U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Declines to Smallest in Three Years

[LV426]

complete trash. you ignore the actual wage growth and already record low unemployment.

Wage growth thanks solely to minimum wage increases...and that wage growth hasn't lead to wages high enough to pay down debt. All we've seen are personal debt levels rise. You're saying that people should borrow even though their wages are growing, but they're borrowing because their wages aren't high enough to sustain the spending...hence, why they go into debt.

So now you've painted yourself into a rhetorical corner; you are simultaneously arguing that wages are rising, but that it's OK for debt to rise because at some point, there will come a time when wages raise so much that they can be used to pay that debt back. But under your economics, that is impossible to achieve. Instead, what will happen is the debt bubble will grow and grow until it reaches a breaking point and results in a debt bubble collapse, like we saw happen in 2007-8.

 

[dukkha]

Not yet. But continue on this path and it will. What rate would wages need to grow in order to scale back borrowing? Because in your weird world, there is no rate. In your economics, personal debt levels should grow indefinitely. At what point will these unsecured, personal loans be paid back? If wages aren't rising fast enough to pay down personal debt, how does the personal debt get paid down?

I've gone over this again and again. People aren't always responsible,especially on unsecured loans.

But there is no shortage of loans -in fact loans are as easy to get then ever. do lenders just loan because of demand?
or do they loan because of demand and confidence they will get paid back with interest?

Because we are in a perfect place where consumer confidence is high and ALL ECONOMIC INDICATOR _ALL OF THEM
Both lenders and borrowers are confident in the ability to pay back -"it's the economy stupid"

 

[LV426]

I have no way to know either way, if it's up or down in 12 months.

You just got done arguing that this was the best trade deal ever, so if it doesn't reduce our trade deficit -or increases it- then it's a failure by your own metric.

A big, structural change wouldn't offer a lack of guarantees. You've been saying this thing is the best...but you won't put your money where your mouth is.

Offshoring is largely a function of cheap labor, but not the only factor. what it will do is stop the bleed ing for cheap autoworkers to Mexico

Of course, offshoring isn't really a thing anymore...automation is. How does NAFTA 1.5 address the job loss due to automation? If they bring jobs back to the US, those jobs will be for robots, not people.

 

[dukkha]

Wage growth thanks solely to minimum wage increases...and that wage growth hasn't lead to wages high enough to pay down debt. All we've seen are personal debt levels rise. You're saying that people should borrow even though their wages are growing, but they're borrowing because their wages aren't high enough to sustain the spending...hence, why they go into debt.

So now you've painted yourself into a rhetorical corner; you are simultaneously arguing that wages are rising, but that it's OK for debt to rise because at some point, there will come a time when wages raise so much that they can be used to pay that debt back. But under your economics, that is impossible to achieve. Instead, what will happen is the debt bubble will grow and grow until it reaches a breaking point and results in a debt bubble collapse, like we saw happen in 2007-8.

WTF are you yammering about? there are all kinds of suppositions in there. start with minimum wage is the driver of increases -it's not- It's supply and demand of labor; ( low unemployment) a basic principle. I have no desire to deconstruct the rest of this trash

 

[dukkha]

You just got done arguing that this was the best trade deal ever, so if it doesn't reduce our trade deficit -or increases it- then it's a failure by your own metric.

A big, structural change wouldn't offer a lack of guarantees. You've been saying this thing is the best...but you won't put your money where your mouth is.

these are LONG TERM STRUCTURAL CHANGES -i'm not about to say what happens short term. LONG TERM they reduce offshoing,and trade deficits,and provide job growth.

Im not the CBO -and am not going tos peculate on the short term - but the long terms improvements are thre



Of course, offshoring isn't really a thing anymore...automation is. How does NAFTA 1.5 address the job loss due to automation? If they bring jobs back to the US, those jobs will be for robots, not people.[/QUOTE]

 

[LV426]

I've gone over this again and again. People aren't always responsible,especially on unsecured loans.

So why are they taking that risk?

 

[LV426]

But there is no shortage of loans -in fact loans are as easy to get then ever. do lenders just loan because of demand?
or do they loan because of demand and confidence they will get paid back with interest?

Unsecured loans are too high risk and are being used as a bridge to make up for low wages. Again, we just went through this 15 years ago. Back then, subprime loans were wicked easy to get. You've learned nothing.

Because we are in a perfect place where consumer confidence is high and ALL ECONOMIC INDICATOR _ALL OF THEM

No 3% growth like you promised.

No $4,000 wage increases like you promised.

Consumer debt "skyrocketing".

DJIA growth just 15% since the Russia Tax Cut.

None of those are positive.

 

[LV426]

Both lenders and borrowers are confident in the ability to pay back -"it's the economy stupid"

This could have been uttered by Kudlow in 2005. In fact, it was.

 

[LV426]

WTF are you yammering about? there are all kinds of suppositions in there. start with minimum wage is the driver of increases -it's not- It's supply and demand of labor; ( low unemployment) a basic principle. I have no desire to deconstruct the rest of this trash

No, it is solely thanks to the minimum wage increases which were in 21 states this year, and will be in 25 states next year.

If the labor market was as tight as you say it is, personal debt levels would be decreasing because of higher wages. But they are increasing. That's because people are using credit to bridge the gap from wage stagnation.

 

[LV426]

WTF are you yammering about? there are all kinds of suppositions in there. start with minimum wage is the driver of increases -it's not- It's supply and demand of labor; ( low unemployment) a basic principle. I have no desire to deconstruct the rest of this trash

At what point will wages raise high enough that consumers don't need to take out unsecured personal loans?

 

[LV426]

these are LONG TERM STRUCTURAL CHANGES -i'm not about to say what happens short term. LONG TERM they reduce offshoing,and trade deficits,and provide job growth.

How? Offshoring isn't a thing anymore; automation is. You couldn't even make a weak promise the trade deficit would decline, and since Trump, it has only increased.

Job growth? Where? Manufacturing is in a recession not because of NAFTA.

 

[Noking]

This OP is a bit premature "U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Declines to Smallest in Three Years"

Monday’s figures cover goods only. Commerce will release full international trade data on Jan. 7, including services and more details on merchandise shipments.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...gap-shrank-in-november-to-smallest-since-2016

 

[Micawber]

and coal is coming back the same day Ozzy and Harriet and Father knows Best are going to remade into a blockbuster movie.

We need forward -progressive thinkers, not liars keeping the rabble oppressed and dumb going to Liberty U?

Did Kennedy get NASA to the moon by promoting coal, or fucking archeology tech? Fuck Trump