negotiations have reportedly begun, yet finalized agreements don’t appear to be anywhere near fruition. Furthermore, legal wranglings within the US have questioned the validity of the tariffs and will be caught up in appeals courts over the short term.

At this point, it’s nearly impossible to determine when trade negotiations will be completed and what the terms of those negotiations will be. While the worst of the tariffs have been paused, we suspect it won’t be until those deadlines approach that new agreements may be finalized. Until then, as news emerges regarding the progress and substance of trade negotiations, these headlines could have an outsize positive or negative impact on markets. For example, other countries could make selective leaks to the media to try to destabilize US markets in order to try to obtain negotiating leverage.

 

[Walt]

Past employment and growth keeps getting revised down. So trump points at the current employment and growth numbers, and says they are strong... When they are really lackluster. But if you include the downward revisions, then they start looking somewhat bad. It is not in free fall yet, which I suppose is something.

Guano, with that horrible news, the stock market must be tankong. OOP's as of 11:07 it is UP 307pts.

The stock market hit a new high since its last 20% drop from a high, so today it moved from a bear market(bad) to a bull market(good). I just do not believe it can continue to be out of sync with the economy...

That being said, I do believe it can continue to be out of sync with the economy for long enough to make my investment worthless, which I suppose is something.

 

[gfm7175]

The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5% annual pace from January through March as President Donald Trump’s trade wars disrupted business, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in an unexpected deterioration of earlier estimates.

Why do you lefties NEVER learn that you're being manipulated by the media time and time again?

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5% annual pace from January through March as President Donald Trump’s trade wars disrupted business, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in an unexpected deterioration of earlier estimates.
First-quarter growth was weighed down by a surge of imports as U.S. companies, and households, rushed to buy foreign goods before Trump could impose tariffs on them. The Commerce Department previously estimated that the economy fell 0.2% in the first quarter. Economists had forecast no change in the department's third and final estimate.

US economy shrank 0.5% between January and March, worse than 2 earlier estimates had revealed

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5% annual pace from January through March as President Donald Trump’s trade wars disrupted business, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in an unexpected deterioration of earlier estimates.

www.wral.com

I bolded and underlined the important words within that article.

First off, the topline GDP figure is NOT the economy. Read that part again, if necessary.

Secondly, look at the bolded and underlined words above. In the GDP equation, imports SUBTRACT from the topline GDP figure. This means that, since imports were uncharacteristically high in Q1, the Q1 topline GDP figure was artificially low. Q2's topline GDP figure is going to be VERY high because Q2 imports are going to be very low compared to past quarters, which will ADD to the topline GDP figure. See this prediction thread of mine for more details.

On July 30th (roughly one month from now), Trump's so-called "trade war" policies will be vindicated and lefties will be MUCH more silent about the Q2 GDP report than they were about this Q1 GDP report. On that day, I will post the Q2 GDP figures in my political prediction thread and I will make sure to gloat about how the Q2 figure was MUCH higher than what I conservatively predicted it to be.

Righties will be celebrating the "golden age" while lefties will be grasping at straws trying to come up with a lame way to discredit the very high/good topline GDP figure for Q2 that they can't see coming even though it is a matter of simple mathematics and logic. Oh wait, that's PRECISELY why they can't see it coming!

 

[gfm7175]

Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs will throw the U.S. economy into chaos by 2026. Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist, Seth Carpenter, says these tariffs are a surefire way to drive up inflation and tank growth.

MSN

It was a lie during Trump's first term and it's still a lie now.

 

[gfm7175]

No wonder TACO is backing off the "dumbest trade war ever"

Nothing was "backed off". Tariffs are still in place and have brought in $80+ billion so far. Trade deals are being negotiated in the background and will be announced sometime in July.

and focused on mass deportations.

Yup. All sorts of illegal alien invaders getting deported. That's EXACTLY WHAT I VOTED FOR!!!!!!!!

Since that blew up in his face too,

It didn't. Deportations are happening DAILY.

he's now focusing upon Israel and Iran.

... and he's already successfully brokered peace between them. He authorized the bombing of nuclear facilities in Iran not only for US national security interests but more importantly for removing the "Iran has nukes" card from Bibi's table, which will lead to peace in the Middle East (temporarily). Now, his attention can be directed towards the OBBBA, which will get passed by July 4th, and then he can focus on the Russia/Ukraine stuff and bring about peace in that USA proxy war against Russia.

His sheeple will follow him wherever he goes.

I'm just happy that he's doing a really great job as President.

 

[Dutch Uncle]

I sleep with my socks.

 

[Lionfish]

Past employment and growth keeps getting revised down. So trump points at the current employment and growth numbers, and says they are strong... When they are really lackluster. But if you include the downward revisions, then they start looking somewhat bad. It is not in free fall yet, which I suppose is something.


The stock market hit a new high since its last 20% drop from a high, so today it moved from a bear market(bad) to a bull market(good). I just do not believe it can continue to be out of sync with the economy...

That being said, I do believe it can continue to be out of sync with the economy for long enough to make my investment worthless, which I suppose is something.

Wally, nobody gives a shit about your investments.

 

[Tbird19482]

Economists are saying if Trump's Tariffs are put into effect the GDP of the US could fall as much as 3 to 5 percent.
And they expect the US if not the world will be in a deep recession by late fall.
As of right now Trump has got Manufacturers and retailers all in a frenzy not knowing what to do.
And them market is also unstable.
It is a real mess and Trump's BS isn't helping.

 

[Walt]

Wally, nobody gives a shit about your investments.

I know that is not true, because I give a shit about my investments

 

[Hawkeye10]

Economists are saying if Trump's Tariffs are put into effect the GDP of the US could fall as much as 3 to 5 percent.
And they expect the US if not the world will be in a deep recession by late fall.
As of right now Trump has got Manufacturers and retailers all in a frenzy not knowing what to do.
And them market is also unstable.
It is a real mess and Trump's BS isn't helping.

Instability is economically damaging, a basic truth it seems Trump never learned......his desire to run America like a mafia don runs smack into his claim of wanting to make America Great Again.

 

[Into the Night]

The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5% annual pace from January through March as President Donald Trump’s trade wars disrupted business, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in an unexpected deterioration of earlier estimates.


WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5% annual pace from January through March as President Donald Trump’s trade wars disrupted business, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in an unexpected deterioration of earlier estimates.
First-quarter growth was weighed down by a surge of imports as U.S. companies, and households, rushed to buy foreign goods before Trump could impose tariffs on them. The Commerce Department previously estimated that the economy fell 0.2% in the first quarter. Economists had forecast no change in the department's third and final estimate.

US economy shrank 0.5% between January and March, worse than 2 earlier estimates had revealed

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.5% annual pace from January through March as President Donald Trump’s trade wars disrupted business, the Commerce Department reported Thursday in an unexpected deterioration of earlier estimates.

www.wral.com

Argument from randU fallacy. Making up numbers and using them as 'data' won't cut it, Gunky.

 

[Into the Night]

Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs will throw the U.S. economy into chaos by 2026. Morgan Stanley’s chief global economist, Seth Carpenter, says these tariffs are a surefire way to drive up inflation and tank growth.

MSN

It must really suck to be so paranoid, Blat.

 

[Into the Night]

No wonder TACO is backing off the "dumbest trade war ever" and focused on mass deportations. Since that blew up in his face too, he's now focusing upon Israel and Iran. His sheeple will follow him wherever he goes.

A taco is not sentient, Sybil.

How's life in the kiddie pool?

 

[Into the Night]

You're looking through the wrong end of the telescope, Legina.

https://www.morningstar.com/markets/june-2025-us-stock-market-outlook-has-storm-passed

June 2025 US Stock Market Outlook and Valuation​

As of May 30, 2025, according to a composite of our valuations, the US stock market was trading at a 3% discount to fair value. Historically, that was close to the midpoint, where half the time the market trades at a higher valuation and half the time at a lower valuation. While we remain market weight at this valuation, we’d prefer to see more of a margin of safety in light of the higher-than-average downside risk potential.

For example, the price/fair value fell as low as a 17% discount to fair value on April 4, 2025. At that level, we recommended that investors move to an overweight position as we thought that the discount was more than enough margin of safety for long-term investors. Following this especially rapid rebound, we moved back to a market weight as valuations closed in on fair value to lock in those quick, short-term gains.

Is This Just the Eye of the Hurricane?​

Last month, we noted that heading into May, we were entering a period of relative calm. Over the past month, the US stock market has become especially sanguine about the heightened risks it will have to face this year. Yet, this calm appears to be more like the eye of the hurricane as opposed to the passing of a single storm.

Tariffs and Trade Negotiations​

The on-again/off-again drama regarding trade tariffs and trade negotiations will remain an outstanding risk until negotiations are concluded. Trade negotiations have reportedly begun, yet finalized agreements don’t appear to be anywhere near fruition. Furthermore, legal wranglings within the US have questioned the validity of the tariffs and will be caught up in appeals courts over the short term.

At this point, it’s nearly impossible to determine when trade negotiations will be completed and what the terms of those negotiations will be. While the worst of the tariffs have been paused, we suspect it won’t be until those deadlines approach that new agreements may be finalized. Until then, as news emerges regarding the progress and substance of trade negotiations, these headlines could have an outsize positive or negative impact on markets. For example, other countries could make selective leaks to the media to try to destabilize US markets in order to try to obtain negotiating leverage.

Attempted proof by contrivance. Argument from randU fallacy.

Your TDS makes you an unreliable poster.

 

[Into the Night]

Past employment and growth keeps getting revised down. So trump points at the current employment and growth numbers, and says they are strong... When they are really lackluster. But if you include the downward revisions, then they start looking somewhat bad. It is not in free fall yet, which I suppose is something.


The stock market hit a new high since its last 20% drop from a high, so today it moved from a bear market(bad) to a bull market(good). I just do not believe it can continue to be out of sync with the economy...

That being said, I do believe it can continue to be out of sync with the economy for long enough to make my investment worthless, which I suppose is something.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! You make up number faster than a Nostradamus numerology story!

 

[Into the Night]

Why do you lefties NEVER learn that you're being manipulated by the media time and time again?

They WANT to be.

I bolded and underlined the important words within that article.

First off, the topline GDP figure is NOT the economy. Read that part again, if necessary.

Quite right. The economy has nothing to do with the government at all. It's just people conducting business.
Here where I am, I see a marked increase in economic activity, particularly in the construction industy.