Trump "bounce" over

Clock Town said:
please understand how statistics work. Even nate silver has him at ~40% right now. That's 40% to win. Go to random.org and put in the numbers 1-10. Run it a few times. Are you going to be shocked when a 1,2,3 or 4 show up?

The type of thinking you are exhibiting is absolutely delusional, and it's also proof you live in a bubble. You literally can't comprehend him winning. That is a big mistake you are making.
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Yup. I agree. Betting odds currently have Clinton 68%, Trump 32%. Essentially a 1:3 probability of winning. Won't blow my mind at all if he wins. I might be mildly surprised as the data clearly shows the probability of winning is clearly in her favor but it's not like the data is +4 std. deviations in her favor.

In fact I'm expecting all sorts of grand comedy to erupt regardless of who is elected. For those who prefer chaos Trump is definitely the guy to vote for. Trumps winning would irrevocably change the GOP's basic coalitions. If it becomes the party of white working class males, you will begin to see the GOP hemorrhage the entrepreneurial and management class. Where will they go? That in terms can have major consequences for the Democrats? Will they be the party of liberals and big business? The GOP has hemorrhaged college educated people as badly as the Democrats have hemorrhaged white working class men. There's no telling where things would go or end up at but it would be a titanic shift in our nations politics.

Where as Clinton probably represents four more years of the status quo. Which means the GOP circles the wagons after the election and tries to mend its fences but no real change unless they lose the Senate too.

For me the last 8 years have been pretty darned good so I have good reason to go with the status quo.

Trump on the other hand, for better or worse, would make things interesting. He will, however, implode the GOP if he's elected. That can have a lot of unforeseen consequences.
 
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christiefan915 said:
NEW YORK, July 29 (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton held a 6- percentage-point lead over Republican rival Donald Trump, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll with new wording that was released on Friday, the day after she formally accepted her party's nomination for the Nov. 8 election.

Nearly 41 percent of likely voters favor Clinton, 35 percent favor Trump, and 25 percent picked "Other," according to the new July 25-29 online poll of 1,043 likely voters, which overlapped with the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.

The poll has a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

http://www.aol.com/article/2016/07/30/clinton-leads-trump-by-6-points-after-democratic-confab/21441808/


Trump for Prison 2016
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Does it worry you that 25% chose "other"?
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Yup. I agree. Betting odds currently have Clinton 68%, Trump 32%. Essentially a 1:3 probability of winning. Won't blow my mind at all if he wins. I might be mildly surprised as the data clearly shows the probability of winning is clearly in her favor but it's not like the data is +4 std. deviations in her favor.

In fact I'm expecting all sorts of grand comedy to erupt regardless of who is elected. For those who prefer chaos Trump is definitely the guy to vote for. Trumps winning would irrevocably change the GOP's basic coalitions. If it becomes the party of white working class males, you will begin to see the GOP hemorrhage the entrepreneurial and management class. Where will they go? That in terms can have major consequences for the Democrats? Will they be the party of liberals and big business? The GOP has hemorrhaged college educated people as badly as the Democrats have hemorrhaged white working class men. There's no telling where things would go or end up at but it would be a titanic shift in our nations politics.

Where as Clinton probably represents four more years of the status quo. Which means the GOP circles the wagons after the election and tries to mend its fences but no real change unless they lose the Senate too.

For me the last 8 years have been pretty darned good so I have good reason to go with the status quo.

Trump on the other hand, for better or worse, would make things interesting. He will, however, implode the GOP if he's elected. That can have a lot of unforeseen consequences.
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i actually think the GOP is already fucked up. The base is anti-globalist now in contrast to the party elites. there is a big schism.
 
Milagro said:
So why do you obsess over him every day on here?
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Oh, I dunno. It's a political message board. He's a major political figure. His candidacy says a lot about America & where we are right now.

What's it to ya? Why do you constantly post oil industry propaganda & work out your own misogynistic demons on here?
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Yup. I agree. Betting odds currently have Clinton 68%, Trump 32%. Essentially a 1:3 probability of winning. Won't blow my mind at all if he wins. I might be mildly surprised as the data clearly shows the probability of winning is clearly in her favor but it's not like the data is +4 std. deviations in her favor.

In fact I'm expecting all sorts of grand comedy to erupt regardless of who is elected. For those who prefer chaos Trump is definitely the guy to vote for. Trumps winning would irrevocably change the GOP's basic coalitions. If it becomes the party of white working class males, you will begin to see the GOP hemorrhage the entrepreneurial and management class. Where will they go? That in terms can have major consequences for the Democrats? Will they be the party of liberals and big business? The GOP has hemorrhaged college educated people as badly as the Democrats have hemorrhaged white working class men. There's no telling where things would go or end up at but it would be a titanic shift in our nations politics.

Where as Clinton probably represents four more years of the status quo. Which means the GOP circles the wagons after the election and tries to mend its fences but no real change unless they lose the Senate too.

For me the last 8 years have been pretty darned good so I have good reason to go with the status quo.

Trump on the other hand, for better or worse, would make things interesting. He will, however, implode the GOP if he's elected. That can have a lot of unforeseen consequences.
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Isn't it also possible that Trump winning the election would also cause disruption in the Democrat party also??
Then add in the leaked E-Mails showing their duplicity when it comes to Sanders and then that revelation where Hispanics are referred to as "TACO BOWL VOTERS".
 
Thing1 said:
Oh, I dunno. It's a political message board. He's a major political figure. His candidacy says a lot about America & where we are right now.

What's it to ya? Why do you constantly post oil industry propaganda & work out your own misogynistic demons on here?
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Climate change is all about the science for me, I do not view it politically as you do. There is a vast amount of evidence to show that warming has been grossly exaggerated. In a nutshell, I prefer science to Scientology you don't.

As for the misogyny charge, I will take no lessons from somebody who keeps quiet whilst a nasty racist bitch like Darla calls Asian women suckee fuckees. What do you have to say to that, nothing I'll bet?
 
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With the obvious failure of capitalism and the general suppression of any sensible socialist alternative, a mood of wholly irrational oppositionism is sweeping the world. It seemed impossible that anything as senseless as Brexit could win a popular vote, but people decided they didn't need noses and cut them off to spite Cameron, so it will take more rationality than America is normally credited with to reject the trumpers.
 
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