Do the polls affect your voting choice?
Not sure what will happen, but KS polls were off by 22%
- Thread starter LV426
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Do the polls affect your voting choice?
Nope. But that's because I can think for myself. Most pervert Conservatives cannot.
So they are going to think they are in for a big night, but as I said on this thread, in order to have that big night, they need to replicate their 2020 turnout, which doesn't seem likely.
I also think that enough of them died hilariously from COVID to make the difference in at least one race somewhere.
The president's party almost always loses seats in mid-term elections. That is a safe bet despite everything else.
Conservatives vote Republican and don't like polls, I don't think they are poisoning their mind. Same for Democrats. Everybody claims money and polls affect elections but nobody thinks it affects their vote.
they do impact turnout
Almost always...didn't happen 20 years ago.
I think Dobbs has had a disruptive effect, as anyone can see in the 5 House Special elections and the KS abortion vote.
Remember, on the eve of the KS abortion vote, the final poll showed the pro-choice side losing by 2%...it ended up winning by 20%.
That's why I think polls are stupid and useless.
If they didn't like polls, they wouldn't have spent all their GOTV money on polling to skew the averages.
That's not something a party does when they're poised to win; it's something a party does when they know they're going to underperform but need to cast doubt on the process because of lofty promises made using "conventional wisdom".
Well, if you had paid attention to any of my posts from the last few days, you'd see that I don't even consider the polls at all. All I am looking at are the cold, hard facts and those facts are:
1. Democrats have nearly a 5M vote advantage across early voting states, many of which are swing states
2. Democrats overperformed in every House Special election this year by a minimum of 6%
3. Democratic voter registration among women under 35 surged following Dobbs, breaking 2018 voter registration records
4. The early vote has at least an 11% Democratic advantage, if you're just looking at ballots cast.
5. The Pervert GOP youth early vote plummeted from its 2020 levels, while the youth early vote for the Democrats surpassed 2018 and is very close to 2020.
6. The Pervert GOP has been flooding the zone with their own polls in order to skew the averages and create a mirage that will disappear as the votes are counted. Skewing the polls was necessary because it provides cover for future electoral denialism.
7. No Trump on the ballot
These facts certainly don't indicate a red wave. There may still be a red wave, but there were no preconditions for it other than historical precedent and bad polling.
Evidence?
The only evidence I know is that people use to claim that when results on the east coast was announced they feared it would reduce turnout in the Midwest and West. However, studies showed turnout was essentially the same (not a polls but reporting the results). The polls in 2016 showed Hillary with a big popular vote lead (which was accurate) but turnout was very high. Or, there was the Chicago newspaper claiming "Dewey Wins" in 1948 (not a poll, but similar).
true scientific evidence is impossible as these are elections, not lab tests where we can be in charge of the control variable
https://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/yuchtman/Noam_Yuchtman_files/close_polls.pdf
Go with historical precedent on midterm elections--you will seldom lose. (unless somebody flies planes into U. S. buildings and then bet on the incumbent president).
However many they lose will be due to too many childish minded voters who use made up words like demmycrats.
Interesting study about Swiss cantons. I am familiar with the studies about turnout and competitiveness of elections (competitive states vs. one-party states), I had not read anything about polling and turnout involving partisan leaning of the polls.
"Though admittedly quite speculative, an application to the 2016 United States Presidentialelection is illustrative. Political commentators have suggested that low voter turnout played arole in Donald J. Trump’s victory. Interestingly, while media across the political spectrum consistently predicted a Clinton victory, in a sample of 5 media outlets, we find that on Election Day,more right-leaning sources, likely read by more right-leaning voters, reported lower estimates ofthe probability of a Clinton victory—that is, a closer election—than did more left-leaning sources(see Online Appendix Figure A.2). If closer polls motivated greater turnout, variation in pollsreported across media outlets may have played some role in shaping turnout and the outcome inthe U.S. Presidential Election."
I am sure there must be more studies about this issue using U. S. data rather than Switzerland. I'll see what I can find.
The polls are getting further off, because it is harder to get in touch with people. People used to have landlines that could be called, but today they have cell phones that block unknown numbers.
LV was extremely clear. The poll claimed Kansas was anti-abortion by 2%, and they were instead pro-choice by 20%... That is a skew of 22% towards the Republicans. If that holds out for the midterms, extremely doubtful, but hypothetically if... Then this will be a HUGE blue tsunami.
Wow, you cannot even see evidence against your theories. It is amazing.
PostmodernProphet
fully immersed in faith..
or made up words like Democrat or Democratic....I merely ended the confusion.......
PostmodernProphet
fully immersed in faith..
that's exactly the stupidity I was expecting.......thanks......
PostmodernProphet
fully immersed in faith..
you see evidence?.......I don't think so.........I think you see fantasies of sugar cakes and pink lemonade......
So just because the evidence calls your theory into some question, you refuse to see it?
Worth noting I said it was "extremely doubtful", are you arguing it is not extremely doubtful?