More storms in the news - I predict liberals will politicize them & blame Trump

Русский агент

Русский агент

Путин - м&#108
After Hurricane Harvey pounded Texas and Hurricane Irma barreled through Florida, it's hard to imagine the weather getting any worse.

However, two hurricanes are expected to head north in the next couple days and even hit some of the same areas that Hurricane Irma already devastated.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Maria is expected to turn into a hurricane by Monday and become a major hurricane by Wednesday. Maria is headed right for the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, which have already been completely devastated by Hurricane Irma.



https://twitter.com/x/status/909420671133999104




To make matters even worse, Hurricane Jose is headed north and is expected to remain a Category 1 storm through Monday night. The hurricane is projected to sweep up the coast and will possibly affect areas from North Carolina all the way up to New England. The National Hurricane Center warns that if Hurricane Jose moves west of its projected path it could have serious effects on the East Coast.

But that's not all. Tropical Storm Lee formed on Saturday in the Atlantic Ocean, and is headed west, but expected to weaken before making any landfall.



http://ijr.com/the-declaration/2017/09/976316-just-thought-couldnt-get-worse-three-storms-headed-way-one-major/
 
God bless America said:
No computer model or human forecaster got Hurricane Irma right. Forecasters relied heavily on ensemble forecasting to gauge the storm's threat to the U.S. well in advance. Such forecasting involves running a computer model numerous times while varying the initial conditions slightly each time.

Hurricane Irma is one more in a long line of storms to shine a spotlight on problems with the the premiere U.S. model, known as the Global Forecast System (GFS), particularly at intermediate to longer timescales.

The European model, too, missed the eventual track the storm took. The GFS model did, however, perform better than the European model when it came to short-range forecasts near the time of landfall.



Forecast models are typically evaluated by their forecast skill at different timescales, including three, four, and five days.


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You can see from this chart that, for example, 120 hours in advance, the official forecast was off by around 300 kilometers. The European model had an average error of just 175 kilometers at that timescale, whereas the average 120-hour error of the GFS model at 120 hours was about 475 kilometers. The models were more tightly clustered at 12- and 24-hour timescales.

Forecasters are stuck with a temperamental model that can fail to catch on to upcoming threats. This was the case with Hurricane Sandy in 2012.

The GFS model went through an upgrade earlier this year, but it may not have improved things when it comes to hurricane forecasting. The upgrade improved the model's horizontal resolution, but not its vertical resolution.

NOAA operates about 20 computer models, including some that focus on the oceans, some on weather, and a plume model to track the spread volcanic ash and hazardous air pollutants.

Private companies are seeing business opportunities in weather prediction. Panasonic and IBM have developed their own models, and IBM's even has a weather-related name: "Deep Thunder."


http://mashable.com/2017/09/14/hurricane-irma-weather-forecast-models/
Click to expand...
Your link is broken.

Not sure why you take the extra time to make a link so small people can't just click on it. That's bizarre.

I followed Irma from start to finish and the Euro was closer to spot on than any others. I don't need someone else's opinion to know that.
 
Trump Diva said:
Well, it settles it. The Euro is wrong because some nobody blogger (whose page no longer exists) said so.
Click to expand...

You can believe what and whom you like.

Forecast models typically show their skill with three-, four-, and five-day forecasts. For simplicity's sake, we will focus on 120-hour forecasts. At this lead time, the average error of the European model with respect to Irma has been about 175km in its position forecast. The next best forecast is from the hurricane center, which is slightly more than 300km.



https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/us-forecast-models-have-been-pretty-terrible-during-hurricane-irma/
 
One of the lessons we should draw from Hurricane Irma is one we ought to have learned by now: not to treat predictions of the future that are based on complex systems as facts.

Hurricane modeling is quite bad at long-term forecasting, even over a horizon of a week; the models need to be continuously updated, and their predictions revised hourly based on new data, as each storm progresses (even once Irma’s size and path were generally foreseeable, forecasters didn’t know for days if the storm’s eye would head up Florida’s Atlantic or Gulf Coasts).

And even then, the best of models can be off in very important ways due to the interaction of the known elements of a complex system (weather over the water). That’s exactly what happened with Irma as it veered away at the last minute from delivering the kind of catastrophic damage to Florida’s mainland that it dropped on the Keys and several of the islands to the south.

Twenty miles may have made a $150 billion difference. Estimates for the damage Hurricane Irma would inflict on Florida kept mounting as it made its devastating sweep across the Caribbean. It was poised to be the costliest U.S. storm on record. Then something called the Bermuda High intervened and tripped it up.

If Irma had passed 20 miles west of Marco Island instead of striking it on Sunday, the damage would have been astronomical. A track like that would have placed the powerful, eastern eye wall of Irma on Florida’s Gulf Coast.

By one estimate, the total cost dropped to about $50 billion Monday from $200 billion over the weekend. The state escaped the worst because Irma’s eye shifted away from the biggest population center of Miami-Dade County.

The credit goes to the Bermuda High. The circular system hovering over Bermuda jostled Irma onto northern Cuba Saturday, where being over land sapped it of some power, and then around the tip of the Florida peninsula, cutting down on storm surge damage on both coasts of the state.

For 10 days, computer-forecast models had struggled with how the high was going to push Irma around and when it was going to stop, said Peter Sousounis, director of meteorology at AIR Worldwide. “I have never watched a forecast more carefully than Irma. I was very surprised not by how one model was going back and forth — but by how all the models were going back and forth.”

Now meteorologists are watching Hurricane Jose churn in a circle north of the Leeward Islands. Sousounis said computer models are struggling to predict whether it will pass harmlessly out to sea or strike Cape Cod at the end of Massachusetts.

Jose won’t give up the answer for more than a week.



http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/451386/hurricane-irma-do-not-trust-predictions
 
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