cawacko
Well-known member
This is just horserace stuff but I like the prediction markets.
Who’s Going to Win GOP Nod? Markets See Rubio-Trump Dead Heat
It’s now a dead heat in the Republican presidential race — if you go by prediction markets, not polls.
PredictWise, a Microsoft research project that compiles data from Internet betting exchanges and prediction markets, puts the current likelihood of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio winning the nomination at 33%, dead even with businessman Donald Trump, who previously trailed. Both are well ahead of Sen. Ted Cruz, who stands at 22%.
Mr. Trump has led the national polls for months but was seen by prediction markets as unlikely to eventually notch the nomination. That’s now changed as the first contests draw closer and Mr. Trump remains the clear front-runner.
“The way the market sees it, Rubio is still dominating the ‘establishment,’ but the establishment is now less likely to win than ever,” said David Rothschild, founder of PredictWise. He says the data show the combined probability of an establishment candidate winning — a group that include Mr. Rubio, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush — has fallen from 80% in early June to just 45% now.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton may be looking more vulnerable in the polls, but she remains the solid favorite to win the Democratic nomination, according to predictions markets.
PredictWise puts the chance of Mrs. Clinton winning at 82%, with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 17%. That shows some tightening from a few weeks ago, when the former secretary of state was above 90%.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/...in-gop-nod-markets-see-rubio-trump-dead-heat/
Who’s Going to Win GOP Nod? Markets See Rubio-Trump Dead Heat
It’s now a dead heat in the Republican presidential race — if you go by prediction markets, not polls.
PredictWise, a Microsoft research project that compiles data from Internet betting exchanges and prediction markets, puts the current likelihood of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio winning the nomination at 33%, dead even with businessman Donald Trump, who previously trailed. Both are well ahead of Sen. Ted Cruz, who stands at 22%.
Mr. Trump has led the national polls for months but was seen by prediction markets as unlikely to eventually notch the nomination. That’s now changed as the first contests draw closer and Mr. Trump remains the clear front-runner.
“The way the market sees it, Rubio is still dominating the ‘establishment,’ but the establishment is now less likely to win than ever,” said David Rothschild, founder of PredictWise. He says the data show the combined probability of an establishment candidate winning — a group that include Mr. Rubio, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush — has fallen from 80% in early June to just 45% now.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton may be looking more vulnerable in the polls, but she remains the solid favorite to win the Democratic nomination, according to predictions markets.
PredictWise puts the chance of Mrs. Clinton winning at 82%, with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 17%. That shows some tightening from a few weeks ago, when the former secretary of state was above 90%.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/...in-gop-nod-markets-see-rubio-trump-dead-heat/
