Red Tsunami update...

Conservative pollsters have become partisan, and as a result have lost their credibility. 538 remains THE gold standard for assessing what polling is really saying. That said, I think the issue during this cycle was largely a huge miss by the pollsters on the likely voter model. The underestimated how many newly registered people would vote, and part of that was underestimating democratic enthusiasm. I also think some Republicans stayed home anticipating the Red Wave. This happens from time to time (Hillary aynyone?) but it doesn't invalidate poll results. But the nature of conservative polling has changed. Their pollsters have become propaganda arms of the Republican party.
 
Concart said:
Conservative pollsters have become partisan, and as a result have lost their credibility. 538 remains THE gold standard for assessing what polling is really saying. That said, I think the issue during this cycle was largely a huge miss by the pollsters on the likely voter model. The underestimated how many newly registered people would vote, and part of that was underestimating democratic enthusiasm. I also think some Republicans stayed home anticipating the Red Wave. This happens from time to time (Hillary aynyone?) but it doesn't invalidate poll results. But the nature of conservative polling has changed. Their pollsters have become propaganda arms of the Republican party.
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MAGA dupes kept hollering about the imminent massive Red Tsunami, but every time I looked at the rolling average on 538, the margin between the parties was generally always within the margin of statistical error.
 
I'm just happy the red side did not do what so many seemed to be predicting. I probably will not be completely satisfied with what our side did until after the Arizona votes are all counted. I want to see Kari Lake solidly defeated.
 
Cypress said:
MAGA dupes kept hollering about the imminent massive Red Tsunami, but every time I looked at the rolling average on 538, the margin between the parties was generally always within the margin of statistical error.
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Yep. I love 538 because they have taken historical trends and weighted each pollster. It removes the historical bias from the model. I suspect those biases are now going to be greater than they were previously. I always chuckle when I hear that Nate Silver is some radical lib. He is a statistician, and an amazingly good one. He takes the data and his model gives a result. There isn't an ounce of bias in that.
 
Concart said:
Yep. I love 538 because they have taken historical trends and weighted each pollster. It removes the historical bias from the model. I suspect those biases are now going to be greater than they were previously. I always chuckle when I hear that Nate Silver is some radical lib. He is a statistician, and an amazingly good one. He takes the data and his model gives a result. There isn't an ounce of bias in that.
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I am on Team Sun Tzu. If my opponent wants to rely on bad Intel, bad information, and misleading propoganda, we should help them do that. I don't want them looking at real data and reliable information. Sun Tzu's philosophy is that the opponent should be defeated by obfuscation, misinformation, bad Intel without ever meeting them on the field of battle.
 
Cypress said:
I am on Team Sun Tzu. If my opponent wants to rely on bad Intel, bad information, and misleading propoganda, we should help them do that. I don't want them looking at real data and reliable information. Sun Tzu's philosophy is that the opponent should be defeated by obfuscation, misinformation, bad Intel without ever meeting them on the field of battle.
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I don't disagree, but to some extent, this was intended to keep the donor money flowing. But you're right, it has negative impacts as well, and that's their problem. I like your approach.
 
Cypress said:
I am on Team Sun Tzu. If my opponent wants to rely on bad Intel, bad information, and misleading propoganda, we should help them do that. I don't want them looking at real data and reliable information. Sun Tzu's philosophy is that the opponent should be defeated by obfuscation, misinformation, bad Intel without ever meeting them on the field of battle.
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There was no Sun tzu. He was conjured up out of thin air and never existed. An amalgamation of others who really existed and some who didnt. In otherwords........total bullshit.
 
Cypress said:
MAGA dupes kept hollering about the imminent massive Red Tsunami, but every time I looked at the rolling average on 538, the margin between the parties was generally always within the margin of statistical error.
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There was nothing wrong with most of the polls. The very close races were within the margin of error.

Reputable pollsters do not announces red or blue "waves." They present their polling results. Pundits, those seeking publicity, or those seeking to influence the results are the ones making predictions and Democrats and Republicans believe those reports that exaggerate the wins for their side.

Changes in congressional races will be fairly small showing most just voted their party. We could predict how most JPP posters were going to vote in 2022 by 2-4 years ago and abortion, inflation, Afghanistan, and none of those other issues changed their mind.

If the Republicans win the House that is a major victory, but it was done by changing only 5 seats--not a large gain.

The fact that there was no red wave is not surprising except to people who actually believed it.
 
Stone said:
There was no Sun tzu. He was conjured up out of thin air and never existed. An amalgamation of others who really existed and some who didnt. In otherwords........total bullshit.
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I know, but by convention we universally refer to The Art of War as a work by Sun Tzu, not a work by 'some random anonymous dudes'
 
Stone said:
There was no Sun tzu. He was conjured up out of thin air and never existed. An amalgamation of others who really existed and some who didnt. In otherwords........total bullshit.
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Sun Tzu was a Chinese military general, strategist, philosopher, and writer who lived during the Eastern Zhou period. Sun Tzu is traditionally credited as the author of The Art of War, an influential work of military strategy that has affected both Western and East Asian philosophy and military thinking. Wikipedia
Born: Qi
Died: Wu
Nationality: Chinese
Children: Sun Di, Sun Chi, Sun Ming, Sun Yi
Great-grandparent: Điền Vô Vũ
Grandchild: Sun Mengzhi
 
floridafan said:
Sun Tzu was a Chinese military general, strategist, philosopher, and writer who lived during the Eastern Zhou period. Sun Tzu is traditionally credited as the author of The Art of War, an influential work of military strategy that has affected both Western and East Asian philosophy and military thinking. Wikipedia
Born: Qi
Died: Wu
Nationality: Chinese
Children: Sun Di, Sun Chi, Sun Ming, Sun Yi
Great-grandparent: Điền Vô Vũ
Grandchild: Sun Mengzhi
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Look just above. EVEN Cypress disagrees with you........DUMMY. :laugh:
 
Flash said:
There was nothing wrong with most of the polls. The very close races were within the margin of error.

Reputable pollsters do not announces red or blue "waves." They present their polling results. Pundits, those seeking publicity, or those seeking to influence the results are the ones making predictions and Democrats and Republicans believe those reports that exaggerate the wins for their side.

Changes in congressional races will be fairly small showing most just voted their party. We could predict how most JPP posters were going to vote in 2022 by 2-4 years ago and abortion, inflation, Afghanistan, and none of those other issues changed their mind.

If the Republicans win the House that is a major victory, but it was done by changing only 5 seats--not a large gain.

The fact that there was no red wave is not surprising except to people who actually believed it.
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Remember how people reacted to me saying the red wave wasn’t real BEFORE election?
 
evince said:
Remember how people reacted to me saying the red wave wasn’t real BEFORE election?
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Yeah, Americans like to predict or anticipate dramatic changes.

If we listened to those claims Trump and Biden would both be in prison now and one party would have huge margins at all levels.
 
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