http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/compare.php?type=national&year=2016&f=1&off=0&elect=0
1. NeverTrump and Never Clinton made an impact.
There has been a lot of talk about the gop coming home for Trump yet we see that there have been 6 million votes cast for other candidates this election cycle. This includes votes for johnson, stein, bernie, and even harambe. In 2012 there were only 2 million votes cast for other candidates. With margins as thin as the victories in the rust belt there is still room for both parties to get their base back.
Like the old saying goes victory has many fathers and defeat is an orphan. It should be easy to bring up the republicans success this election cycle to lure the nevertrumpers back. The good news for the GOP is that if the democrats don't nominate someone from bernie's faction next presidential election then we can expect the same level of apathy from the democrat voters.
2. The Rust Belt was in play before Trump. He just tipped it over.
The working class already felt screwed before Trump came along. The GOP just never believed they could win over working class voters. In 2012 the two of the states with the biggest swing for the GOP were PA and MI. In 2016 three of the top 5 states with the biggest swings for the GOP were PA, MI, and OH. You hear a lot of news about how the GOP is losing states because they are getting more diverse since that is news favorable to the democrats. Yet no news about how the rust belt states were slipping away from the democrats despite empirical data showing it.
This leads to our next step. The rust belt has to be classified as soft support. They gave the GOP a try and if they do not get what they want then they will immediately switch back to voting democrat. Ignore NY and CA. If the GOP is successful in turning the "blue wall" into a "red wall" then the path to the democrats winning the presidency is slim.
3. Economic populism/nationalism and strict anti-illegal immigrant policy is the way forward.
With their support for TPP and illegal immigrants the democrats made one of the worst electoral bargains we will see in politics. They traded the rust belt states for a bigger lead in CA, a closer race in TX, and solidified their hold in Nevada and new mexico. In short they gave away more than 60 electoral votes for 11.
All the GOP has to do is keep to this mindset and protect evangelicals from any of the things done to them by the government that they have experienced under obama and it will be very hard to flip any GOP states in the future. We will be coming in with a 36 electoral college lead in every election and to win the democrats will have to flip 2-3 states.
4. Next target
As you know Virginia was very close this time around. Despite kaine coming from Virginia and their governor restoring voting rights to 60000 felons right before the election. Trump is proposing increasing military spending. Luckily virginia also has a lot of military facilities and bases. We just have to make sure that they get their share of the windfall from these contracts and we have a very good chance of flipping it next cycle.
Luring back the nevertrumpers could put New Mexico in play as well. The total vote of Johnson and Trump would have exceeded Clinton
5. Democrats win fewer counties every election and make gains in the wrong states.
In 2012 Obama won 693 counties. Clinton won 453. We also see that the democrats gain the biggest swings in states which are either deep blue or deep red which increasingly marginalizes them in electoral politics. Republicans should encourage democrats to keep the status quo.
6. Outreach to African Americans not Latinos
If we look at demographics in the states important to us electorally we can see that African Americans are more important than latinos. We should prioritize outreach to this group first. In fact if Trump can solve the flint water crisis within his first 100 days it would give the party more credibility with blacks
1. NeverTrump and Never Clinton made an impact.
There has been a lot of talk about the gop coming home for Trump yet we see that there have been 6 million votes cast for other candidates this election cycle. This includes votes for johnson, stein, bernie, and even harambe. In 2012 there were only 2 million votes cast for other candidates. With margins as thin as the victories in the rust belt there is still room for both parties to get their base back.
Like the old saying goes victory has many fathers and defeat is an orphan. It should be easy to bring up the republicans success this election cycle to lure the nevertrumpers back. The good news for the GOP is that if the democrats don't nominate someone from bernie's faction next presidential election then we can expect the same level of apathy from the democrat voters.
2. The Rust Belt was in play before Trump. He just tipped it over.
The working class already felt screwed before Trump came along. The GOP just never believed they could win over working class voters. In 2012 the two of the states with the biggest swing for the GOP were PA and MI. In 2016 three of the top 5 states with the biggest swings for the GOP were PA, MI, and OH. You hear a lot of news about how the GOP is losing states because they are getting more diverse since that is news favorable to the democrats. Yet no news about how the rust belt states were slipping away from the democrats despite empirical data showing it.
This leads to our next step. The rust belt has to be classified as soft support. They gave the GOP a try and if they do not get what they want then they will immediately switch back to voting democrat. Ignore NY and CA. If the GOP is successful in turning the "blue wall" into a "red wall" then the path to the democrats winning the presidency is slim.
3. Economic populism/nationalism and strict anti-illegal immigrant policy is the way forward.
With their support for TPP and illegal immigrants the democrats made one of the worst electoral bargains we will see in politics. They traded the rust belt states for a bigger lead in CA, a closer race in TX, and solidified their hold in Nevada and new mexico. In short they gave away more than 60 electoral votes for 11.
All the GOP has to do is keep to this mindset and protect evangelicals from any of the things done to them by the government that they have experienced under obama and it will be very hard to flip any GOP states in the future. We will be coming in with a 36 electoral college lead in every election and to win the democrats will have to flip 2-3 states.
4. Next target
As you know Virginia was very close this time around. Despite kaine coming from Virginia and their governor restoring voting rights to 60000 felons right before the election. Trump is proposing increasing military spending. Luckily virginia also has a lot of military facilities and bases. We just have to make sure that they get their share of the windfall from these contracts and we have a very good chance of flipping it next cycle.
Luring back the nevertrumpers could put New Mexico in play as well. The total vote of Johnson and Trump would have exceeded Clinton
5. Democrats win fewer counties every election and make gains in the wrong states.
In 2012 Obama won 693 counties. Clinton won 453. We also see that the democrats gain the biggest swings in states which are either deep blue or deep red which increasingly marginalizes them in electoral politics. Republicans should encourage democrats to keep the status quo.
6. Outreach to African Americans not Latinos
If we look at demographics in the states important to us electorally we can see that African Americans are more important than latinos. We should prioritize outreach to this group first. In fact if Trump can solve the flint water crisis within his first 100 days it would give the party more credibility with blacks
