Romney v. Obama - Predictions

ZappasGuitar said:
In what way am I "hiding the truth"?
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are you denying that 1) we have more people out of work than we did when Obama took office?......2) that a lot of people who have run out of unemployment after receiving it for two years plus, have simply given up trying to find work?.........
 
Yurt said:
consequently, |
| household survey data for January 2012 will not be directly |
| comparable with that for December 2011 or earlier periods. A |
| table showing the effects of the new controls on the major labor |
| force series will be included in the January 2012 release.

i stand corrected
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I'm sorry Yurt, what's that you're saying?

Yurt finally gets it PMP...when will you finally be pulling your head out?
 
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PostmodernProphet said:
are you denying that 1) we have more people out of work than we did when Obama took office?......2) that a lot of people who have run out of unemployment after receiving it for two years plus, have simply given up trying to find work?.........
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Those are interesting questions...they have nothing to do with the fact certain people are lying about 1.2 million people falling off the unemployment rolls in one month, but they sure are interesting.

Why are you trying to change the subject?
 
ah, the games children play.........I'm not going to challenge you to answer again like Yurt does, I know you never will.......everyone else knows the truth and that is sufficient for me......
 
PostmodernProphet said:
ah, the games children play.........I'm not going to challenge you to answer again like Yurt does, I know you never will.......everyone else knows the truth and that is sufficient for me......
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Why yes, trying to change the subject certainly is a childish way to avoid answering my question.
 
Unemployment rate drops to 8.3% on 1.2 million workers fall off benefit rolls Written

For those who wonder how today's BLS job numbers of 243K could be enough to make the unemployment rate fall to 8.3%, we must always look for the seconday fact, ie... the one that the media rarely mentions, and that is, the number of people out of work who fell off the benefit rolls.

Government reports are written to make politcians look good, not to let the public know the actual amount of people unemployed, so when today's jobs report sent jubulence to the markets, few had time initially to see why the rate fell to 8.3%.

It was because 1.2 million people were no longer being counted as looking for work because their unemployment benefits had dried up.

it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that's not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month! So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million. Which means that the civilian labor force tumbled to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7% as the BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation. - Zerohedge

not+in+work+force.jpg

those+participating+in+work+force.jpg


Charts courtesy of Bloomberg

So... it must be Obama election time again as the administration gears up to dazzle you with non-brilliance, and try to baffle you with BS.

link
 
icedancer2theend said:
For those who wonder how today's BLS job numbers of 243K could be enough to make the unemployment rate fall to 8.3%, we must always look for the seconday fact, ie... the one that the media rarely mentions, and that is, the number of people out of work who fell off the benefit rolls.

Government reports are written to make politcians look good, not to let the public know the actual amount of people unemployed, so when today's jobs report sent jubulence to the markets, few had time initially to see why the rate fell to 8.3%.

It was because 1.2 million people were no longer being counted as looking for work because their unemployment benefits had dried up.

it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that's not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month! So as the labor force increased from 153.9 million to 154.4 million, the non institutional population increased by 242.3 million meaning, those not in the labor force surged from 86.7 million to 87.9 million. Which means that the civilian labor force tumbled to a fresh 30 year low of 63.7% as the BLS is seriously planning on eliminating nearly half of the available labor pool from the unemployment calculation. - Zerohedge

not+in+work+force.jpg

those+participating+in+work+force.jpg


Charts courtesy of Bloomberg

So... it must be Obama election time again as the administration gears up to dazzle you with non-brilliance, and try to baffle you with BS.

link
Click to expand...

What a joke...post the same lies from Zerohedge.com they have used since they first started spreading this bullshit...

Post them over and over as if they REALLY think people are stupid enough to believe the lies the 10th time they post them.
 
Superfreak said:
The primary issue will of course be the economy especially as it relates to jobs. If 1.2 million people keep dropping out of the work force every month or two, the unemployment number will continue to fall giving the continued perception of improvement. The incumbents in both parties will do everything they can to prop up our markets through the election.

Against Romney, Obama will need the unemployment number at 8% or better in my opinion, so Obama has a little more work to do. Against any of the others it needs to stay under 8.5%, which I think is easily done (barring an unexpected increase in the labor pool). Bottom line, like Reagan, he has to be seen as having it going in the right direction. If he does, he gets reelected. If not, he is in for a hard fight.

The secondary issues:

1) national debt: Trillion dollar deficits every year of his Presidency. Not being able to get his own party to pass a budget, not keeping his promise of cutting the insane levels of deficit spending, yeah, that will be an issue Obama will have to overcome.

2) national security/defense: Israel/Iran conflict is heating up. If this escalates, how Obama handles it will obviously have a big boost/detraction potential. Right now, he has the Osama Bin Laden kill as a pro, but he has shown himself to be relatively weak overall on foreign policy. He has to shore that up.

3) health care (less of an issue if Romney is indeed the opponent): If the Catholics are still pissed about the contraception issue or if this becomes a bigger fight, that could hurt Obama. on the overall health care bill I think the resolution will be pushed until after the election, though I am not sure as to the timing of the Supremes looking at this.

4) how to handle a potential European implosion: They are doing everything they can to push the problem into the future, but it is continually getting harder to do so. Greece is going down. There is no stopping that now. The key will be if they can keep Spain and Italy from following suit. At this point, it is likely that this is pushed into 2013.
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Good and interesting analysis, but wrong on the European issue.
 
Panda Hugger said:
I think the American people are kind of in shellshock when it comes to the national debt. This is one obvious spot where the Republicans could hammer Obama, but Republican attempts in congress to cut even a small part of the budget seem to have come out hurting the party more than anything else. If they can keep it down to a vague promise to help with the deficit and avoid having to give any specifics, they can use it. If they try to be clear about exactly what they'll cut, the Obama campaign will use that against them.



I've been hearing that the euro is going to implode "any day now" for the past year. I think a lot of people really want the euro to implode, and it's getting in the way of they're thinking.
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Yup!
 
Panda Hugger said:
For an international currency to be truly effective, IMO, the countries involved have to cede some of their sovereignty, and allow a central authority to prevent them from making bad decisions. Otherwise, one bad actor can jeopardize the entire system for everyone else. The euro is a great idea in boom time, however, it's structure is inherently weak and leaves it ill prepared to deal with things when the shit hits the fan.
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Germany stepped in and changed that, they bailed Greece out in exchange for Greece giving up some sovereignty.
 
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