rigged polling?

Looking at the polls is interesting this year. I have been very careful not to completely say that they are skewed as I got burned in 2012. However, there are definitely some anomaly's that deserve discussion

You have NBC and ABC having Crooked ILLary up by 12

You have LA Times, IDP and Rasmussen with Trump up by 1 or 2 or they are tied

Which one is right? Dunno. There is a great unknown. Will this election follow the patterns of 2008 and 2012? If so then Crooked ILLary will glide in. However, in 2008 and 2012 there were over 6 million Republican voters that sat on the sidelines for McCain and Romney. They would have been enough to put either candidate over the top.

Now why these voters sat out is anyones guess. If the GOP primaries are any indication there are many people coming out to support Trump who have never voted before or haven't voted in a very long time. If that is true, then these polls can be wildly off. Is Trump's rally's an indication of enthusiasm? Definitely. Will it translate to actual votes? I guess we will find out on Election day. I know everyone is talking about the democrat's vaunted ground game. And it true that they have a stronger GOTV operation. But, there is very little doubt that there is little enthusiasm for Crooked ILLary. You see it on this board. Compared to 2008 and 2012, the democrat support for Crooked ILLary is muted at best. I wonder how much harder the GOTV has to work this year vs 2008 and 2012 for Obummer.

But, I guess we will see
 
Zombie Steve Jobs said:
Turns out it was a push polls. Everyone knows those are bogus, and both sides do them. Plus it was 2008. Big deal.
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Push polls for whom? Surely they wouldn't want to cook their own internal polling would they? Of course not.

Given the level of media collusion that we have seen from Podesta's emails it isn't a big stretch to see them collude on the polling.
 
Teflon Don said:
Looking at the polls is interesting this year. I have been very careful not to completely say that they are skewed as I got burned in 2012. However, there are definitely some anomaly's that deserve discussion

You have NBC and ABC having Crooked ILLary up by 12

You have LA Times, IDP and Rasmussen with Trump up by 1 or 2 or they are tied

Which one is right? Dunno. There is a great unknown. Will this election follow the patterns of 2008 and 2012? If so then Crooked ILLary will glide in. However, in 2008 and 2012 there were over 6 million Republican voters that sat on the sidelines for McCain and Romney. They would have been enough to put either candidate over the top.

Now why these voters sat out is anyones guess. If the GOP primaries are any indication there are many people coming out to support Trump who have never voted before or haven't voted in a very long time. If that is true, then these polls can be wildly off. Is Trump's rally's an indication of enthusiasm? Definitely. Will it translate to actual votes? I guess we will find out on Election day. I know everyone is talking about the democrat's vaunted ground game. And it true that they have a stronger GOTV operation. But, there is very little doubt that there is little enthusiasm for Crooked ILLary. You see it on this board. Compared to 2008 and 2012, the democrat support for Crooked ILLary is muted at best. I wonder how much harder the GOTV has to work this year vs 2008 and 2012 for Obummer.

But, I guess we will see
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Well, I know you guys hate logic and basic reasoning, but lets give it a stab.

Rasumssen has a strong reputation and track record of being strongly right bias.
LA Times is using an untested and never before used methodology that has not track record of being correct.

So when you compare those two to the other more mainstream polls that have a history of being fairly accurate, you can make your assumptions about who is more legit. Now, if you don't want to make those assumptions, then do what Real Clear Politics does and average the polls and what do you get... HRC is 6+ pts ahead.
 
Jarod said:
Well, I know you guys hate logic and basic reasoning, but lets give it a stab.

Rasumssen has a strong reputation and track record of being strongly right bias.
LA Times is using an untested and never before used methodology that has not track record of being correct.

So when you compare those two to the other more mainstream polls that have a history of being fairly accurate, you can make your assumptions about who is more legit. Now, if you don't want to make those assumptions, then do what Real Clear Politics does and average the polls and what do you get... HRC is 6+ pts ahead.
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Well it is well known that ALL polls have their own methodology. If they all did polls the same, they would all be the same.

With that said, I notice a few things from your post

1) You failed to comment on the Investor Business Daily poll which was the most accurate poll in 2008 and 2012. Was that an oversight, or did not fit your preconceived notions?
2) Also, it is fine talking about the RCP averages, but they pick and choose what polls to include in that average which in itself is a selection bias
 
Teflon Don said:
Well it is well known that ALL polls have their own methodology. If they all did polls the same, they would all be the same.

With that said, I notice a few things from your post

1) You failed to comment on the Investor Business Daily poll which was the most accurate poll in 2008 and 2012. Was that an oversight, or did not fit your preconceived notions?
2) Also, it is fine talking about the RCP averages, but they pick and choose what polls to include in that average which in itself is a selection bias
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Wake up and smell the coffee. Your boy is not only losing, he continues to slip. All your bullshit diversions and wishful thinking isn't going to save his sorry ass.
 
Teflon Don said:
Well it is well known that ALL polls have their own methodology. If they all did polls the same, they would all be the same.

With that said, I notice a few things from your post

1) You failed to comment on the Investor Business Daily poll which was the most accurate poll in 2008 and 2012. Was that an oversight, or did not fit your preconceived notions?
2) Also, it is fine talking about the RCP averages, but they pick and choose what polls to include in that average which in itself is a selection bias
Click to expand...

I don't really know anything about IBT, Ill look into it.

They did pick and chose, but notably they do include Rasmussen, LA Times and IBT.

Personally I like Nate Silver's methodology, as an expert he examines the methodology and ranks them, then he uses almost all scientific polls in his averages after he subtracts or adds points based on what he believes is that particular polls bias. Then his algorithm studies the trend toward or away from each candidate and adds points or takes away points for the momentum factor.

He publishes three different results of % likelihood to win. The three are, Polls Only, Polls Plus and NOW. Polls Plus are pure poll data put through his algorithm. Polls Plus adds in outside factors, the economy, the presidents popularity rating adds or subtracts from HRC's numbers because she is considered a bit of an incumbent, and time between now and the election factors in the possibility for the unknown, the further from election day the more moderated the results are. The now cast is just that, what are the likely outcome if the election were held today, meaning the time factor is removed.
 
Jarod said:
I don't really know anything about IBT, Ill look into it.

They did pick and chose, but notably they do include Rasmussen, LA Times and IBT.

Personally I like Nate Silver's methodology, as an expert he examines the methodology and ranks them, then he uses almost all scientific polls in his averages after he subtracts or adds points based on what he believes is that particular polls bias. Then his algorithm studies the trend toward or away from each candidate and adds points or takes away points for the momentum factor.

He publishes three different results of % likelihood to win. The three are, Polls Only, Polls Plus and NOW. Polls Plus are pure poll data put through his algorithm. Polls Plus adds in outside factors, the economy, the presidents popularity rating adds or subtracts from HRC's numbers because she is considered a bit of an incumbent, and time between now and the election factors in the possibility for the unknown, the further from election day the more moderated the results are. The now cast is just that, what are the likely outcome if the election were held today, meaning the time factor is removed.
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I am sure you adore Nate Silver. At the end of the day, he utilizes polls done by others. His results are only so accurate as they are.

I am not saying that the polls are wrong or right. I am merely objectively pointing out that there is wild divergence in many of the polls.

I still come back to what I have said earlier. Who is more apt to be disappointed come November 9th? Crooked ILLary supporters or Trump supporters? For example, should Trump win on November 8th do you not think there will be teeth gnashing from the left that the vote was rigged and Trump cheated?

I still remember 2004 when the bulk of JPP leftists were screaming Kerry was cheated because he was winning the exit polls so there was no way he could lose.

My point is believe the polls if you want. They may very well be right. They may very well be wrong. I am staying agnostic on the polls.
 
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