The state’s chief economist has warned the staff of Gov. Rick Scott that his Medicaid cost estimates are wrong, but Scott keeps using them anyway, according to e-mails obtained by Health News Florida (Update: Scott to Look at Other Estimates).
Scott says he opposes expanding Florida Medicaid because it would cost too much: $63 billion over 10 years, he says, with the state paying $26 billion of that.
But those numbers are based on a flawed report, according to a legislative budget analyst and State Economist Amy Baker. A series of e-mails obtained by Health News Florida shows the analysts warned Scott’s office the numbers were wrong weeks ago, but he is still using them. He cited them in a Tampa Bay Times op-ed on Sunday and at at a Washington press conference on Monday (see YouTube video).
The flawed report, “Estimates Related to the Affordable Care Act,” was sent to members of the Legislative Budget Commission on Dec. 17. Three days later, two of the recipients pointed out the faulty assumptions and sent it back to AHCA for a do-over. They said it would violate Florida law to proceed with the estimate.
But Michael Anway, Scott’s new coordinator for health policy and budget, sent an e-mail Friday to the others saying he will submit the original estimates as an “alternative forecast” when the revised AHCA report comes before the next budget estimating conference.
Anway said he doesn’t believe the federal funds will come through. “The federal government has a $16 trillion national debt, must borrow 46 cents of every dollar it spends, and in 2011 had its credit rating downgraded for the first time in history,” he wrote in explanation.
Anway joined Scott’s staff in early December after working for members of Congress, then for the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, or PhRMA. The Center for Responsive Politics' web site Open Secrets.org names Anway on its list of people in the “Revolving Door,” who go from the government to industry lobbyist and back.
The AHCA cost estimates sent out in December came from the staff of Tom Wallace, Medicaid finance chief, the e-mails showed. The estimates immediately raised eyebrows because they had tripled since August.
AHCA spokeswoman Michelle Dahnke said the estimates were updated after rules for the Affordable Care Act were released by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
However, a closer look at the assumptions on which the calculations were based showed that the estimates zoomed mainly because AHCA decided not to count the increase in federal funds included in the Affordable Care Act.
