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First, a little background. I never used to go to the Daily Kos because I really didn't know what it was or care. But SF used to always claim that the libtards were all over at Kos getting their talking points, and that stopped a dyed-in-the-wool libtard like me right in my tracks. I had been doing it with no talking points up till then. Well, I ran right over and found out all kinds of interesting shit. Thanks SF!

I am kind of worried because if things change from the conventional wisdom R's spent two whole years building, what will the cons do? Will there be a run on black nikes? Speaking of black, it appears that our new black Jesus, King Obama, can drive up his approval ratings by going around the country and talking. Remember when President Bush used to be able to drive his approval ratings straight down doing that?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/10/6/907987/-Whats-causing-the-GOPs-slide

As DemFromCT noted yesterday, the latest WaPo/ABC poll reflects what polls throughout the country are showing: as election day approaches, Democrats are gaining ground and Republicans are losing it. The question is: why?

Two interesting numbers from the poll might tell us some of the story.

First, the GOP's Pledge to America was a complete dud. 66 percent said they had never heard of it, and of those who had, more people said it would make them less likely to vote for the GOP (29 percent) than said it would make them more likely (23%). Compare that to the Contract With America which had similar awareness numbers but was a small net positive for Republicans (24 percent more likely, 21 percent less likely).

Second, and probably more importantly, President Obama's numbers have improved since he started campaigning after Labor Day. That they've improved isn't exactly a surprise, but the extent of the improvement is a bit surprising. One month ago, his net approval rating was minus 6 -- 46 approve, 52 disapprove. Now it's plus 3 -- 50 approve, 47 disapprove. That's a nine-point swing in just one month. Obviously, there's no single reason why the race is getting closer, but when one out of ten voters improve their rating of President Obama, that's a really big shift, and it's no doubt part of the explanation.
 
LMAO.... the fact they think it has to do with Obama campaigning is quite amusing.

I am sure it has nothing to do with the stock market rebounding sharply in September.

It IS the economy stupid and the lay person looks at the Dow and S&P as a loose gauge of the economy. They see their investments go up a bit and they think... maybe things are starting to improve.

Also... races almost always get closer as the election nears. Even with the recent polls, the Reps are STILL set to retake the House (buh bye Speaker Pelosi)... and they are still set to pick up 7-8 Senate seats and about 6-8 governorships.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_elections_senate_map.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/2010_elections_governor_map.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html
 
LMAO.... the fact they think it has to do with Obama campaigning is quite amusing.

I am sure it has nothing to do with the stock market rebounding sharply in September.

It IS the economy stupid and the lay person looks at the Dow and S&P as a loose gauge of the economy. They see their investments go up a bit and they think... maybe things are starting to improve.

Also... races almost always get closer as the election nears. Even with the recent polls, the Reps are STILL set to retake the House (buh bye Speaker Pelosi)... and they are still set to pick up 7-8 Senate seats and about 6-8 governorships.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_elections_senate_map.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/2010_elections_governor_map.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html

Hi SF! What a surprise running into you here. I didn't expect you to post on this thread.

Oh well, they are only libtards. YOu are most likely correct and the economy is improving and that's why his approval ratings are rising and less than four weeks from the electon the Dems are on an upward trajectory and the Repubs are on a downward one.
 
Hi SF! What a surprise running into you here. I didn't expect you to post on this thread.

Oh well, they are only libtards. YOu are most likely correct and the economy is improving and that's why his approval ratings are rising and less than four weeks from the electon the Dems are on an upward trajectory and the Repubs are on a downward one.

Do look at the polls dear libtard... the margins may be shrinking back to single digits, but the Reps are STILL going to retake the House and they are still going to pick up a big chunk of seats in the Senate. The only thing gone at this point is the pipe dream of retaking the Senate in 2010. It will have to wait until 2012.

Side note... the economy is not improving, it is getting worse. Hence the Fed stating that it is going to try and inflate the economy by policy again. Likewise we are seeing similar action elsewhere (like Japan's announcement yesterday). But the perception is there for now... the public for the most part doesn't pay attention to the fact that the stock market is going up on very low volume. It just cares that it is going up.

The media and politicians in both parties are trying their best to prop this market up prior to the elections. I think they have enough juice in their tanks to keep it propped another four weeks.
 
LMAO.... the fact they think it has to do with Obama campaigning is quite amusing.

I am sure it has nothing to do with the stock market rebounding sharply in September.

It IS the economy stupid and the lay person looks at the Dow and S&P as a loose gauge of the economy. They see their investments go up a bit and they think... maybe things are starting to improve.

Also... races almost always get closer as the election nears. Even with the recent polls, the Reps are STILL set to retake the House (buh bye Speaker Pelosi)... and they are still set to pick up 7-8 Senate seats and about 6-8 governorships.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_elections_senate_map.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/governor/2010_elections_governor_map.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html



Normal people don't really care all that much about the stock market, particularly when unemployment is at 9+%.
 
Do look at the polls dear libtard... the margins may be shrinking back to single digits, but the Reps are STILL going to retake the House and they are still going to pick up a big chunk of seats in the Senate. The only thing gone at this point is the pipe dream of retaking the Senate in 2010. It will have to wait until 2012.

Side note... the economy is not improving, it is getting worse. Hence the Fed stating that it is going to try and inflate the economy by policy again. Likewise we are seeing similar action elsewhere (like Japan's announcement yesterday). But the perception is there for now... the public for the most part doesn't pay attention to the fact that the stock market is going up on very low volume. It just cares that it is going up.

The media and politicians in both parties are trying their best to prop this market up prior to the elections. I think they have enough juice in their tanks to keep it propped another four weeks.

Well, I'm sure you know best. It is probably the media conspiring to trick the people into believing the economy is getting better. The media is always looking for good news to report. I have noticed that over the years.
 
What kind of moron becomes turned off by the contents of the Contract with America/Pledge to America? I can understand them simply not believing that the GOP will deliver and go through with it, but to just look at it and say, "that's bad for America" is stupidity of the lowest order.
 
What kind of moron becomes turned off by the contents of the Contract with America/Pledge to America? I can understand them simply not believing that the GOP will deliver and go through with it, but to just look at it and say, "that's bad for America" is stupidity of the lowest order.


Did you actually read the thing? It was the same warmed over horseshit we've been hearing ad nauseum. I was a joke. To look at it and think "hey, that's not half bad" is drown on your own spit stupid.
 
LMAO.... the fact they think it has to do with Obama campaigning is quite amusing.

I always feel a little bad for the people who don't see the glow, and understand the oneness we all feel when He steps out into the light.

It's beautiful, and I hope you are one of us someday.
 
Normal people don't really care all that much about the stock market, particularly when unemployment is at 9+%.

LMAO... again.... watch the correlation of the stock market to consumer confidence. They most certainly watch to see what the market is doing. It effects their 401k's, 403b's, 457's, IRA's etc... They also use it as a gauge of the economy... hence the correlation mentioned above.

They see the market rising, they get more optimistic. they see it falling, they get more pessimistic.
 
Well, I'm sure you know best. It is probably the media conspiring to trick the people into believing the economy is getting better. The media is always looking for good news to report. I have noticed that over the years.


LOL... I won't say I know 'best', but I do watch what is popping up on CNBC throughout the day, every weekday. They are trying to prop this market up. They are trying to build confidence. They know that consumer confidence is critical to consumer spending, which drives two thirds of our economy. The volume on the market is very low. Over 60% of the trading is being done by the high-freq computer traders. They are propping this thing up. When they pull the rug out.... pop goes confidence.
 
I always feel a little bad for the people who don't see the glow, and understand the oneness we all feel when He steps out into the light.

It's beautiful, and I hope you are one of us someday.

That 'glow' is simply the politicians pissing on you. The warm and wet sensation you get... should have clued you in.
 
LMAO... again.... watch the correlation of the stock market to consumer confidence. They most certainly watch to see what the market is doing. It effects their 401k's, 403b's, 457's, IRA's etc... They also use it as a gauge of the economy... hence the correlation mentioned above.

They see the market rising, they get more optimistic. they see it falling, they get more pessimistic.


Clearly we have a difference of opinion on this. I bet that if you asked the average person where the DOW closed yesterday he or she would have no clue and if you asked whether it closed higher or lower than in January or April they would likewise have no clue.

On the other hand, if you ask the average person what the unemployment rate is I'm sure as shit they'd be damn close to nailing it.

As for your correlation, I think you've got a pretty shitty case for causation. I mean, it stands to reason that both consumer confidence and the DOW move in response to the same information, not that one tracks the other.
 
LOL... I won't say I know 'best', but I do watch what is popping up on CNBC throughout the day, every weekday. They are trying to prop this market up. They are trying to build confidence. They know that consumer confidence is critical to consumer spending, which drives two thirds of our economy. The volume on the market is very low. Over 60% of the trading is being done by the high-freq computer traders. They are propping this thing up. When they pull the rug out.... pop goes confidence.


Who are "they?"

And given that you actually watch CNBC, I think your understanding of what normal people react and respond to relating to the economy isn't anywhere close to correct.
 
I always feel a little bad for the people who don't see the glow, and understand the oneness we all feel when He steps out into the light.

It's beautiful, and I hope you are one of us someday.

Sometimes I worry that SF will never know this kind of love. I think it's part of what makes him so grumply so often. :(
 
LOL... I won't say I know 'best', but I do watch what is popping up on CNBC throughout the day, every weekday. They are trying to prop this market up. They are trying to build confidence. They know that consumer confidence is critical to consumer spending, which drives two thirds of our economy. The volume on the market is very low. Over 60% of the trading is being done by the high-freq computer traders. They are propping this thing up. When they pull the rug out.... pop goes confidence.

CNBC?

Really?

Even with their pitiful track record?

Now I understand why everything you say sounds so crazy...you been listening to Kramer!
 
Clearly we have a difference of opinion on this. I bet that if you asked the average person where the DOW closed yesterday he or she would have no clue and if you asked whether it closed higher or lower than in January or April they would likewise have no clue.

On the other hand, if you ask the average person what the unemployment rate is I'm sure as shit they'd be damn close to nailing it.

As for your correlation, I think you've got a pretty shitty case for causation. I mean, it stands to reason that both consumer confidence and the DOW move in response to the same information, not that one tracks the other.

Bunch of fucking proles.
 
Clearly we have a difference of opinion on this. I bet that if you asked the average person where the DOW closed yesterday he or she would have no clue and if you asked whether it closed higher or lower than in January or April they would likewise have no clue.

On the other hand, if you ask the average person what the unemployment rate is I'm sure as shit they'd be damn close to nailing it.

As for your correlation, I think you've got a pretty shitty case for causation. I mean, it stands to reason that both consumer confidence and the DOW move in response to the same information, not that one tracks the other.

Wrong. The market moves ahead of consumer confidence. The market responds to the data. With the exception of the unemployment numbers, the average person doesn't know what to make of the economic data. Consumer confidence lags the market, but moves in correlation.

You are right... the average person wouldn't know what the market closed at on a particular day. But I bet the average person knows it was up big in September.... or at least they will when they get their quarterly statements in a couple days.

If the unemployment number changed daily, they wouldn't know that either. But it is a monthly number at it doesn't move very fast. So it is far easier to keep track of.
 
Who are "they?"

And given that you actually watch CNBC, I think your understanding of what normal people react and respond to relating to the economy isn't anywhere close to correct.

CNBC is the source the majority of Americans get their news on the economy. If you think it is from the nightly news, you are wrong. They listen to the idiots on CNBC. We listen to them so that we know what we have to communicate to our clients to combat the stupidity they get from CNBC.
 
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