Ronald Reagan Documentary

Superfreak said:
The word is elitist.



It is long enough to say it wasn't CARTER's policies that killed inflation and set the economy on the right path.

The word is deficit. He ran fairly steady deficits the entire four years, but in terms of percentage increases over previous years, I will give you that one. Going from 10.4% to 9.83%.



His energy policy itself was horrid. His deregulation of the transportation sector is one of the good things he did.
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Check out the deficate % increases Carter posted to those Regan posted.
 
Aoxomoxoa said:
Nixon was president when the first oil crisis happened in October 1973. :palm:
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not only that but OPEC had little if anything to do with the 1979 oil crises. In fact OPEC tried to stabilize the 1979 oil crises by increasing production. The 1979 oil crises occurred cause of the Iranian Revolution which shut off Iranian exports of oil. That dropped world production by about 4% but that was enough to create a crisis.

What's ironic about all that was that Carter, in response to the oil crises, deregulated domestic oil production regulations and price controls implemented by Nixon. Get it? A Democrat derugulated a business that a Republican had regulated.

So once again DY shows his amazing grasp of historical facts. LOL
 
SF, I'll respond to those things in your post worth responding to and, while you have a response to each of my four points, taken as a whole, the obvious conclusion is that you are full of shit.

Superfreak said:
he didn't. It didn't even hit 18%.
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The effective federal funds rate didn't hit 18%. You do know the difference between the effective rate and the target rate don't you? And I was off on the 19% number. In reality, the top limit of the target rate was 20%. If you need a quote from the minutes of the fed meeting where this was established let me know


Superfreak said:
Wow, that is just completely dishonest. In July of 1980, rates were about 9%. That is LOWER than where rates were when Volcker took office you dishonest hack. The Fed Funds rate was at 10.83% in September of 1980, STILL BELOW where rates were when Volcker took over the Fed. Yes, in the weeks prior to the election rates began to escalate back up. But in no way were they going to have time to effect the economy prior to the election.

We didn't have 24/7 media back then and most people wouldn't have had a clue that the rate was going back up. The people saw the EFFECTS not the actual moves back then. (for the most part... obviously the experts knew what was happening).
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We went over this yesterday, SF. Do I really need to post the graph of the daily effective federal funds rate from the end of the recession through election day 1980? Apparently so. Here it is again:

fredgraph.png



If Carter could boss Volker around as you claim, why would he risk it? Why wouldn't Carter instruct Volker to continue policies that would absolutely keep the interest rate low until after the election? It makes zero sense, SF.


Superfreak said:
Because it helps to have the President on board in a situation like that. The President is the one that has to explain the effects of the policy to the people. Had he continued, Carter could have just thrown him under the bus and Volcker may not have been in place long enough to complete his plan.
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Under what authority could Carter have fired Volker? If the markets had confidence in Volker, what Jimmy Carter thought didn't matter one fucking whit.


Superfreak said:
Which given the actions of Volcker is true. His actions were based on inflation under Reagan. They were not the same under Carter. So either Volcker had no idea what he was doing or he was influenced to do otherwise.

Nothing else explains the rapid rise then rapid fall of rates in 1980. A 7% decline in ONE MONTH. That had nothing to do with inflation. That had panic written all over it. Given what we know of the two men, I find it hard to believe (though it is debatable) that it was Volcker that lacked the faith in his plan.
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The target range announced in February, 1980 was 11.5-15%. On March 7, 1980 the FED changed it to 11.5-18%. On March 18, 1980, they increased again to 13-20%. April 22, 1980: 13.5 - 19%. May 6: 10.5-19%. May 20, 1980: 8.5 - 14%.

If you want some insight as to the reasoning behind the May 6 target decrease (3% at the bottom range) you can check out this transcript of a FED conference call held on April 19 concerning the deteriorating economic conditions:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19800429confcall.pdf

It should be noted however, that the effective market rates had already declined substantially in advance of the May 6 meeting and that, just one week prior the FED reaffirmed its commitment to high interest rates.

Volker didn't lack faith in his plan, the market did. And Volker wasn't caving to the president, he was adopting to market conditions.


Superfreak said:
Except that is not the most likely scenario. Otherwise Volcker would have reacted at least in a similar fashion in 1981 if not in the exact same manner. Yet he didn't. It wasn't even close.
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Yes, he did. Albeit over a longer period.
 
Truely it was the Iranians who chose the president in 1980. They knew that if they released the hostages before the election Carter would likely win, if they waited Reagan would win. They hated Carter, thats why they waited till inaguration day to release the hostages.
 
Jarod said:
Truely it was the Iranians who chose the president in 1980. They knew that if they released the hostages before the election Carter would likely win, if they waited Reagan would win. They hated Carter, thats why they waited till inaguration day to release the hostages.
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I don't know if I agree with that. Lots of people, particularly on the right, were pissed that Carter didn't come down on Iran with both feet. After all, over running an Embassy and kidnapping it's presonnel is an act of war.

On the other side there were a lot of people, particularly on the left, that were afraid that if Reagan were President he'd get us bogged down in another unpopular foreign war. Reagan scared the shit out of a lot of people in that respect.

I think that went both ways. One of Reagan's big problems he had to over come in the 1980 election was that he was percieved as an extremist who would lead us into another war. Carter's popularity (in 1976) sprang from his promise to keep us out of any uneccesary foreign entaglements (which he did).

I think Reagan's ability to communicate, and stay on message and his upbeat optimism won him the election. It sure as hell wasn't his policy positions as he scared the fuck out of people with those.

Carter's negativity and his political ineptidude is what killed him. From a policy stand point it was hard to fault Carter. He was right on most of his major policy positions and Reagan was wrong.

Reagan may have been an airhead when it came to public policy/administration. Iran/Contra demonstrated that to a frightening degree but on the political side Carter ate Reagan's dust. Reagan outmanuevered him brilliantly.

Reagan really has two long lasting legacies. Debt and alligning blue collar/working class voters with the Republican Party.
 
DamnYankee said:
OK. So?
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and it wasn't an oil embargo. It was a panic in international commodities exchange that occurred due loss of Iranian oil due to the Iranian Revolution that drove the price of oil up. There was no embargo. Oh yea....and when that happened in 1979 (not 1977) Carter did the right thing. He phased out Nixon's price controls and production regulation. By deregulating oil production Carter significantly increased domestic oil production while decreasing our reliance on foreign oil.
 
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Mott the Hoople said:
and it wasn't an oil embargo. It was a panic in international commodities exchange that occurred due loss of Iranian oil due to the Iranian Revolution that drove the price of oil up. There was no embargo. Oh yea....and when that happened in 1979 (not 1977) Carter did the right thing. He phased out Nixon's price controls and production regulation. By deregulating oil production Carter significantly increased domestic oil production while decreasing our reliance on foreign oil.
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LOL. Carter was great at increasing the oil supply to Americans:
After the student takeover, President Jimmy Carter ordered a complete embargo of Iranian oil.
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http://www.history.com/this-day-in-...m-us-embassy-in-tehran-leading-to-oil-embargo
 
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