NY-20 election today too close to call

F

FUCK THE POLICE

911 EVERY DAY
It's pretty much a disaster for the Republicans if their candidate doesn't pull through.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/3/31/715187/-NY-20-Results:-Liveblogging

NY-20 Results: Liveblogging
by BarbinMD
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Tue Mar 31, 2009 at 06:33:19 PM PDT

Via the Albany Project:

MURPHY - 18,431 48%

TEDISCO- 19,739 52%

168 of 610 reporting.

P.S. 9:24pm NOTHING from Columbia, Dutchess, Essex, Washington or Delaware counties yet.

Update:

MURPHY - 33,495 50%

TEDISCO- 33,281 50%

280 of 610 reporting.

Update II:

MURPHY - 46,645 50%

TEDISCO- 46,969 50%

386 of 610 reporting.

Update III: From AP:

88% of precincts reporting .

Jim Tedisco (R) 50% (73523)
Scott Murphy (D) 50% (73421)

Update by Arjun: Most of the votes outstanding are in Saratoga County, where Tedisco is winning 55% to 45%. Not looking good, though this is still winnable.

Update #4: With several thousand absentee ballots out there, there's actually a good chance we may not have a winner tonight.

Update #5: Murphy's closing the gap in Saratoga somewhat, and Saratoga is almost all in. With about 5900 absentee ballots out, it's still possible for either candidate to win. Tedisco is the man to beat, though.

Update #6: A whole bunch of Columbia County came in and helped Murphy close to within 100 votes.

Now, the question is whether Tedisco's margin in the outstanding Saratoga County votes will outweigh a possible Murphy edge in the absentee ballots (and in the eight outstanding precincts in Columbia County).

Tedisco should be feeling good, but he shouldn't declare victory just yet.
 
Watermarx said:
It's pretty much a disaster for the Republicans if their candidate doesn't pull through.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/3/31/715187/-NY-20-Results:-Liveblogging

NY-20 Results: Liveblogging
by BarbinMD
Digg this! Share this on Twitter - NY-20 Results: LivebloggingTweet this submit to reddit Share This
Tue Mar 31, 2009 at 06:33:19 PM PDT

Via the Albany Project:

MURPHY - 18,431 48%

TEDISCO- 19,739 52%

168 of 610 reporting.

P.S. 9:24pm NOTHING from Columbia, Dutchess, Essex, Washington or Delaware counties yet.

Update:

MURPHY - 33,495 50%

TEDISCO- 33,281 50%

280 of 610 reporting.

Update II:

MURPHY - 46,645 50%

TEDISCO- 46,969 50%

386 of 610 reporting.

Update III: From AP:

88% of precincts reporting .

Jim Tedisco (R) 50% (73523)
Scott Murphy (D) 50% (73421)

Update by Arjun: Most of the votes outstanding are in Saratoga County, where Tedisco is winning 55% to 45%. Not looking good, though this is still winnable.

Update #4: With several thousand absentee ballots out there, there's actually a good chance we may not have a winner tonight.

Update #5: Murphy's closing the gap in Saratoga somewhat, and Saratoga is almost all in. With about 5900 absentee ballots out, it's still possible for either candidate to win. Tedisco is the man to beat, though.

Update #6: A whole bunch of Columbia County came in and helped Murphy close to within 100 votes.

Now, the question is whether Tedisco's margin in the outstanding Saratoga County votes will outweigh a possible Murphy edge in the absentee ballots (and in the eight outstanding precincts in Columbia County).

Tedisco should be feeling good, but he shouldn't declare victory just yet.
Click to expand...

Oh no, a Liberal Republican who advocated more funding to government health and education in New York might lose to a Liberal Democrat!
:cry:
 
how do you figure? i was thinking this election is an indicator of how people think obama is doing so far and that its so close is not good for dems.
 
Chapdog said:
how do you figure? i was thinking this election is an indicator of how people think obama is doing so far and that its so close is not good for dems.
Click to expand...


Chap, the above is nonsense. I'll let Daniel Larison explain why:

Taken in isolation, this outcome wouldn’t matter much. But if Murphy does win it will mean that an out-of-state transplant made up a 20-point deficit against a fixture of regional politics in less than six weeks, and he will have done it in a district where Republicans enjoy a registration advantage of many tens of thousands (71,000 to be exact, which is approximately 25% of the size of the 2008 turnout).

[snip]

When Gillibrand won in 2006, it could be written off as part of a wave and a reaction against Sweeney’s scandals, and when Gillibrand was re-elected and Obama carried the district it could be written off to some extent as part of another wave and a reaction against the financial crisis and recession, but if the Democrats hold the seat for the third time that begins to suggest a pattern. It may mean that the GOP’s strongholds in the hinterlands of the Northeast, already disappearing in New Hampshire, are also eroding in upstate New York.

[snip]

Mind you, the NRCC has spent more, and independent Republican PACs have spent more than their counterparts, and the DCCC has not made that big of a push because of its existing debt problems in ‘08. The Republicans have had the advantage of the well-known, experienced candidate, and the district is so traditionally Republican, as Cook himself points out, that it never voted for Roosevelt for statewide or national office and went for Bush both times.
Click to expand...


Basically, it's a district that the Republican candidate should have won handily but didn't. It's the last bastion for Republicans in the northeast. I f they can't win here with this candidate against this challenger they can't win anywhere.


http://www.amconmag.com/larison/
 
Chapdog said:
how do you figure? i was thinking this election is an indicator of how people think obama is doing so far and that its so close is not good for dems.
Click to expand...

It's a district that leans Republican. If it's a referendum on the Obama administration, it's one that's biased pretty heavily Republican. Again, it's a pretty terrible thing for the Republicans if they lose this. Even Murphy coming this close was bad for them.
 
KingCondanomation said:
Oh no, a Liberal Republican who advocated more funding to government health and education in New York might lose to a Liberal Democrat!
:cry:
Click to expand...

Yeah, because he would've done SOOOO much better had he run on a hard right platform. Just try to console yourself Dano.

There's no such thing as a liberal Republican, and there are practically no moderate Republicans (and all of them are in the senate).
 
Dungheap said:
Chap, the above is nonsense. I'll let Daniel Larison explain why:




Basically, it's a district that the Republican candidate should have won handily but didn't. It's the last bastion for Republicans in the northeast. I f they can't win here with this candidate against this challenger they can't win anywhere.


http://www.amconmag.com/larison/
Click to expand...

OK.. seemed like from the media that Dems were all worried about it.
 
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