Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election

[moon]

If I repeatedly contrive to make myself obnoxious will somebody please notice me ?

Sure. Carry on.

 

[cancel2 2022]

Norpoth's model did not exist in 1912, so it cannot be said to have "predicted" the election. You can very easily throw together a bunch of variables to create a model that fits past data. This model, however, cannot be said to predictive of future results.

I do have to laugh at this, because exactly the same can be said for climate models.

 

[Legion Troll]

I do have to laugh at this, because exactly the same can be said for climate models.

 

[Damocles]

Furthermore, Ronald Reagan led in all October/November polls before the election:

Right, each poll taken a week apart... He led in three polls before the election and won in the final poll. Reagan was behind in almost every poll until then. Polling at this point is useless in predicting the winner. There is a political eternity before this election is held.