..."The clues came in Nevada and Delaware, where Palin-backed ‘commonsense conservative’ mama grizzly candidates cost Republicans two Senate seats.
In Delaware, Palin and the far right endorsed Christine O’Donnell over Mike Castle, a moderate and the most popular Republican in the state. In recent times, Castle is the only Republican to win statewide office in deep blue Delaware.
Polls indicated Castle would have easily won election to the Senate. He was an early and forceful opponent of the Obama health scam, despite his moderate reputation. That’s about as conservative as you can be in Biden country.
But Palin and the tea party used Castle’s ‘yea’ vote on the House cap-and-trade bill – which died in the Senate and never became law – to denounce him as ideologically impure and push O’Donnell, who predictably lost to Obama Democrat Chris Coons.
They ignored Delaware’s concerns with O’Donnell’s alleged fudged credentials and thin qualifications. Voters never took her seriously – to them, she never demonstrated Senatorial gravitas.
Since her inevitable loss, O’Donnell supporters have desperately pushed an exit poll saying Caste would have lost to Coons by a percentage point. Of course the context of that exit poll is that Castle has not been able to run a campaign for months. If he had, he would have easily topped Coons.
Republicans Karl Rove and Charles Krauthammer repeatedly denounced O'Donnell's candidacy and the endorements that enabled it as destructive and unpractical. This column echoed those concerns and easily predicted O’Donnell’s loss as a failure of ideological purity.
It does not portend well for Palin 2012. Voter perceptions of O‘Donnell as lacking gravitas are echoed in their perceptions of Palin, who would not flip a single blue state against Obama. But since Presidential elections are won in purple swing states, the tea party’s Nevada disaster is even more instructive.
The last two elected Democrat Presidents picking off Nevada. Despite conservative leanings, Nevada has a formidable Democratic machine headed by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Reid has held elected office there for forty-two years, representing the state to the US Senate since 1986.
Reid became hated over the past two years as one of the chief architects of the Obama agenda. Even as voters reelected him yesterday, they told exit pollsters that they still disapproved of Reid 55% to 44%. Given that and the state’s 14% unemployment, Reid should have lost to any generic Republican.
But Reid won, because Republicans declined to nominate a generic Republican. Instead, they let him face a divisive, unpopular, controversial right-winger prone to extreme statements.
Post-Partisan Examiner wrote on eve of the GOP primary that Sharron Angle’s impending nomination was a glaring mistake. Angle’s primary opponent Danny Tarkanian would have been the safer choice for conservatives. No matter, the mama grizzly got the nod, endorsed by Palin and the tea party.
Tarkanian went on to work for Angle’s election, but even he had to acknowledge the Angle nomination error meant a Reid win:
"Reid had no chance to win before. He has a shot to win now. He could still lose, but I have to say he is favored."
Instead of being a referendum on Reid’s unpopularity, the contest morphed into a referendum on Angle’s flaws. A Palin nomination will play out in similar terms.
In 2012, Obama’s approval rating will be in the tank. Voters will be looking for a reason to boot him from office. Republicans, if they want the White House, should nominate a sound, reasonable, affable, generic conservative.
If they do so, the election will be a referendum on Obama, one he will not win. If they nominate Palin, it will be a referendum on her, one she will not win.
The charges leveled against Palin – divisiveness, unpopularity, extremeness – were also leveled against Ronald Reagan, both Clintons, and George Bush. Crucially though, voters believed those people were at least qualified for the Presidency.
Most voters, including a majority of independents, don’t see Palin as qualified and can’t see her as President – the sentiment that sunk the tea party candidates in Nevada and Delaware. If Palin cannot change that statistic in the next year, a Palin nomination will surely ensure Obama’s reelection..."
http://www.examiner.com/post-partis...osses-nevada-delaware-bad-news-for-palin-2012