North Atlantic Heat Content Plunges… Meteorologist Warns Of “Serious Implications”

C

cancel2 2022

Canceled


Paul Donan of the excellent weather science site Vencore Weather here brings us up to date on the latest on one of the most powerful natural cycles driving our North Atlantic climate: North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) cycles.

Here I’ll sum up the main points. Of course do read the entire post at Vencore for all the details.

In a nutshell the sites writes that the North Atlantic “is now showing signs of a possible long-term shift back to colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SST) and this could have serious implications on US climate and sea ice areal extent in the Northern Hemisphere”.

Vencore supplies the following chart of North Atlantic heat content (0 – 700 meters deep):


1461866734166



The next chart Vencore provides below is one of Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) since the 1870s.
Clearly we see that huge climate driver has been cyclic and that the past 20 years have been marked by very warm SSTs.

1461866757481

Observed AMO index, filtered annual mean area-averaged SST anomalies over the North Atlantic basin (0N-65N, 80W-0E), using HadISST dataset (Rayner, et al., 2003) for the period 1870-2015.; courtesy NCAR: climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/-amo.​

Little wonder the North Atlantic region has been seen warmer than normal conditions over the past 2 decades. But that warmth appears to be waning as the North Atlantic is now heading toward its cool phase. That cooling down is confirmed by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC). Note how the transitions take place quickly, in a matter of just a few years.

Serious impacts on sea ice and winters

Vencore writes that the North Atlantic cooling is likely going to have some “significant impacts on Northern Hemisphere (NH) sea ice areal extent over the coming decades“, and thus could be a major blow to climate science forecasts of a melting Arctic. If the North Atlantic cooling continues, then Vencore warns we should expect Arctic sea ice to return to 1990s levels, if not even greater.

The cooling North Atlantic will also have serious ramifications for North America’s climate. Vencore reports that winters over large parts of North America are much colder during cool North Atlantic phases, and significantly warmer during the warm phases. So if these trends should continue, it means that the days of the global warming scare are numbered, or they will have to move to the other hemisphere.

- See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2016/05/01/...s-on-us-climate-sea-ice/#sthash.v3ejL2Vh.dpuf
 
Vencore are a highly respected company that provides weather information to many organisations including the US government.

Potential ramifications of an Atlantic Ocean temperature shift on US Climate
The largest body of water in the world by far is the Pacific Ocean and it is well understood that its temperature cycles play a critically important role in weather and climate not only in the US, but throughout the world. While the Atlantic Ocean is far smaller than the Pacific Ocean, its temperature cycles can also play an important role in the US for weather and climate. In an effort to investigate the possible impact of Atlantic Ocean temperature cycles on US climate, wintertime (DJF) temperature anomaly maps were generated for two distinct twenty-year periods. The first period is 1975-1995 which generally featured a cold phase in the Atlantic Ocean and the second period encompasses the current warm phase period of 1995-2015. The differences in wintertime US temperature anomalies are quite dramatic for these two twenty-year periods. The cold phase from 1975-1995 featured colder-than-normal winters on average throughout the US whereas in the recent 20-year warm phase period of 1995-2015, the opposite took place with virtually nationwide warmer-than-normal winters. No doubt many other important factors played a role in the weather conditions during the past forty winter seasons (e.g., El Nino/La Nino), but these dramatic differences in US temperatures that took place during different phases of the Atlantic Ocean suggest it is definitely something to monitor closely over the next several years.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.
Click to expand...
http://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/...-term-shift-in-temperatures-from-warm-to-cold
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top