Russia's Game in Libya
https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/comment/2017/8/22/what-is-russias-game-in-libya
Russia is clearly taking a medium to long-term strategic view of Libya and wants to position itself in a way that it can still benefit from a close relationship, whoever the new emerging leaders of the country will be.
Last February, the Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC), which is aligned to the GNA in Tripoli, signed a major cooperation and investment deal with Rosneft, the Russian oil giant, which will allow Rosneft to have access to investment in the Libyan oil sector and to buy Libyan oil crude for the first time.
Geopolitically, Russia is aware of Libya's importance to the global energy market. Libya has the highest reserves of oil in Africa, and most of it has not been explored yet.
Libya is also already supplying gas to Europe through a pipeline under the Mediterranean Sea which runs into Italy. Russia is a major supplier of gas to Europe and by investing in the Libyan market, Russia will still maintain its dominant market share and a leverage in supplying energy to Europe.
Given Russia's ambitions for more influence in the Middle East, it could potentially benefit greatly from gaining a permanent naval facility on the Libyan coast in the strategic Mediterranean area, similar to the one it already has in Syria. Such a permanent facility could become a geopolitical bargaining card for Moscow against Europe and NATO.
However, Gaddafi refused Putin such a facility in 2008, and Haftar does not have the mandate or the power to grant this, given it is a highly sensitive sovereign issue for Libyans.
Russia will most likely continue to follow the patient long-term game of attempting to realise its pragmatic economic and geopolitical interests in Libya, and will probably maintain its anti-western and NATO rhetoric as well while doing so.
