The War in Ukraine

[Scott]

For now. The U.S. can get better, as it once was better. I still remember the time when Russia made sure that other nations didn't help out the southern states during the civil war:

The Time the US Actually Welcomed a Russian Blockade—During the Civil War

Abraham Lincoln and Russia’s Czar Alexander II formed an unusual, but crucial, wartime alliance.

www.historynet.com

Abraham Lincoln and the Russian Czar at the time also both freed many slaves:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/before-lincoln-issued-the-emancipation-proclamation-this-russian-czar-freed-20-million-serfs-180980652/

For a very long time....there must be justice.....America must pay for our many crimes....the Chinese will insist.

I don't know about the Chinese being out for justice. What I'm pretty sure about, though, is that things in the U.S. will need to get worse before they can get better though. Part of the problem is the mindset of many Americans. They seem to think that they should get more simply because they were born in the U.S. Along these lines, many Americans blame immigrants for taking jobs they think should be theirs, while casting a blind eye to the fact that it's American employers who are hiring said immigrants, including illegal ones. Trump was certainly no exception back when he wasn't President.

 

[Scott]

"If there is nuclear war then we all die, but we are going to Heaven, you are going to Hell"
Putin to Us.

Is that a real quote or did you just make it up ?

 

[Scott]

EU/UK demand Russia surrender. Merz & Trump DEMAND ARMISTICE. Kallas sets up War Crimes Tribunal​

Let them all talk, if that's what makes them happy. Russia knows this war is about action, not talk.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Is that a real quote or did you just make it up ?

It is a real quote.....I do not lie.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Alex Christoforou

@AXChristoforou


The 4 Plus 1 (Macron, Starmer, Merz, Tusk + Trump) thought they had Putin boxed in by creating a photo+media spectacle in Kiev, around what was essentially the Kellogg Freeze Plan presented two weeks ago in London. The 4 Plus 1 did what they do best, media trickery. They pushed a plan that masked Minsk 3. They pushed a plan that Russia publicly turned down hundreds of times. They ignored discussing Russia's publically stated terms, June 2024 root causes. For the first time in history, the losing side in a war believed they were dictating terms, and winning. An ultimatum demanded Russia agree to a 30 day unconditional ceasefire or face Lindsey Graham bone crushing sanctions.They took instagram photos, 4 European leaders with Churchill #2, walking the streets of Kiev, confident in their geopolitical brillance. Trump fully backed their efforts via phone call, all of it was captured on video. Then Putin gave his late night speech (western media seated up front) and completely outclassed the 4 Plus 1. Putin skillfully rejected the ceasefire ultimatum, presenting his case why Ukraine was incapable of honoring any ceasefire agreement. Putin called for Russia-Ukraine direct negotiations "without any preconditions" in Istanbul, where the previous 2022 negotiations were held and a ceasefire agreed, until Zelensky and Bojo broke that deal.Putin is 10 steps ahead of the 4 Plus 1. Now we know why Russia went along with Trump's 30 day energy ceaseefire, why Russia held a one day Easter ceasefire, and why the 3 day Victory Day ceasefire was called. Putin was building his case, knowing the west and its proxy would never honor a ceasefire...one day, three days or thirty days. Russia patiently waited for the Europeans and Zelensky to pull the ceasefire ultimatum stunt we witnessed in Kiev. The big disappointment in all of this was Trump's very public, full backing of the Kellogg ceasefire plan. Trump revealed himself. Now Russia, and the world, knows exactly where everyone stands. Next week, Istanbul 2.0...ball is in your court, 4 Plus 1.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Scott Ritter

@RealScottRitter


If the President of the United States was caught with a bag of cocaine and related paraphernalia, every media outlet in America would be going ape shit.The President of France, Chancellor of Germany and the Prime Minister of Great Britain get caught in flagrante snorting coke, and there’s deathly silence from their respective media.It’s as if everyone understands Europe is being run by a bunch of drug addicts and coke heads.

 

[Hawkeye10]

The main thing about the cocaine in Kiev is the stunning recklessness of the European leaders....the level of "I dont give a fuck".

 

[Hawkeye10]

I don't know about the Chinese being out for justice. What I'm pretty sure about, though, is that things in the U.S. will need to get worse before they can get better though. Part of the problem is the mindset of many Americans. They seem to think that they should get more simply because they were born in the U.S. Along these lines, many Americans blame immigrants for taking jobs they think should be theirs, while casting a blind eye to the fact that it's American employers who are hiring said immigrants, including illegal ones. Trump was certainly no exception back when he wasn't President.

America is the addict that must hit bottom, the bully the must get their ass kicked.

Americans refuse to learn, at this point only BIG PAIN, the teacher of last resort, can work.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Alexander in his brief today says that Putin for the first time has called this a war.

That's Interesting.

 

[Scott]

It is a real quote.....I do not lie.

I put it in an internet search, came up with nothing. Can you source it?

 

[Hawkeye10]

I put it in an internet search, came up with nothing. Can you source it?

No....but I would bet my house that if you were to ask Putin he would say that he said it.

EDIT:

Russians 'will go to heaven' in event of nuclear war: Putin - France 24

Russians 'will go to heaven' in event of nuclear war: Putin

www.france24.com

 

[Hawkeye10]

"Tactics without strategy is noise before defeat"

 

[Hawkeye10]

Lord Bebo
@MyLordBebo

“Zelensky will not meet with anyone other than Putin in Istanbul”- PodolyakHere we go, Putin will send a negation delegation… as it is coming practice.

--------------------------------------------------

The expectation is that the Imperial Empire vassal Ukraine will refuse to negotiate the end of what Putin has for the very first time called a war.

 

[Hawkeye10]

MacGregor says on Deep Dive that his take is that the number of Poles who have died in the NATO Army in Ukraine is 10,000 to 20,000.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Lord Bebo

@MyLordBebo

Macron, Merz, Starmer, Zelensky:“Russia is desperate for a ceasefire”... 5 minutes later…“We suggest a 30 day unconditional ceasefire and we will continue to arm Ukraine in the meantime.”… 5 minutes later …“We demand that Russia accept the ceasefire”… 5 minutes later …“It’s Russia who is losing and is desperate to rearm.… 5 minutes later …“Why is Russia ignoring our ceasefire demand?”

 

[Hawkeye10]

Glenn Diesen

@Glenn_Diesen
Subscribe


Europe threatens to sanction its own energy infrastructure that has already been destroyed to get a ceasefire (without a political settlement)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1921905697089810766

 

[Phantasmal]

“Russia is on pace to run out of financial reserves by this fall, which would cripple war efforts, economist says”​

Russia is on pace to run out of financial reserves by this fall, which would cripple war efforts, economist says

Russia has spent most of its National Wealth Fund in the past few years, with liquid funds potentially being depleted in 2025, one economist says.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Scott]

“Russia is on pace to run out of financial reserves by this fall, which would cripple war efforts, economist says”​

Russia is on pace to run out of financial reserves by this fall, which would cripple war efforts, economist says

Russia has spent most of its National Wealth Fund in the past few years, with liquid funds potentially being depleted in 2025, one economist says.

www.businessinsider.com

I see the story was originally published in January. Here's a more recent financial outlook for Russia:

IMF raises Russian 2025 economic growth forecast slightly, to 1.5% from 1.4%

interfax.com

 

[Scott]

Just read the free part of a good article from Events in Ukraine. It can be seen here:

Vexing vegetation: frontline update

Kill zones and green zones. Russian advances under tree cover. 'Getting to the positions isn’t much easier than surviving on them.' 200 days in a frontline hole.

eventsinukraine.substack.com

 

[Scott]

Skimmed through a new article from Simplicius. Quoting a bit near the end of it below:
**
In response to Europe’s new ‘threats’ of massive sanctions as seen by the article above, reporter Ben Aris writes:

I cant take this seriously any more

Macron Warns Russia Faces 'Massive' Europe, US Sanctions If It Breaks 30-day Truce https://www.barrons.com/news/macron...-30-day-truce-5924e1da?refsec=topics_afp-news

a total of over 30,000 sanctions have been put on Russia yet it put in 4.3% growth last year and it is EU that has gone into recession.

this is all meaningless #somethingmustbedone rhetoric. sanctions affect EU economy worse than they affect the Russian one.

the only slowdown Russia econ is experiencing at the moment was self-inflicted by Nabi to try and bring inflation down.. will still grow faster than EU this year...

—

Ukrainian analyst Myroshnykov also again chimes in on the above. But note his plan for Ukraine’s survival:

Now, a "proposal for a 30-day ceasefire" has spread among the masses, and if it is refused, sanctions will be imposed on the Russian Federation and military assistance to Ukraine will be increased.

Well, the Russian Federation will not refuse outright.

It will be the classic "Yes, but...".

And even if Trump regards this as a refusal (which is very controversial), the swamp scum would have sneezed at the sanctions.

And the "increase in military aid to Ukraine" that Starmer is talking about - well, what is that about? Something that was not voted on by the US Congress?

The United States has ~$4 billion left in Biden aid. Europe will not be able to allocate significantly more.

That is, this is current assistance, not substantial.

The only thing that can force the Russian Federation to enter into any negotiations is a significant strengthening of Ukraine and its troops.

Not a teaspoon for an hour. But significantly. That is, armor, artillery and shells in the amount of x2-x3 of what has already been transferred. Dozens of air defense batteries. Tens (or even hundreds) of billions of dollars of direct military support.

This is the only way out.

Yes, this is not about "I will solve the war in 24 hours/100 days". It's much longer.

But there is no other way to resolve the war.

So, the only way for Ukraine to survive is for the ‘partners’ to increase all weapons and armor shipments by 2 or 3 times, with hundreds of billions of dollars of direct military aid. In other words: Ukraine is screwed.
**

Full article:

SITREP 5/12/25: More 'Talks' Games as Russian Machine Barrels Forward

Again the smokescreen of peace talks tries desperately to overshadow mounting Russian advances.

simplicius76.substack.com