OOOPS! Looks like the "Big Experts" are on track to be wrong again; ATL Fed predicts excellent 3.4% GDP growth for Q3 2025.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate of 3.4% (Q3 2025) signals stronger-than-expected U.S. growth, driven by consumer spending, inventory restocking, and government expenditures, despite trade drags, labor softening, and 3% inflation.
The above-consensus forecast (vs. 2.5–3.0%) reinforces resilience in domestic demand and raises the likelihood of a 25 bps Fed rate cut at the September 17–18 FOMC meeting, though policy risks remain balanced between a bullish 50 bps cut and a bearish rate hold depending on inflation and labor market developments.
The stronger 3.4% GDPNow forecast underscores resilient U.S. growth momentum, which complicates the Fed’s decision at the September 17–18 FOMC meeting: while softer labor data and moderating inflation argue for easing, the upside growth surprise reduces urgency for aggressive cuts.
This balance makes a 25 bps rate cut the most likely outcome, allowing the Fed to acknowledge labor market risks without overstimulating an economy still showing robust demand, while keeping options open for further adjustments in coming meetings.
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The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate of 3.4% (Q3 2025) signals stronger-than-expected U.S. growth, driven by consumer spending, inventory restocking, and government expenditures, despite trade drags, labor softening, and 3% inflation.
The above-consensus forecast (vs. 2.5–3.0%) reinforces resilience in domestic demand and raises the likelihood of a 25 bps Fed rate cut at the September 17–18 FOMC meeting, though policy risks remain balanced between a bullish 50 bps cut and a bearish rate hold depending on inflation and labor market developments.
The stronger 3.4% GDPNow forecast underscores resilient U.S. growth momentum, which complicates the Fed’s decision at the September 17–18 FOMC meeting: while softer labor data and moderating inflation argue for easing, the upside growth surprise reduces urgency for aggressive cuts.
This balance makes a 25 bps rate cut the most likely outcome, allowing the Fed to acknowledge labor market risks without overstimulating an economy still showing robust demand, while keeping options open for further adjustments in coming meetings.
U.S. GDPNow Forecast Analysis - September 2025 - 09/16/25*
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, GDPNow, September 16, 2025 Source Link: GDPNow Synopsis The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate of 3.4% (Q3 2025) signals stronger-than-expected U.
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