RCP now has Clinton < 2 points advantage

[anatta]

the significance -if that is true -is that the lean states now become toss up states.
In other words when a national election's number are < 2% ( and RCP uses an average) the polls are so tight as to make the entire election a toss up.

The states are still the battle grounds - but the states also follow national numbers trending -
and with the national numbers essentially tied the so called "battleground states" ( still in play) have too much fluidity to
say one way or the other.

Now we're down to turnout.

 

[Cancel 2020.1]

I was thinking Trump was going to win, but the polls today don't really show as much momentum as I thought. Some of the red states that Hillary was threatening in are coming home.

If I'm a Trump fan, I'm looking at FL & feeling discouraged. He can't seem to really break through there, and the latest poll has Hillary up by 4. Given her huge ground game advantage there, I'd be surprised if he wins it at this point.

And if he doesn't win FL, he's done.

 

[anatta]

Trump has to do the equivalent of drawing an inside straight...it's not impossible,but it's not likely either.

 

[Cancel 2020.1]

Trump has to do the equivalent of drawing an inside straight...it's not impossible,but it's not likely either.

He can still pull it off; they posted 6 different scenarios on CNN today. But he would definitely have to pick off some unexpected states.

It's a pretty weird election. Outside of their rabid core support, enthusiasm for both candidates is pretty low, so anything that comes out in the next few days could tilt the race one way or the other. I doubt they measure it, but this will probably be a record year for people making up their minds on the way to the voting booth.

Hillary should win, though. Trump really is a complete nutcase - I think that impression will prevail in the minds of many.

 

[Leonthecat]

If Trumpf were to pull off the impossible and win every toss up battleground state. He would still be at 266 electoral votes.
To win he would have to take a solid blue Clinton state as well.
That would be like winning the trifecta at the track and the lotto on the same day.
Besides, it is rigged against him.

 

[tsuke]

He can still pull it off; they posted 6 different scenarios on CNN today. But he would definitely have to pick off some unexpected states.

It's a pretty weird election. Outside of their rabid core support, enthusiasm for both candidates is pretty low, so anything that comes out in the next few days could tilt the race one way or the other. I doubt they measure it, but this will probably be a record year for people making up their minds on the way to the voting booth.

Hillary should win, though. Trump really is a complete nutcase - I think that impression will prevail in the minds of many.

get ready to make america great again

 

[anatta]

a week ago they were talking about a "mandate". I think the Latino vote will hold Florida - i've always said so.
Osceola county ( Puerto Rican) has high turnouts. But still the black turn out is downn..

It's all about turnout now.

 

[Cancel 2020.1]

get ready to make america great again

You're really an airhead. I'm not saying that in a negative way, necessarily.

 

[evince]

a week ago they were talking about a "mandate". I think the Latino vote will hold Florida - i've always said so.
Osceola county ( Puerto Rican) has high turnouts. But still the black turn out is downn..

It's all about turnout now.

the prevote is


wewillsee

 

[tsuke]

a week ago they were talking about a "mandate". I think the Latino vote will hold Florida - i've always said so.
Osceola county ( Puerto Rican) has high turnouts. But still the black turn out is downn..

It's all about turnout now.

ive always said its about turnout from the start

my biggest indicator is el rato is now campaigning for trump. That guy would not be doing it if he didnt smell victory.

 

[evince]

who

 

[tsuke]

You're really an airhead. I'm not saying that in a negative way, necessarily.

 

[Ralph]

History wills out.....going into an election day....if the incumbent party is still within the margin of error....game over, the late deciders always vote for change.

 

[anatta]

ive always said its about turnout from the start

my biggest indicator is el rato is now campaigning for trump. That guy would not be doing it if he didnt smell victory.

which "el ratón" do you mean? There are so many...

 

[evince]

History wills out.....going into an election day....if the incumbent party is still within the margin of error....game over, the late deciders always vote for change.

not with an orange sociopath in line

 

[Pappy Jones]

It is encouraging to be sure but I never get my hopes up on polls, just vote and hope for the best.

 

[BRUTALITOPS]

I was thinking Trump was going to win, but the polls today don't really show as much momentum as I thought. Some of the red states that Hillary was threatening in are coming home.

If I'm a Trump fan, I'm looking at FL & feeling discouraged. He can't seem to really break through there, and the latest poll has Hillary up by 4. Given her huge ground game advantage there, I'd be surprised if he wins it at this point.

And if he doesn't win FL, he's done.

nate silver has trump as a 52% favorite with it still trending towards trump in florida. You overreacted last week thinking trump was going to smash it but now you are overreaacting to one poll for clinton. you seriously are all over the place. Electoral politics simply isn't your gig man...

 

[BRUTALITOPS]

Trump has to do the equivalent of drawing an inside straight...it's not impossible,but it's not likely either.

er no trump basically has a flush draw at this point (depending on which variant of poker you are referring to)

 

[Ralph]

not with an orange sociopath in line

Depends on the person under FBI investigation on the other side. Right now the People trust Trump 45% vs. 38% for Clinton. Thus...even the numbers don't agree with your biased apologetic opinion. With the daily national tracking polls being 45-42 Trump. Like the numbers or not....history tells us that you might as well get used to saying, President Trump. Its not to be bad if you say it fast enough.

Look for the Hildabeast to be indicted 'win or lose'.

 

[BRUTALITOPS]

If Trumpf were to pull off the impossible and win every toss up battleground state. He would still be at 266 electoral votes.
To win he would have to take a solid blue Clinton state as well.
That would be like winning the trifecta at the track and the lotto on the same day.
Besides, it is rigged against him.

you display a common misunderstanding though. If trump is in the position to start racking up all those battleground states, then that says something else about the election in general. one follows the other. For example, lets say for sake of argument clinton loses New york. (note to retards: I am not saying this will happen I am merely using it to illustrate a point). Now, clearly clinton in theory would still have many paths to being elected and doesn't need those 29 electoral votes. However, in losing new york, a super liberal blue state, it would speak to something bigger going on nationally. If clinton is losing new york, it would imply she is pretty much getting wiped out everywhere.

The point is, you can't just look at each individual state in a vaccuum. If a candidate wins v, x and y.. then they are much more likely to win z as well.