Lake Mead and Climate Change

Primavera said:
Nature Communications by Buentgen et al reported on the results of a double-blind experiment of 15 different groups that yielded 15 different Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions

Each group used the same network of regional tree-ring width datasets.

What’s fascinating is that all groups, though using the same data network, came up with a different result.

When it comes to deriving temperatures from tree rings, it has much to do with individual approach and interpretation. Sure we can follow the science, but whose results? Maybe people can now see why climate aiarmists are so terrified to allow their results to be criticised?

The 15 groups (referred to as R1–R15) were challenged with the same task of developing the most reliable NH summer temperature reconstruction for the Common Era

Published: 07 June 2021

The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions
Ulf Büntgen, Kathy Allen, …Jan Esper
Nature Communications volume 12, Article number: 3411 (2021) Cite this article

Abstract
Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-23627-6
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Tree ring analysis is not science.
 
Mina said:
I dislike bad faith arguments.
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You seem to like them.
Mina said:
If two people disagree with one another's actual positions, fine, perhaps facts and logic can move one or both of them.
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Hasn't moved you yet! You deny logic. You also have no idea what 'fact' means. It is not a proof. It is not a Universal Truth. It has nothing to do with logic.
Mina said:
But if one is insisting on disputing something he knows perfectly well the other never actually claim, there's no point in even discussing, since at that stage one of the people is focused on distraction rather than investigation.
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Since you have chosen to deny your own argument, you have placed yourself in your own paradox.
 
Mina said:
Just so you're aware, I'll keep an eye out for any sign you're interested in talking about the substance of matters, and engage when that happens, but when you cower behind this "I'll name any fallacies I can remember and hope that makes someone angry" move, I generally won't engage.
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They are YOUR fallacies, dude. YOU are the one that made them. Only YOU can correct them. You are not discussing anything of substance. You are describing yourself. Inversion fallacy.
 
Primavera said:
It come to something when even a arch alarmist like Gavin Schmidt of NASA GISS complains that CMIP6 models are running unfeasibly hot.

Leading climate scientists conceded that models used to estimate how much the world will warm with rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are running too hot.

https://www.netzerowatch.com/science-magazine-blows-the-whistle-on-climate-model-failure/
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How would he know? It's not possible to measure the temperature of the Earth.
 
Into the Night said:
False authority fallacy.
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There was a letter sent to Charles Bolden back in 2012 by 49 ex-NASA personnel regarding GISS in particular.

March 28, 2012

The Honorable Charles Bolden, Jr.

NASA Administrator

NASA Headquarters

Washington, D.C. 20546-0001

Dear Charlie,

We, the undersigned, respectfully request that NASA and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) refrain from including unproven remarks in public releases and websites. We believe the claims by NASA and GISS, that man-made carbon dioxide is having a catastrophic impact on global climate change are not substantiated, especially when considering thousands of years of empirical data. With hundreds of well-known climate scientists and tens of thousands of other scientists publicly declaring their disbelief in the catastrophic forecasts, coming particularly from the GISS leadership, it is clear that the science is NOT settled.

The unbridled advocacy of CO2 being the major cause of climate change is unbecoming of NASA’s history of making an objective assessment of all available scientific data prior to making decisions or public statements.

As former NASA employees, we feel that NASA’s advocacy of an extreme position, prior to a thorough study of the possible overwhelming impact of natural climate drivers is inappropriate. We request that NASA refrain from including unproven and unsupported remarks in its future releases and websites on this subject. At risk is damage to the exemplary reputation of NASA, NASA’s current or former scientists and employees, and even the reputation of science itself.

For additional information regarding the science behind our concern, we recommend that you contact Harrison Schmitt or Walter Cunningham, or others they can recommend to you.

Thank you for considering this request.

CC: Mr. John Grunsfeld, Associate Administrator for Science

CC: Ass Mr. Chris Scolese, Director, Goddard Space Flight Center

Ref: Letter to NASA Administrator Charles Bolden, dated 3-26-12, regarding a request for NASA to refrain from making unsubstantiated claims that human produced CO2 is having a catastrophic impact on climate change.

/s/ Jack Barneburg, Jack – JSC, Space Shuttle Structures, Engineering Directorate, 34 years

/s/ Larry Bell – JSC, Mgr. Crew Systems Div., Engineering Directorate, 32 years

/s/ Dr. Donald Bogard – JSC, Principal Investigator, Science Directorate, 41 years

/s/ Jerry C. Bostick – JSC, Principal Investigator, Science Directorate, 23 years

/s/ Dr. Phillip K. Chapman – JSC, Scientist – astronaut, 5 years

/s/ Michael F. Collins, JSC, Chief, Flight Design and Dynamics Division, MOD, 41 years

/s/ Dr. Kenneth Cox – JSC, Chief Flight Dynamics Div., Engr. Directorate, 40 years

/s/ Walter Cunningham – JSC, Astronaut, Apollo 7, 8 years

/s/ Dr. Donald M. Curry – JSC, Mgr. Shuttle Leading Edge, Thermal Protection Sys., Engr. Dir., 44 years

/s/ Leroy Day – Hdq. Deputy Director, Space Shuttle Program, 19 years

/s/ Dr. Henry P. Decell, Jr. – JSC, Chief, Theory & Analysis Office, 5 years

/s/Charles F. Deiterich – JSC, Mgr., Flight Operations Integration, MOD, 30 years

/s/ Dr. Harold Doiron – JSC, Chairman, Shuttle Pogo Prevention Panel, 16 years

/s/ Charles Duke – JSC, Astronaut, Apollo 16, 10 years

/s/ Anita Gale

/s/ Grace Germany – JSC, Program Analyst, 35 years

/s/ Ed Gibson – JSC, Astronaut Skylab 4, 14 years

/s/ Richard Gordon – JSC, Astronaut, Gemini Xi, Apollo 12, 9 years

/s/ Gerald C. Griffin – JSC, Apollo Flight Director, and Director of Johnson Space Center, 22 years

/s/ Thomas M. Grubbs – JSC, Chief, Aircraft Maintenance and Engineering Branch, 31 years

/s/ Thomas J. Harmon

/s/ David W. Heath – JSC, Reentry Specialist, MOD, 30 years

/s/ Miguel A. Hernandez, Jr. – JSC, Flight crew training and operations, 3 years

/s/ James R. Roundtree – JSC Branch Chief, 26 years

/s/ Enoch Jones – JSC, Mgr. SE&I, Shuttle Program Office, 26 years

/s/ Dr. Joseph Kerwin – JSC, Astronaut, Skylab 2, Director of Space and Life Sciences, 22 years

/s/ Jack Knight – JSC, Chief, Advanced Operations and Development Division, MOD, 40 years

/s/ Dr. Christopher C. Kraft – JSC, Apollo Flight Director and Director of Johnson Space Center, 24 years

/s/ Paul C. Kramer – JSC, Ass.t for Planning Aeroscience and Flight Mechanics Div., Egr. Dir., 34 years

/s/ Alex (Skip) Larsen

/s/ Dr. Lubert Leger – JSC, Ass’t. Chief Materials Division, Engr. Directorate, 30 years

/s/ Dr. Humbolt C. Mandell – JSC, Mgr. Shuttle Program Control and Advance Programs, 40 years

/s/ Donald K. McCutchen – JSC, Project Engineer – Space Shuttle and ISS Program Offices, 33 years

/s/ Thomas L. (Tom) Moser – Hdq. Dep. Assoc. Admin. & Director, Space Station Program, 28 years

/s/ Dr. George Mueller – Hdq., Assoc. Adm., Office of Space Flight, 6 years

/s/ Tom Ohesorge

/s/ James Peacock – JSC, Apollo and Shuttle Program Office, 21 years

/s/ Richard McFarland – JSC, Mgr. Motion Simulators, 28 years

/s/ Joseph E. Rogers – JSC, Chief, Structures and Dynamics Branch, Engr. Directorate,40 years

/s/ Bernard J. Rosenbaum – JSC, Chief Engineer, Propulsion and Power Division, Engr. Dir., 48 years

/s/ Dr. Harrison (Jack) Schmitt – JSC, Astronaut Apollo 17, 10 years

/s/ Gerard C. Shows – JSC, Asst. Manager, Quality Assurance, 30 years

/s/ Kenneth Suit – JSC, Ass’t Mgr., Systems Integration, Space Shuttle, 37 years

/s/ Robert F. Thompson – JSC, Program Manager, Space Shuttle, 44 years/s/ Frank Van Renesselaer – Hdq., Mgr. Shuttle Solid Rocket Boosters, 15 years

/s/ Dr. James Visentine – JSC Materials Branch, Engineering Directorate, 30 years

/s/ Manfred (Dutch) von Ehrenfried – JSC, Flight Controller; Mercury, Gemini & Apollo, MOD, 10 years
 
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Before you go into this letter, be away that science is a set of falsifiable theories. Nothing more. That is is. That is all.
Primavera said:
There was a letter sent to Charles Bolden back in 2012 by 49 ex-NASA personnel regarding GISS in particular.

March 28, 2012

The Honorable Charles Bolden, Jr.

NASA Administrator

NASA Headquarters

Washington, D.C. 20546-0001

Dear Charlie,

We, the undersigned, respectfully request that NASA and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) refrain from including unproven remarks in public releases and websites. We believe the claims by NASA and GISS, that man-made carbon dioxide is having a catastrophic impact on global climate change are not substantiated, especially when considering thousands of years of empirical data. With hundreds of well-known climate scientists and tens of thousands of other scientists publicly declaring their disbelief in the catastrophic forecasts, coming particularly from the GISS leadership, it is clear that the science is NOT settled.
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Science does not 'settle'. It is always changing. There is NO data. It is not possible to measure the temperature of the Earth nor the global concentration of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere.
Primavera said:
The unbridled advocacy of CO2 being the major cause of climate change is unbecoming of NASA’s history of making an objective assessment of all available scientific data prior to making decisions or public statements.
Click to expand...
Science isn't data or an observation. All observations are subject to the problems of phenomenology. Data is the result of an observation. None of it is science.
Primavera said:
As former NASA employees, we feel that NASA’s advocacy of an extreme position, prior to a thorough study of the possible overwhelming impact of natural climate drivers is inappropriate. We request that NASA refrain from including unproven and unsupported remarks in its future releases and websites on this subject. At risk is damage to the exemplary reputation of NASA, NASA’s current or former scientists and employees, and even the reputation of science itself.
Click to expand...
Climate has no 'drivers'. There is no value associated with climate. It does not change. The phrase 'climate change' is a meaningless buzzword used as a synonym to 'global warming'. Science is not a reputation. It doesn't give jack shit about reputation. Science has no politics and no religion.
Primavera said:
For additional information regarding the science behind our concern, we recommend that you contact Harrison Schmitt or Walter Cunningham, or others they can recommend to you.

Thank you for considering this request.
Click to expand...
The letter has not mentioned science and even disregarded it on several points. While is has the right sentiments, none of it has anything to do with science at all. Unfortunately, this letter is essentially pissing in the wind. The current NASA administration doesn't give a dead rat about such sentiments.


The basic problem with the Church of Global Warming is that they discard several theories of science, including the 1st and 2nd laws of thermodynamics and the Stefan-Boltzmann law. They try to trap heat. You can't. They try to trap thermal energy. You can't. They try to trap light. You can't. They try to create energy out of nothing. You can't. They try to reduce entropy. You can't.

The Church of Global Warming (and many government agencies!) ignore mathematics as well, specifically Statistical Mathematics. A statistical summary MUST use unbiased raw data. Anything else renders the summary void. The margin of error MUST be calculated and published with the summary, or the summary is rendered void.

We simply have nowhere near enough thermometers to measure the temperature of the Earth. Temperature can easily vary by as much as 20 deg F per mile.
 
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Primavera said:
There was a letter sent to Charles Bolden back in 2012 by 49 ex-NASA personnel regarding GISS in particular.

March 28, 2012

The Honorable Charles Bolden, Jr.

NASA Administrator

NASA Headquarters

Washington, D.C. 20546-0001

Dear Charlie,

We, the undersigned, respectfully request that NASA and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) refrain from including unproven remarks in public releases and websites. We believe the claims by NASA and GISS, that man-made carbon dioxide is having a catastrophic impact on global climate change are not substantiated, especially when considering thousands of years of empirical data. With hundreds of well-known climate scientists and tens of thousands of other scientists publicly declaring their disbelief in the catastrophic forecasts, coming particularly from the GISS leadership, it is clear that the science is NOT settled.

The unbridled advocacy of CO2 being the major cause of climate change is unbecoming of NASA’s history of making an objective assessment of all available scientific data prior to making decisions or public statements.

As former NASA employees, we feel that NASA’s advocacy of an extreme position, prior to a thorough study of the possible overwhelming impact of natural climate drivers is inappropriate. We request that NASA refrain from including unproven and unsupported remarks in its future releases and websites on this subject. At risk is damage to the exemplary reputation of NASA, NASA’s current or former scientists and employees, and even the reputation of science itself.

For additional information regarding the science behind our concern, we recommend that you contact Harrison Schmitt or Walter Cunningham, or others they can recommend to you.

Thank you for considering this request.

CC: Mr. John Grunsfeld, Associate Administrator for Science

CC: Ass Mr. Chris Scolese, Director, Goddard Space Flight Center

Ref: Letter to NASA Administrator Charles Bolden, dated 3-26-12, regarding a request for NASA to refrain from making unsubstantiated claims that human produced CO2 is having a catastrophic impact on climate change.

/s/ Jack Barneburg, Jack – JSC, Space Shuttle Structures, Engineering Directorate, 34 years

/s/ Larry Bell – JSC, Mgr. Crew Systems Div., Engineering Directorate, 32 years

/s/ Dr. Donald Bogard – JSC, Principal Investigator, Science Directorate, 41 years

/s/ Jerry C. Bostick – JSC, Principal Investigator, Science Directorate, 23 years

/s/ Dr. Phillip K. Chapman – JSC, Scientist – astronaut, 5 years

/s/ Michael F. Collins, JSC, Chief, Flight Design and Dynamics Division, MOD, 41 years

/s/ Dr. Kenneth Cox – JSC, Chief Flight Dynamics Div., Engr. Directorate, 40 years

/s/ Walter Cunningham – JSC, Astronaut, Apollo 7, 8 years

/s/ Dr. Donald M. Curry – JSC, Mgr. Shuttle Leading Edge, Thermal Protection Sys., Engr. Dir., 44 years

/s/ Leroy Day – Hdq. Deputy Director, Space Shuttle Program, 19 years

/s/ Dr. Henry P. Decell, Jr. – JSC, Chief, Theory & Analysis Office, 5 years

/s/Charles F. Deiterich – JSC, Mgr., Flight Operations Integration, MOD, 30 years

/s/ Dr. Harold Doiron – JSC, Chairman, Shuttle Pogo Prevention Panel, 16 years

/s/ Charles Duke – JSC, Astronaut, Apollo 16, 10 years

/s/ Anita Gale

/s/ Grace Germany – JSC, Program Analyst, 35 years

/s/ Ed Gibson – JSC, Astronaut Skylab 4, 14 years

/s/ Richard Gordon – JSC, Astronaut, Gemini Xi, Apollo 12, 9 years

/s/ Gerald C. Griffin – JSC, Apollo Flight Director, and Director of Johnson Space Center, 22 years

/s/ Thomas M. Grubbs – JSC, Chief, Aircraft Maintenance and Engineering Branch, 31 years

/s/ Thomas J. Harmon

/s/ David W. Heath – JSC, Reentry Specialist, MOD, 30 years

/s/ Miguel A. Hernandez, Jr. – JSC, Flight crew training and operations, 3 years

/s/ James R. Roundtree – JSC Branch Chief, 26 years

/s/ Enoch Jones – JSC, Mgr. SE&I, Shuttle Program Office, 26 years

/s/ Dr. Joseph Kerwin – JSC, Astronaut, Skylab 2, Director of Space and Life Sciences, 22 years

/s/ Jack Knight – JSC, Chief, Advanced Operations and Development Division, MOD, 40 years

/s/ Dr. Christopher C. Kraft – JSC, Apollo Flight Director and Director of Johnson Space Center, 24 years

/s/ Paul C. Kramer – JSC, Ass.t for Planning Aeroscience and Flight Mechanics Div., Egr. Dir., 34 years

/s/ Alex (Skip) Larsen

/s/ Dr. Lubert Leger – JSC, Ass’t. Chief Materials Division, Engr. Directorate, 30 years

/s/ Dr. Humbolt C. Mandell – JSC, Mgr. Shuttle Program Control and Advance Programs, 40 years

/s/ Donald K. McCutchen – JSC, Project Engineer – Space Shuttle and ISS Program Offices, 33 years

/s/ Thomas L. (Tom) Moser – Hdq. Dep. Assoc. Admin. & Director, Space Station Program, 28 years

/s/ Dr. George Mueller – Hdq., Assoc. Adm., Office of Space Flight, 6 years

/s/ Tom Ohesorge

/s/ James Peacock – JSC, Apollo and Shuttle Program Office, 21 years

/s/ Richard McFarland – JSC, Mgr. Motion Simulators, 28 years

/s/ Joseph E. Rogers – JSC, Chief, Structures and Dynamics Branch, Engr. Directorate,40 years

/s/ Bernard J. Rosenbaum – JSC, Chief Engineer, Propulsion and Power Division, Engr. Dir., 48 years

/s/ Dr. Harrison (Jack) Schmitt – JSC, Astronaut Apollo 17, 10 years

/s/ Gerard C. Shows – JSC, Asst. Manager, Quality Assurance, 30 years

/s/ Kenneth Suit – JSC, Ass’t Mgr., Systems Integration, Space Shuttle, 37 years

/s/ Robert F. Thompson – JSC, Program Manager, Space Shuttle, 44 years/s/ Frank Van Renesselaer – Hdq., Mgr. Shuttle Solid Rocket Boosters, 15 years

/s/ Dr. James Visentine – JSC Materials Branch, Engineering Directorate, 30 years

/s/ Manfred (Dutch) von Ehrenfried – JSC, Flight Controller; Mercury, Gemini & Apollo, MOD, 10 years
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Wildfire reaches nearly 260,000 acres as it stretches farther north

The Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon Fire saw another day of significant growth — nearly 22,000 acres — as firefighters continued battling it amid the vexing combination of heavy wind gusts, high temperatures, increasing drought conditions, steep terrain and abundant fuels.

Officials reported Thursday morning the blaze had reached 259,810 acres. The new growth, most of it to the north, dropped the containment rate to 29 percent. A few days earlier, firefighters had 43 percent of the perimeter contained.

https://www.santafenewmexican.com/n...cle_9b684644-d1f7-11ec-8ade-e39d03491358.html
 
BidenPresident said:
The Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon Fire saw another day of significant growth — nearly 22,000 acres — as firefighters continued battling it amid the vexing combination of heavy wind gusts, high temperatures, increasing drought conditions, steep terrain and abundant fuels.

Officials reported Thursday morning the blaze had reached 259,810 acres. The new growth, most of it to the north, dropped the containment rate to 29 percent. A few days earlier, firefighters had 43 percent of the perimeter contained.

https://www.santafenewmexican.com/n...cle_9b684644-d1f7-11ec-8ade-e39d03491358.html
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:(
 
BidenPresident said:
It is horrible. People lost their homes.
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Largest wildfires in New Mexico history

New Mexico is no stranger to wildfires. With frequent droughts, high winds, and a variety of vegetation acting as fuel, the state has had more than 1,000 wildfires larger than 100 acres since the year 2000, according to records kept by the National Interagency Fire Center and the National Wildfire Coordinating Group (NWCG).

KRQE News 13 tallied those records to discover that more than 5 million acres of New Mexico land have been charred over the past 20 years. About half of the fires were caused by lightning or another non-human source. About 37% of the fires were human-caused, the data shows. And the cause is unknown for about 10% of the large wildfires since 2000.

https://www.krqe.com/news/wildfires/largest-wildfires-in-new-mexico-history/
 
Primavera said:
Largest wildfires in New Mexico history

New Mexico is no stranger to wildfires. With frequent droughts, high winds, and a variety of vegetation acting as fuel, the state has had more than 1,000 wildfires larger than 100 acres since the year 2000, according to records kept by the National Interagency Fire Center and the National Wildfire Coordinating Group (NWCG).

KRQE News 13 tallied those records to discover that more than 5 million acres of New Mexico land have been charred over the past 20 years. About half of the fires were caused by lightning or another non-human source. About 37% of the fires were human-caused, the data shows. And the cause is unknown for about 10% of the large wildfires since 2000.

https://www.krqe.com/news/wildfires/largest-wildfires-in-new-mexico-history/
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Yes. 9% humidity.
 
BidenPresident said:
Yes. 9% humidity.
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America's Most Devastating Wildfires
Share: Copy Link
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/burn-worst-fires/

Browse a list of the largest, most costly and deadliest wildfires in U.S. history. The U.S. Forest Service did not keep detailed records until the mid-20th century, so certain information may be lacking from earlier fires.

Over 3 million acres were destroyed in the Big Burn of 1910, did climate change cause that?

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/burn-worst-fires/
 
Primavera said:
America's Most Devastating Wildfires
Share: Copy Link
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/burn-worst-fires/

Browse a list of the largest, most costly and deadliest wildfires in U.S. history. The U.S. Forest Service did not keep detailed records until the mid-20th century, so certain information may be lacking from earlier fires.

Over 3 million acres were destroyed in the Big Burn of 1910, did climate change cause that?

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/burn-worst-fires/
Click to expand...

Climate Change is fake. Trump was a great president. Lie all you want, it's boring.
 
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