Sennate too close to call!

Jarod

Jarod

Well-known member
Contributor
So anyone ready to make bets on who controlls the Sennate after the november election?

I am not willing to bet yet... I think it is VERY close... 50/50?

The two indipendents who are likely to win will vote with the Democrats on control issues.

Does anyone think there might be some in the Republican party ready to defect if its close?

Olympia Snow maybe?
Susam Collins?

Any other ideas?
 
Dems would have to sweep the table, to pick up six seats.

Or five. Chaffe might switch parties, if the Senate is split 50-50. Maybe. But, bush saved his ass in RI, so chaffe owes him.

I don't see Dems getting a majority.
 
Opinion is also starting to get less anti-Republican. If the election had been held 2-3 months ago, the Democrats would have a good chance to when both houses because people hated Republicans so much. But now the approval rating of the establishment is starting to go back up.
 
Watermark said:
Opinion is also starting to get less anti-Republican. If the election had been held 2-3 months ago, the Democrats would have a good chance to when both houses because people hated Republicans so much. But now the approval rating of the establishment is starting to go back up.
Click to expand...

i wonder why? 6500 iraqis were killed in just july and august and only 170 were killed in jan 06? the chaos is escalating?
 
Watermark said:
Opinion is also starting to get less anti-Republican. If the election had been held 2-3 months ago, the Democrats would have a good chance to when both houses because people hated Republicans so much. But now the approval rating of the establishment is starting to go back up.
Click to expand...

Opinion is also starting to get less anti-Republican.

You don't know that. That's just the Rush Limbaugh and corporate media spin. The polls are over the place now. We have to wait to see if there's a longer term trend.

NY Times just put out a poll today, showing Dems with a 50%-35% lead on the generic congressional ballot.
 
You can't go by national polls, they mean nothing. We elect senators and congressmen state by state. You really have to zero in on all the races to get an accurate look at what will happen.
 
If this were a proportional system the democrats would probably get more seats than the Republicans. What we have now amounts to a badly mutlitulated version of the popular vote. Usually Democrats do better in the polls than they do in congressional elections, though. In 1992, when the Republicans won 52 seats in the house, the Democrats were outopolling the Republicans by 5%. I do believe I've seen figures saying that Republicans got the most votes in that election, also, although the votes to seats won ratio in that election was greatly exxagerated.
 
Cypress said:
Opinion is also starting to get less anti-Republican.

You don't know that. That's just the Rush Limbaugh and corporate media spin. The polls are over the place now. We have to wait to see if there's a longer term trend.

NY Times just put out a poll today, showing Dems with a 50%-35% lead on the generic congressional ballot.
Click to expand...

Bush's approval is going up, and terrorism and other such phantom menaces the REpublicans throw up are starting to get more imporatant to people. The system in place to day is very stable for the Republicans - this can be seen by the fact that the George Bush would have won far more electoral votes in the 2004 election if we had gone by congressional districts rather than the gerrymander proof at-large system we use now. The congressional districts are currently gerrymandered to favor Republicans.
 
my sense is that once the magnitude of this exponentially rising sectarian slaughter starts to sink in....once the fact that we are sending MORE troops over and not less hits home....once the fact that Iraqis are NOT standing up so that we can sit down becomes clearer in the next few weeks, things could get real ugly real fast for the GOP...
 
maineman said:
my sense is that once the magnitude of this exponentially rising sectarian slaughter starts to sink in....once the fact that we are sending MORE troops over and not less hits home....once the fact that Iraqis are NOT standing up so that we can sit down becomes clearer in the next few weeks, things could get real ugly real fast for the GOP...
Click to expand...

Better hope it happens on November second, because that single days opinion will control the house for the next two years.
 
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