Obama still ahead in polls

ib1yysguy

ib1yysguy

Junior Member
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

ec_graph-2008-all.png


Omit the states with less than a margin of error victory for either candidate and you get this:
ec_graph-2008-solid.png
 
Last edited:
Superfreak said:
LOL.... the RNC hasn't begun yet....

That said, yes, Rasmussen has him up six points.... which includes his speech and the Palin VP selection. McCain has some work to do.
Click to expand...

Rasmussen always has the GOP ahead. Electoral-vote takes all polling into account and averages the results.
 
Superfreak said:
LOL.... the RNC hasn't begun yet....

That said, yes, Rasmussen has him up six points.... which includes his speech and the Palin VP selection. McCain has some work to do.
Click to expand...

CBS has him hitting 50 for the first time, McCain at 42. Gallop/Usa Today poll, has him at 48, McCain way down at 40. (or, I could have those two reversed).
 
Yeah, I was pleased w/ the polls today. 6-8 pt. leads in each, and Obama hitting 50 was big.

We'll see how McCain does. Bush & Lieberman should be a good show tonight; and then the fossil has to try to get within a few thousand miles of the homerun Obama hit last Thursday. And isn't Huckabee speaking?

I'm starting to feel better about this election. Unless there is some video of Obama at one of Wright's services railing against whitey that the GOP is saving, I'm just not seeing a President McCain...
 
The RNC is going to be a geezerfest and I think he'll only get a boost of maybe the margin of error (like three points at most).
 
Onceler said:
Yeah, I was pleased w/ the polls today. 6-8 pt. leads in each, and Obama hitting 50 was big.

We'll see how McCain does. Bush & Lieberman should be a good show tonight; and then the fossil has to try to get within a few thousand miles of the homerun Obama hit last Thursday. And isn't Huckabee speaking?

I'm starting to feel better about this election. Unless there is some video of Obama at one of Wright's services railing against whitey that the GOP is saving, I'm just not seeing a President McCain...
Click to expand...

We wont see that until October.
 
ib1yysguy said:
Rasmussen always has the GOP ahead. Electoral-vote takes all polling into account and averages the results.
Click to expand...

What the hell are you talking about? Rasmussen doesn't always have the GOP ahead. AS evidenced by the fact they have OBAMA up six points right now.
 
Darla said:
CBS has him hitting 50 for the first time, McCain at 42. Gallop/Usa Today poll, has him at 48, McCain way down at 40. (or, I could have those two reversed).
Click to expand...

yeah, you have them reversed. Gallup has him at 50, Rasmussen at 51, See B.S. at 48.

As lorax said, definitely a big deal breaking that 50 barrier.
 
Superfreak said:
What the hell are you talking about? Rasmussen doesn't always have the GOP ahead. AS evidenced by the fact they have OBAMA up six points right now.
Click to expand...

What I mean is they always have the GOP doing better than any other poll. Almost without exception.
 
Superfreak said:
What the hell are you talking about? Rasmussen doesn't always have the GOP ahead. AS evidenced by the fact they have OBAMA up six points right now.
Click to expand...

I think what he meant was that Rassy usually has it closer for the GOP, regardless. Like today, when there are 2 other polls showing a larger gap.

It's always hard to tell; I tend to see Zogby as the leftie version of Rassy; you can count on Zogby to have it closer for the Dems.
 
Onceler said:
I think what he meant was that Rassy usually has it closer for the GOP, regardless. Like today, when there are 2 other polls showing a larger gap.

It's always hard to tell; I tend to see Zogby as the leftie version of Rassy; you can count on Zogby to have it closer for the Dems.
Click to expand...

Yup
 
Onceler said:
Yeah, I was pleased w/ the polls today. 6-8 pt. leads in each, and Obama hitting 50 was big.

We'll see how McCain does. Bush & Lieberman should be a good show tonight; and then the fossil has to try to get within a few thousand miles of the homerun Obama hit last Thursday. And isn't Huckabee speaking?

I'm starting to feel better about this election. Unless there is some video of Obama at one of Wright's services railing against whitey that the GOP is saving, I'm just not seeing a President McCain...
Click to expand...

He definitely has an uphill climb. No question.

He needs to bring the polls back to within a couple points by the time polls hit next Monday (which gives a three day poll the Friday, Sat, Sun after McCains speech to fully register)
 
ib1yysguy said:
What I mean is they always have the GOP doing better than any other poll. Almost without exception.
Click to expand...

Well that's too bad for liberals since they were the only polling firm to predict the results of the 2004 election to within a tenth of a point.
 
blackascoal said:
That tracking poll doesn't look good for Obama.

Republicans always surge late.

He may yet win .. maybe.
Click to expand...

Keep in mind its tracking electoral votes and not popularity. We may very well get a replay of 2000 where Obama takes the popular vote hugely but loses to the electoral college or even the Supreme Court (since Bush v Gore only counted in that one instance, according to the decision, and was not to be looked at as precedent).
 
Onceler said:
I think what he meant was that Rassy usually has it closer for the GOP, regardless. Like today, when there are 2 other polls showing a larger gap.

It's always hard to tell; I tend to see Zogby as the leftie version of Rassy; you can count on Zogby to have it closer for the Dems.
Click to expand...

That is likely due to the tendency of Rasmussen to report their poll numbers on "likely voters" vs "registered voters" like Gallup uses. Notice, Rasmussen has Obama at 51 to McCains 45. Gallup has Obama at 50 to McCains 42. There tend to be less "undecideds" when you look at likely voters.

IMO... the Rasmussen poll actually paints a WORSE picture for McCain because of that.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top