Trump's RNC takeover "will set the party up for another string of defeats"

Doc Dutch said:
Like the MAGAts, you are misunderstanding the value of polls.
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The only value polls have is the amount of money paid by the newspaper or television network to commission the poll.

The polls don't make sense and haven't made sense since 2012.

These polls are dangerous because they're creating a false narrative that will not align with the actual election results; then all the Nazis will scream "fraud" because the actual election results don't even come close to matching the poll results.

Personally, I think polling should be outlawed along with private campaign donations.
 
LV426 said:
If you look at the past election results from the last 7 years, it would seem that people were underestimating the Democrats.

Apart from Trump's "win" in 2016, where he lost the popular vote by 3M, the GOP has lost or severely underperformed in every single election since.

Why would this election be any different than any of the others that have been held since 2017?
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Well


Trump is stealing every dime they get from their cult members


He doesn’t need to support all the down ballot races



He will just declare himself a dictator and make all other government positions meaningless
 
Doc Dutch said:
You're free to believe that, Ms. LV, but you would be making the mistake of underestimating your opponent.

I agree there's a good possibility that the Republicans will lose control of both Congress and the WH this year, but it would be silly to think that will be the legacy for all elections to come.

Like the MAGAts, you are misunderstanding the value of polls.
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The right in this nation is evil.

We need a reset


A party will take their place


They won’t be so lie and election cheating centered



That means a huge left shift dude
 
evince said:
Well

Trump is stealing every dime they get from their cult members

He doesn’t need to support all the down ballot races

He will just declare himself a dictator and make all other government positions meaningless
Click to expand...

Problem is that whatever he ends up doing doesn't matter because the Democrats are just going to tie all Republicans to him anyway.

That strategy has worked in every election since 2017.

The polls are creating a dangerous false narrative.
 
The Republican Party got here by being ANTI democracy


They spent over a decade insistent that America isn’t even a Democracy



The people are not as stupid as the Republicans need them to be
 
LV426 said:
Problem is that whatever he ends up doing doesn't matter because the Democrats are just going to tie all Republicans to him anyway.

That strategy has worked in every election since 2017.

The polls are creating a dangerous false narrative.
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The Republicans have already tied themselves to trump


They did it themselves
 
Flash said:
Yes.

42.7% Trump approval

38.4% Biden approval.

People don't like either one.
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Polls are stupid, worthless, and inaccurate.

But even worse, they're creating a false narrative about this election.

The polls, including favorability polls, make zero sense when stacked up against the last 7 years of election results.

The polls at this point in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 were ALL WRONG about the eventual election results.

Remember how wrong they were on the Newsom recall?!?!?!?!?

Anyone using opinion polls as the basis of their argument is laying the groundwork for Conservatives to scream "fraud" because the election results didn't match the polling for the 7th year in a row.
 
LV426 said:
If you look at the past election results from the last 7 years, it would seem that people were underestimating the Democrats.

Apart from Trump's "win" in 2016, where he lost the popular vote by 3M, the GOP has lost or severely underperformed in every single election since.

Why would this election be any different than any of the others that have been held since 2017?
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If so, that's just as wrong. Perhaps more people should read Sun Tzu.

I voted against him too.

The whole cultural phenomenon of Americans seeking an autocracy is a mystery to me.
 
evince said:
The right in this nation is evil.

We need a reset

A party will take their place

They won’t be so lie and election cheating centered

That means a huge left shift dude
Click to expand...
MAGAts? Yes. Conservatives in general? No. I'm on the Right albeit Left of the MAGAts. Am I evil, evince?

We need something. TBH, I think the nation has been going through a transition since the end of the Cold War and it hasn't been going in a positive direction. Both parties have moved towards the extreme and have grown more authoritarian. With the removal of the Clintons, I think the Democrats have somewhat stabilized themselves. With Trump, the Republicans have moved even more extreme, even more authoritarian. The Democrats never suggested eliminating the Republicans nor violently overthrowing the government and Constitution. I hope our nation comes to its senses this November.

Doubtful on a huge Left shift except in the case of the present Conservative party.
 
LV426 said:
Polls are stupid, worthless, and inaccurate.

But even worse, they're creating a false narrative about this election.
Click to expand...

Sure, it is too early to expect polls to mirror the final result in November. But polls are not to "predict" but present a snapshot of the voters on the day of the poll.

The last two presidential final election polls have been within the 3% margin of error.

2016
Real Clear Politics Final Poll Average: Clinton 48.2% Trump 46.1% +2.1 Clinton
Election Results: Clinton 46.8% Trump 43.8% +3.2% Clinton

2020
Real Clear Politics Final Poll Average: Biden 51.4% Trump 46.9% +4.5 Biden
Election Results: Biden 51.2% Trump 44% +7.2% Biden

2016 underestimated Clinton by 1.1% and 2020 underestimated Biden by 2.7%.

The fact that Trump won the electoral college in 2016 has nothing to do with poll accuracy since polls measure public opinion (popular votes) and not electoral votes.

There is no reason to believe turnout and final results will change much from 2020.
 
LV426 said:
The only value polls have is the amount of money paid by the newspaper or television network to commission the poll.

The polls don't make sense and haven't made sense since 2012.

These polls are dangerous because they're creating a false narrative that will not align with the actual election results; then all the Nazis will scream "fraud" because the actual election results don't even come close to matching the poll results.

Personally, I think polling should be outlawed along with private campaign donations.
Click to expand...

Disagreed. If you were correct, then why does the Biden, among other, political campaign use polls?

Your perception and views of polls is interesting, LV. Again, you share a lot with the MAGAts in this regard. I disagree with both you and the MAGAts. Polls are simply a tool, a snapshot in time. Tools that are misused can be thought of as being defective or useless, but that's on the user, not the tool itself.

Your authoritarian views, such as banning things, also puts you in league with the MAGAts.
 
Flash said:
There is no reason to believe most Republicans will stay home. It will be another high turnout election with another close outcome.
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Many? Yes. Most? Agreed.

Do you agree one reason Hillary lost in 2016 was because too many Democrats stayed home or voted 3rd party?
 
LV426 said:
The problem is that the GOP has nothing to campaign on because every single one of their policies have failed.
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Yet about half the country supports them. Why?

What is your final solution for the Conservative problem, LV?
 
Doc Dutch said:
Many? Yes. Most? Agreed.

Do you agree one reason Hillary lost in 2016 was because too many Democrats stayed home or voted 3rd party?
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Democrats were obviously voting in 2016 since Hillary got 3 million more votes than Trump. Turnout was about the same as preceding elections. I certainly agree there was not a lot of enthusiasm for either Hillary or Trump as they both had negative images.

I think an argument could be made that Democrats are as likely to stay home as Republicans.
 
Flash said:
Democrats were obviously voting in 2016 since Hillary got 3 million more votes than Trump. Turnout was about the same as preceding elections. I certainly agree there was not a lot of enthusiasm for either Hillary or Trump as they both had negative images.

I think an argument could be made that Democrats are as likely to stay home as Republicans.
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Yet she lost. Just because the Left Coast voted for her in droves wasn't enough, IMO. Agreed a lot disliked both of them. That's why I voted Libertarian and will do so again in 2024 unless Trump falls out and Nikki fills in.

Partial agreement; an argument can be made that Democrats will stay home out of frustration, but I think more Republicans would stay home out of disgust of a traitorous, oath-breaking autocrat. Specifically, the third that supported Nikki.

Like in 2016, it's not just how many stay home, but in what states they stay home. Specifically, four swing states: https://centerforpolitics.org/cryst...s-expect-another-highly-competitive-election/
— Our initial 2024 Electoral College ratings start with just four Toss-up states.
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