Russia, Nato and the return to cold war

[anatta]

With the demise of the communist-led countries of eastern Europe and the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, the world breathed easier and we all felt that we would no longer stand permanently on the edge of a nuclear Armageddon.
The post-cold war escalation of Nato activities and the encirclement of Russia threatens, once again, to take us back to those precarious times . One doesn’t have to be an apologist for Putin to recognise that Russia is being demonised and the recent reinforcement of Nato troops in Estonia and Romania will only increase Russia’s fear of western intentions and ratchet up the danger of conflict.

The idea that Putin’s Russia poses a threat to western Europe is a myth concocted by the US and the military-industrial complex in order to assert its worldwide hegemony.
Russia’s effective intervention in Syria to prop up Assad and to prevent the forces of Islamic fundamentalism taking over does not fit the script written by the US and its allies, so there is a renewed determination to punish them – an extremely dangerous tactic that could backfire catastrophically.
We need to demand that our government plays no role in this unnecessary escalation.
John Green
London

 

[anatta]

Your article “Cold war 2.0” (25 October) suggested that “extended sanctions could weaken Putin’s grip on power”. My impression was that this had been western policy towards Russia for more than 10 years now, during which time President Putin’s popularity within the country has never fallen below 60% and at present “languishes” at 82%. I think it was Einstein who defined insanity as “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”.
Paul Hewitson
Berlin, Germany
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/27/russia-nato-and-the-return-to-a-cold-war

 

[anatta]

Throughout his presidency, Barack Obama has viewed Russia largely through the prism of its ailing economy and early on concluded Moscow was essentially a weak adversary trying to compensate for its impotence with shows of military bravado. Putin was “pursuing 19th-century policies with 20th-century weapons in the 21st century”, the president told at least one foreign visitor.

During his 2012 re-election campaign, when his opponent Mitt Romney suggested Russia might be the country’s “No 1 geopolitical foe”, the president led the derision.

“The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back because the cold war’s been over for 20 years,” Obama said in one of the presidential debates.

More recently, he has adjusted his rhetoric to claim Putin was over-stretching Moscow’s capacity and would ultimately become trapped in Syria as the US was trapped in Iraq and Afghanistan. The word “quagmire” began to appear more frequently in the talking points being distributed by senior administration officials.

A President Clinton would take a more hawkish view, and she would find support in the Senate. Ben Cardin, the ranking Democrat on the Senate foreign relations committee and a Russia specialist, said the US needed to revisit its whole approach to Russia. He said: “Through its words and deeds, it appears Vladimir Putin’s Russia is not a partner for peace.”

That view has extended to the US military. General Tommy Franks, head of the US army, said: “I think we were all optimistic. Perhaps [we] misread certain things, but also in the last 15 years our focus has been on Iraq and Afghanistan. We reduced the volume of people who could speak and read Russian. We were so busy trying to produce Arabic and Pashto speakers. We took our eye off the ball.”

ultimately the key decisions will be taken in the new White House. Anthony Cordesman, a strategic analyst at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said the new administration must confront three realities. “First, Russia is a now broad strategic rival and is likely to remain so at least as long as Putin is in power. Second, the US can’t rebalance to Asia away from Europe or the Middle East. And third, short of being chased off the stage, the United States will have to play out a weak hand in Syria to limit and contain Russian influence.”

“There are no easy answers to the Russians,” said a Washington-based European diplomat. “They are deploying such aggressive rhetoric and policy. During the cold war there was an accepted vocabulary between the sides. There was a game, there was an accepted game,” the diplomat said. “Now the danger is there is no order. There is no accepted language. We are not talking the same language”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...sia-and-the-west-reheated-a-historic-struggle

 

[Cypress]

Never heard of this "John Green" from London, and do not find his arguments and writing compelling in any way.

The premise that the US belligerently "encircled" Russia post-Yeltsin sounds like Kremlin propaganda to me. Nobody put a gun to the heads of Poland, Lithuania, Hungary, et al to force them to join NATO. Those countries, and their citizens overwhelmingly wanted to join NATO of their own free will. If Russia would ever adopt democratic institutions, and meet membership criteria for NATO, I would have no problem having them joining NATO either. I am a big fan of vodka!

As for the military industrial complex, I don't think "John Green" in London is in a position to lecture liberals on the dangers of militarism and hegemony. There are a lot of former Iraq War supporters - like Donald Drumpf - who minions belatedly endeavor to position him as the champion of east-wet détente. Laughable when you really think about it. Drumpf is on record advocating a nuclear arms race.

As far as Europe is concerned, there is a well established Record of one country acting belligerently, aggressive, and militaristic towards its European neighbors. I suggest "John Green" review what Russia has done in Georgia, Chechnya, Crimea, and Ukraine.

 

[anatta]

why not join NATO? there are no downsides for those little countries, but more importantly James Baker did say after German unification that NATO would not expand eastwards. Look at a map to see how far they did.

Trump is not advocating a nuclear arms race -he is advocating modernization -but nukes and detente
are not the only reason for detente. The sheer number of conventional weapons pointed at each other
is a costly arms race..

Yes Russia is pushing back on NATO expansionism,,that's hardly surprising

 

[Darth Omar]

Never heard of this "John Green" from London, and do not find his arguments and writing compelling in any way.

The premise that the US belligerently "encircled" Russia post-Yeltsin sounds like Kremlin propaganda to me. Nobody put a gun to the heads of Poland, Lithuania, Hungary, et al to force them to join NATO. Those countries, and their citizens overwhelmingly wanted to join NATO of their own free will. If Russia would ever adopt democratic institutions, and meet membership criteria for NATO, I would have no problem having them joining NATO either. I am a big fan of vodka!

As for the military industrial complex, I don't think "John Green" in London is in a position to lecture liberals on the dangers of militarism and hegemony. There are a lot of former Iraq War supporters - like Donald Drumpf - who minions belatedly endeavor to position him as the champion of east-wet détente. Laughable when you really think about it. Drumpf is on record advocating a nuclear arms race.

As far as Europe is concerned, there is a well established Record of one country acting belligerently, aggressive, and militaristic towards its European neighbors. I suggest "John Green" review what Russia has done in Georgia, Chechnya, Crimea, and Ukraine.

Those former Soviet satellites aren't in NATO.

Putin is a 'good' dictator in realpolitik terms: he's not insane and can be reasoned with: though, like all dictators, he can be slippery. It would be insane for Russia to make a move on NATO. It would be the end of Russia.

In contrast, the little NK dictator is insane, literally. We should be thankful he's not in the Kremlin, because it would totally change the calculus in Europe.

The realpolitik question is how much is it worth to us to keep Putin from threatening the former Soviet Satellites? Isn't radical Islam our first concern? To my knowledge, Russia hasn't attacked us, they weren't behind 9/11 and they have no plans, that anyone is aware of, of attacking us and starting WWIII.

That would be insane and Putin isn't insane.

 

[anatta]

I'm pretty sure there are some former Eastern Block countries in NATO..
I'm not an expert on NATO. But I can look at maps.

 

[Darth Omar]

I'm pretty sure there are some former Eastern Block countries in NATO..
I'm not an expert on NATO. But I can look at maps.

Apparently I'm not an expert either lol.

But aren't Ukraine and Crimea part of Russia, culturally? Poland, East Germany etc, not so much? What I was getting at is I'm under the impression Putin's motives aren't open-ended empire so much as bringing the culturally Russian countries back into Russia.

I may be wrong about that too lol. But if that's the case, he's no threat to NATO and certainly not to Western Europe.

 

[anatta]

^ yes..at least 1/2 of Ukraine speaks Russian as first language -and the signage is in Russian
and don't forget western meddling in Uk's elections

 

[Airstrip One]

Never heard of this "John Green" from London, and do not find his arguments and writing compelling in any way.

The premise that the US belligerently "encircled" Russia post-Yeltsin sounds like Kremlin propaganda to me. Nobody put a gun to the heads of Poland, Lithuania, Hungary, et al to force them to join NATO. Those countries, and their citizens overwhelmingly wanted to join NATO of their own free will. If Russia would ever adopt democratic institutions, and meet membership criteria for NATO, I would have no problem having them joining NATO either. I am a big fan of vodka!

As for the military industrial complex, I don't think "John Green" in London is in a position to lecture liberals on the dangers of militarism and hegemony. There are a lot of former Iraq War supporters - like Donald Drumpf - who minions belatedly endeavor to position him as the champion of east-wet détente. Laughable when you really think about it. Drumpf is on record advocating a nuclear arms race.

As far as Europe is concerned, there is a well established Record of one country acting belligerently, aggressive, and militaristic towards its European neighbors. I suggest "John Green" review what Russia has done in Georgia, Chechnya, Crimea, and Ukraine.

Welcome back. I'm still pretty skeptical of Russia's motives, which puts me in the camp that anatta would call the John McCain Warmonger crowd.

 

[blackascoal]

More false angst about Russia and the 'cold war' .. Boohoo.

The Russian people live like paupers and beggars. The Russian economy is dismal and still tanking .. and Putin is in no shape to engage in any real war with the West.

Millions more Russians living in poverty as economic crisis bites
Nearly 20 million now surviving on wages which are below the poverty threshold according to latest state statistics
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ns-living-in-poverty-as-economic-crisis-bites

Inside Vladimir Putin's new Russia, where corrupt tycoons plunder billions while 19.2 million live in poverty
Beggars on the street are commonplace and in Moscow alone 90,000 women have turned to prostitution to afford food
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/inside-vladimir-putins-new-russia-9976578

Libyans had a higher standard of living than Russians.

Russia has already lost the economic war with the West .. now it engages in a new propaganda war in its desperate attempt to gain leverage .. and its traitorous agents are among us.

The West needs no 'reset' with Russia. The Russian system will collapse on its own.

Decline, Not Collapse: The Bleak Prospects for Russia’s Economy
February 02, 2017

Russia faces bleak economic prospects for the next few years. It may be a case of managed decline in which the government appeases social and political demands by tapping the big reserves it accumulated during the boom years with oil and gas exports. But there is also a smaller possibility of a more serious economic breakdown or collapse. A proper analysis requires consideration of a number of key and often overlooked features of Russia’s post-Soviet economy.
http://carnegie.ru/2017/02/02/decline-not-collapse-bleak-prospects-for-russia-s-economy-pub-67865

 

[anatta]

Welcome back. I'm still pretty skeptical of Russia's motives, which puts me in the camp that anatta would call the John McCain Warmonger crowd.

i'm not unskeptical..lol.
But Russia -contrary to Obama's statement is much more then a regional power.

It's a global military force. It's spreading influence into the middle east beyond traditional Syria.
It's allying with both the Iranian ( who are expansionists) and making new inroads into Libya as well as Egypt.
It is allying with the most powerful faction/government in Libya ( General Hiftar) -and if Hiftar can
win the inevitable next upcoming Civil War there...bingo..it's got a client state in N. Africa as ell as partnering with Egypt.

All of this plus the Eurasian connections to China

Behind China and Russia's 'Special Relationship'
The relationship between China and Russia has, therefore, evolved into intensified cooperation in political areas in the last couple of years. Chief among those developments was the announcement on May 8, 2015 in Moscow, on the occasion of the annual parade commemorating the end of World War II, of the planned integration of the Chinese-led BRI with Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).
http://thediplomat.com/2016/12/behind-china-and-russias-special-relationship/

Real Russia-China Connection That Should Worry America
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-real-russia-china-connection-should-worry-america-19125
However, the Yamal natural gas project gets top billing in this analysis as the “pearl” of the Arctic treasures. Grabbing the attention of the Chinese shipbuilding industry, moreover, this analysis relates a market projection that at least 20 Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) tankers will ply the route from Yamal through Arctic waters and down to East Asia, providing China with a stable supply of 3 million tons of LNG each year. Other articles in this series detail aspects of contemporary Russian ice-breaker development and discuss other key shipping imperatives, such as state-of-the-art port logistics that will interest Chinese companies. Su offers a Chinese perspective on the Northern Sea Route [северный морской путь]: “… the majority of this sea route traverses Russia’s near seas. While this could generate some fees, the overall safety/security is assured.” Moreover, such cooperative efforts to develop the Arctic fit easily into the “Belt and Road Initiative,” (BRI) according to this analysis, as BRI aims to create infrastructure linkages that span Asia’s vastness, to include apparently its northern vastness.

 

[anatta]

....aand all this above shows just why Trump's idea of playing the Russian card ( like Nixon did the China card)-
is slipping away because of the Democrats/John McCain/the Intelligence Community's built in fear and loathing of Russia.

Trump still has a chance for realignment..but the Russiaphobia runs deep inside the Deep State.
What Obama left us is a chessboard where Putin made enormous gains that will not be reversed -however we an stop Putin from consolidating his gambits into real permanent positions.

 

[Darth Omar]

Welcome back. I'm still pretty skeptical of Russia's motives, which puts me in the camp that anatta would call the John McCain Warmonger crowd.

I'm skeptical of the Muslim Brotherhood's motives but they don't get any ink.

McCain is senile.

 

[Bill]

More false angst about Russia and the 'cold war' .. Boohoo.

The Russian people live like paupers and beggars. The Russian economy is dismal and still tanking .. and Putin is in no shape to engage in any real war with the West.

Millions more Russians living in poverty as economic crisis bites
Nearly 20 million now surviving on wages which are below the poverty threshold according to latest state statistics
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ns-living-in-poverty-as-economic-crisis-bites

Inside Vladimir Putin's new Russia, where corrupt tycoons plunder billions while 19.2 million live in poverty
Beggars on the street are commonplace and in Moscow alone 90,000 women have turned to prostitution to afford food
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/inside-vladimir-putins-new-russia-9976578

Libyans had a higher standard of living than Russians.

Russia has already lost the economic war with the West .. now it engages in a new propaganda war in its desperate attempt to gain leverage .. and its traitorous agents are among us.

The West needs no 'reset' with Russia. The Russian system will collapse on its own.

Decline, Not Collapse: The Bleak Prospects for Russia’s Economy
February 02, 2017

Russia faces bleak economic prospects for the next few years. It may be a case of managed decline in which the government appeases social and political demands by tapping the big reserves it accumulated during the boom years with oil and gas exports. But there is also a smaller possibility of a more serious economic breakdown or collapse. A proper analysis requires consideration of a number of key and often overlooked features of Russia’s post-Soviet economy.
http://carnegie.ru/2017/02/02/decline-not-collapse-bleak-prospects-for-russia-s-economy-pub-67865

We must accept the Russian meddling in our affairs & elections as the only alternative is a return to the cold war

 

[Bigdog]

If the Hillbag were president, she'd be nuking Moscow. And invading English speaking countries for annexation.

 

[anatta]

Cold war 2.0: how Russia and the west reheated a historic struggle
The accumulation of recent Russian provocations is daunting. The hybrid frozen war in Ukraine and the bombardment of Aleppo in Syria, revealing a determination to keep Bashar al-Assad in power, top the list.

Add to that Putin’s sudden scrapping of a 20-year-old US-Russian agreement to reprocess excess plutonium to prevent its use in nuclear weapons. He also deployed short-range, nuclear-capable Iskander-M missiles in Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave in eastern Europe, unnerving Nato members Poland and Lithuania. He moved advanced S-300 and S-400 ground-to-air missiles, and radar into Syria in a sign that he now regards the country as his preserve, and can see off any plan for a Turkish or American no-fly zone. In a display of military reach he dispatched the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, and its taskforce, to the waters off Syria so its SU-30s and MiG-29 aircrafts can drop yet more bombs on Syria.

He even raised the spectre of the Cuban missile crisis by saying he was considering reopening military bases in Cuba and Vietnam, a move calculated to unnerve US public opinion. At the same time, Putin is trying to challenge western diplomatic alliances – notably with Turkey, Egypt, China and Libya.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...sia-and-the-west-reheated-a-historic-struggle

Erdogan and Putin: The odd couple's alliance grows
http://www.middleeasteye.net/column...-step-towards-regional-partnership-1462334051
Held in a glittering state room in the Kremlin, the two leaders presided over the second-ever gathering of the “Russia-Turkey High-Level Cooperation Council (HLCC)” set up in 2015, trying to project the image of a close regional partnership bypassing the Western world.

 

[Bill]

 

[anatta]

^ *OMG Bill*

the election has sucked out your brain..

 

[blackascoal]

We must accept the Russian meddling in our affairs & elections as the only alternative is a return to the cold war

This is an excellent and insightful read .. a bit long, but well worth it.

What Putin is up to, and why he may have overplayed his hand -- excerpts

The vast damage to American interests wrought by Putin is likely to deepen for years to come. It is bad for Trump, since the ongoing revelations of a foreign adversary’s contamination of an American election undermines the outcome’s validity. This would be the case however Trump handled the matter, but he has exacerbated the qualms and controversy. His fury over leaks from U.S. intelligence agencies and investigative stories by the mainstream American media created the impression that he is shooting the messengers in order to divert attention from the core message that Russia successfully attacked America’s democracy, tarnished its reputation worldwide, and cast a pall over its president’s legitimacy. Trump has seemed more outraged at his own government than Putin’s, rousing public anger from two former CIA directors. During the campaign, Mike Morrell, former acting director of the CIA under Obama, called Trump Russia’s “unwitting agent.” Michael Hayden, who led the agency under George W. Bush, chimed in, scorning Trump as Moscow’s “useful fool.”

---

Putin’s scheme to affect the 2016 election was, almost certainly, intended to remain a secret. In that regard, it was a failure. Its exposure now threatens to overwhelm the American political leader who was supposed to be the beneficiary of the Russian operation.

Trump now has less support and political capital to forge ahead with his much-ballyhooed project to improve White House-Kremlin relations in ways that would please Putin and further unsettle Russia’s neighbors. Relieving sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its mauling of Ukraine, or forming an alliance with Russia against the Islamic State that would leave Bashar al-Assad in place in Damascus have become much harder for him.

Trump has further hobbled himself by waging his two-front feud with the intelligence community and the Fourth Estate. The longer he keeps this up, the more they will defend their independence and fight back with facts that the president has ignored or belittled. **And the more it will look like the president is hiding something.
https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/what-putin-is-up-to-and-why-he-may-have-overplayed-his-hand/