Nate Silver on Trump and Republicans

Mott the Hoople said:
Change isn't the point. You're claim is that losing elections drives changes within political coalitions and I've given you evidence that this is not always the case and that it isn't the case with the current disintegration of the GOP coalition.
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Losing two elections in a row hasn't brought about this change in the RNC? Do you think Trump would be running as a Republican if Romney were President?
 
Mott the Hoople said:
What have you been smoking? The Dems, though they have their own smaller populist revolt to worry about, have been largely sitting back and enjoying themselves immensely watching their rivals disintegrate by means of a circular firing squad and laughing their asses off. I know I have. The GOP debates and primaries have been hugely entertaining.
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Right, that's why they're spending all their time trying to bring Trump down.
Demo's are scared that their duplicity has been uncovered and they're trying their hardest to get everyone to ignore the witch that's hiding behind the curtain.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Hell no! They are laughing all the way to the bank. Trump has rolled up the GOP with only 35% of Primary GOP voters. That hardly inspires confidence in the GOP. In fact the GOP is shitting itself in fear that if Trump or Cruz gets nominated the GOP will lose. Nor does it promote fear in Democrats. Laughter yes...fear no.

Will the Dems make the same mistake the GOP made in regards to Trump? No they will not as Trump has truly driven H.L. Menkens point home. No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.
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And that's why the liberals are spending the majority of their time trying to bring Trump down.
Obviously you find no need to have the liberals change their agenda of "Here's what I can give you for free" and will stand by it, no matter what the outcome is.
So Sad
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Not always. The Whigs didn't disintegrate due to losing elections but because of internal conflict and factionalism over the slavery issue. Some of that is going on here too with both parties. There are large factions in both parties who are currently driving change and winning/losing past elections hasn't really played a major factor. Look at the data, the GOP won the last election cycle. The Dems won the previous POTUS cycle.

The Dems have probably as many pissed off constituents clamoring for change as the GOP has and they lost the last election cycle. Rather shoots down your theory. Bernie has tapped into a well spring of pissed of voters just like Trump has.

So what's the difference? Why is the GOP disintegrating and the Dems are business as usual? I would argue there is a greater degree of internal conflict and factionalism within the GOP.
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Dems are aways business as usual. This is a political party that survived organized treason and subsequently losing a civil war. Name another political party in the history of the world which could have done that. The Federalist and Whig parties died off, committing infinitely less grave mistakes.
 
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