One President’s Whim. A World in Crisis.

The Iran War Has Finally Shattered America’s World​



Trump has replaced rules with muscle, alliances with transactionalism and stability with wrath.

It’s hard to say whether the crisis in the Persian Gulf is over, with the tense and fragile ceasefire announced earlier this week, or just in temporary remission. But the broader, global implications of the war are already unfolding, and they are stunning in their impact and scope.

The war has dramatized the contours of a weaponized world economy. It has roiled old alliances.
 

Trump wanted an easy win. He created a new superpower instead​



Just imagine if Joe Biden or, indeed, any past president had released $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds, alienated our oldest allies, failed to shake Tehran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, and dropped U.S. oil sanctions.

All while fighting a war that may cost American taxpayers more than $1 trillion.

Donald Trump would be the first to call it a catastrophe.

But now, as he rushes to make a deal to end a war that never should have begun, we are fast coming to understand the consequences of this disastrously thought-out venture to bolster one man’s ego.

Trump has not rid us of a threat—he has created a global superpower from the one enemy that is most fundamentally opposed to the United States.

Tehran did not bow down and surrender at the first carnage caused by a Tomahawk, no matter how many of its leaders were killed.

Nor did it give up the Strait of Hormuz.

Now the U.S. is backed into a corner, and Trump is desperate to make concessions and move on.

Now, stopping Tehran from getting a nuclear weapon is the only explanation Trump can offer for the entire debacle.

Didn’t Trump “obliterate” Iran’s nuclear ambitions back in June last year?

Wasn’t that what he told us over and over again?
 

Trump war’s next hidden cost: Higher prices for plastic​



Nearly every American consumer staple, from fresh produce and baked goods to household supplies and medical equipment, has been packed at some point in lightweight, flexible plastic sacks, known in the industry as poly bags.

Elevated gas prices have already given U.S. consumers a sense of how the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran can impact their wallets when crude oil prices increase.

But the downstream cost increases across products further along the supply chain are only beginning to be calculated.

The price of polyethylene, a synthetic resin derived from petroleum and natural gas and used to make plastic packaging, has soared alongside oil prices.

Last year, the Middle East accounted for around 42% of global exports of polyethylene, according to data from the polymer and chemical analysis firm ITP.

With oil tankers effectively barred from transiting the critical Strait of Hormuz by Trump's blockade, plastic packaging producers have seen their costs skyrocket.

The price of polyethylene pellets, known as resin, has nearly doubled since the United States and Israel launched the war, and was up 30 cents per pound at the start of April.

Two American plastic manufacturers told NBC News the tenuous U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire agreement came too little, too late to slow down the incoming price hikes.

“Maybe late summer, you might start to see some price relief,” said Kevin Kelly, the CEO of Emerald Packaging, a California based company that produces millions of plastic bags each year.

Kelly typically prices out products for his buyers months in advance. But because of how quickly resin prices are now changing, he can no longer promise his buyers a set price for an extended period of time.

“April is baked in, May is baked in, June is probably baked in so that means the first relief you might see is in July or August," he said.

While stalled oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz drive up market prices for resin, there are already signs of a broader raw material shortage, according to U.S. based plastic producers.

The recent airstrikes on Iran’s petrochemical facilities further destabilized the already shaky global plastics market. Iran reportedly accounts for about 6%-8% of the world’s global petrochemical output.

Petrochemical plants compress and cool ethylene gas into resin that manufacturers can melt down into whatever shapes they want.

Major damage to critical facilities that produce polyethylene in the Middle East could take years, if not decades, to fully repair.

“This is bigger than just opening the Strait of Hormuz,” said Sandra Meyers, chief operating officer of the New Jersey-based poly bag producer Rutan. “We’ve lost worldwide capacity at this point.”

Faced with an urgent supply crunch, major plastics producers in Europe and Asia that traditionally source their raw materials from the Middle East have turned to America’s Gulf Coast.

"The Europeans were outbidding us” for resin, Meyers said, "by 10 cents to 15 cents" per pound.

Rutan buys the majority of its resin from suppliers on the Gulf Coast and ships it to a plant in Mahwah, New Jersey where it is melted down and shaped.

On top of limited supply and expensive raw materials, there’s also the second punch of higher transportation costs due to rising oil prices. Rutan says all of its carriers have implemented fuel surcharges since the war started.

“There is no lack of pound production in North America right now, it’s just that we cannot get material because the international regions are willing to pay more for it," Meyers said.

"At some point, I do believe supply and demand are going to equalize," she said. But more immediately, she is confronting the growing prospect of a massive shortage in resin worldwide.

“I was advised that most producers have been sold out for the whole month of April,” Meyers said of her resin suppliers.

"It there is no supply, that’s really where it will put companies like mine out of business," she said.
 
Trump's war has potential to wreck agriculture

With the planting season ending in six weeks, skyrocketing fertilizer prices are forcing farmers into an impossible choice: cut back and lose crop yield or stay the course and lose money.

A survey of 5,700 farmers conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation shows that around 70% of farmers are unable to afford all the fertilizer they need, while nearly six in 10 said their finances have worsened owing to the rising cost of both fertilizer and fuel.

The new data comes as the Iran war has strangled the global supply chain as Iran exerts its control over the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-third of global fertilizer shipments flowed before the war. While more than 20 commercial ships passed through the strait over the past several hours—an improvement from earlier this month when Trump essentially shut down the strait—it’s unclear whether the flow of ships will improve as the war drags on.

As a result, prices for three major fertilizers farmers use (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) have all increased by double digits, according to Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at financial services firm StoneX Group.

These rising fertilizer prices are taking a toll on farmers who for years have struggled with low commodity prices for two major crops grown in the U.S., corn and soybeans, which have fallen 40% and 37%, respectively, from their highs in 2022. As of this week, the average price of corn was hovering at $4.15 per bushel down from a high of $6.86 a bushel in 2022. The average price of soybeans was $10.30 per bushel, down from a high of about $16.40 in 2022, according to the United States Department of Agriculture.

The decision to cut back on fertilizer is weighing most on farmers in America, where only 19% bought fertilizer ahead of time, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation report. The crops these farmers grow—cotton, rice, corn, soybean, and peanuts—rely heavily on added nutrients, which leaves them most at risk when fertilizer prices increase, the report claimed.

The clock is ticking. These farmers have only until the middle of May when planting season ends to decide whether they will scale back on their fertilizer use—which in the long run could lead to lower crop yields—or absorb the elevated costs and potentially lose money on their harvest. Otherwise, some farmers may even choose to sit out the season and potentially add debt through borrowing to make ends meet, Bryan Hansel, chief revenue officer at regenerative agriculture company Holganix, told Fortune.

“This is heart-wrenching for farmers to decide, ‘Do I lose money? Or do I cut fertilizer? Or, like, what do I do?’” he said.
 
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said:

One President’s Whim. A World in Crisis.​



Trump’s war in Iran: his strategy is still a mystery.

Confusion, mixed messaging and rising casualties in a widening conflict that is causing calamity.
Click to expand...



The point:

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Tyrant Trump’s announcements about securing major concessions from Tehran have prompted rejections and clarifications from the authorities.

I, along with several current and former senior officials, have been quoted expressing anger, frustration, and confusion after the delusional US leader made a series of false claims.

Tyrant Trump falsely boasted that Iran and the US would jointly dig up the enriched uranium buried under the rubble of of cities, steal it , and take it to the US. He claimed Iran had agreed to stop enriching uranium on its soil. No such agreement has been made.

The thuggish tyrant Trump also said the Strait of Hormuz would never be closed again, even though we stated that Iran would not tolerate the US naval blockade.

He is a liar.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led the Iranian delegation to the Islamabad talks earlier this month, rejected all of Trump’s claims.

“With these lies, they did not win the war, and they certainly will not get anywhere in negotiations either,” he said earlier today.
 
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