Into the Night
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Denying statistical mathematics is not a math genius. Science isn't papers or publication of papers.
Official IPCC estimates of future global warming may be overstated
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Denying statistical mathematics is not a math genius. Science isn't papers or publication of papers.
Into the Night
Verified User
I can believe it.
serendipity
Verified User
Abstract from the groundbreaking Nic Lewis paper.
Abstract
Recent assessments of climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration have combined likelihoods derived from multiple lines of evidence. These assessments were very influential in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) assessment of equilibrium climate sensitivity, the likely range lower limit of which was raised to 2.5 °C (from 1.5 °C previously). This study evaluates the methodology of and results from a particularly influential assessment of climate sensitivity that combined multiple lines of evidence, Sherwood et al. (Rev Geophys 58(4):e2019RG000678, 2020). That assessment used a subjective Bayesian statistical method, with an investigator-selected prior distribution. This study estimates climate sensitivity using an Objective Bayesian method with computed, mathematical priors, since subjective Bayesian methods may produce uncertainty ranges that poorly match confidence intervals. Identical model equations and, initially, identical input values to those in Sherwood et al. are used. This study corrects Sherwood et al.'s likelihood estimation, producing estimates from three methods that agree closely with each other, but differ from those that they derived. Finally, the selection of input values is revisited, where appropriate adopting values based on more recent evidence or that otherwise appear better justified. The resulting estimates of long-term climate sensitivity are much lower and better constrained (median 2.16 °C, 17–83% range 1.75–2.7 °C, 5–95% range 1.55–3.2 °C) than in Sherwood et al. and in AR6 (central value 3 °C, very likely range 2.0–5.0 °C). This sensitivity to the assumptions employed implies that climate sensitivity remains difficult to ascertain, and that values between 1.5 °C and 2 °C are quite plausible.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-022-06468-x
Abstract
Recent assessments of climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration have combined likelihoods derived from multiple lines of evidence. These assessments were very influential in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) assessment of equilibrium climate sensitivity, the likely range lower limit of which was raised to 2.5 °C (from 1.5 °C previously). This study evaluates the methodology of and results from a particularly influential assessment of climate sensitivity that combined multiple lines of evidence, Sherwood et al. (Rev Geophys 58(4):e2019RG000678, 2020). That assessment used a subjective Bayesian statistical method, with an investigator-selected prior distribution. This study estimates climate sensitivity using an Objective Bayesian method with computed, mathematical priors, since subjective Bayesian methods may produce uncertainty ranges that poorly match confidence intervals. Identical model equations and, initially, identical input values to those in Sherwood et al. are used. This study corrects Sherwood et al.'s likelihood estimation, producing estimates from three methods that agree closely with each other, but differ from those that they derived. Finally, the selection of input values is revisited, where appropriate adopting values based on more recent evidence or that otherwise appear better justified. The resulting estimates of long-term climate sensitivity are much lower and better constrained (median 2.16 °C, 17–83% range 1.75–2.7 °C, 5–95% range 1.55–3.2 °C) than in Sherwood et al. and in AR6 (central value 3 °C, very likely range 2.0–5.0 °C). This sensitivity to the assumptions employed implies that climate sensitivity remains difficult to ascertain, and that values between 1.5 °C and 2 °C are quite plausible.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-022-06468-x
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