Judith Curry: The climate ‘crisis’ isn’t what it used to be

has human activity had the impact that the whackos of the 80s predicted?........have the glaciers in Glacier National Park vanished?.......has Sri Lanka subsided into the sea?.......has the North Pole turned into the North Ocean?.....
 
PostmodernProphet said:
I know that the ice cores studied by science show the last cycle was much worse than the current one and occurred about 40,000 years before anything man made could have had an impact on the environment....
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I'm curious why you think that matters. What you are talking about is called paleoclimatology and it is how we understand the NATURAL FORCINGS which affect climate. Since we know humans were not pumping exces CO2 into the atmosphere 40,000 years ago we can better understand what drives climate NATURALLY.

Unfortunately for you the NATURAL FORCINGS cannot be leveraged to explain the majority of the warming we see today. The sun is not in the right output phase, ocean currents are not dramatically shifting, etc.

But we can easily measure the amount of ADDITIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS pumped into the atmosphere (we can even see human fingerprints on it via the isotopic composition of the CO2, lots of 12-C vs 13-C indicative of fossil fuel burning and/or vegetal burning).

Right now the ONLY thing that can FULLY EXPLAIN all the warming we've seen in the last 60 years is more than 50% due to human activities.

Want to see some data? Here's a comparison of the last 150+ years of temperature fitted to ONLY NATURAL FORCINGS (doesn't fit well) and HUMAN FORCINGS (the fit greatly improves).

There's a role for natural forcings but right now humanity is carrying the majority of the burden of causing warming.

OzCL00O.jpg


I know that science acknowledges there is nothing that mankind can do to cool the climate
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Again, you're wrong. In the middle of the 20th century there was an anomalous cooling (mostly in the northern hemisphere) which has now been likely associated with human-caused sulfate aerosol pollution. It kicked off in the early 1940's (beginning of WWII and increases in industrialization) and ended in the 1970's when we finally cleaned up the air.

Impact of global dimming and brightening on global warming
Wild, M., Ohmura, A., & Makowski, K. (2007). Impact of global dimming and brightening on global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(4).
 
PostmodernProphet said:
has human activity had the impact that the whackos of the 80s predicted?........have the glaciers in Glacier National Park vanished?.......has Sri Lanka subsided into the sea?.......has the North Pole turned into the North Ocean?.....
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These are tired old references - and irrelevant. They're not a sound argument for ignoring all of the warning signs we're seeing right now.

Not much logic to any of these points. And the conclusion seems to be, "people were wrong before, so they'll always be wrong." Not very convincing.
 
Perry Phimosis said:
I'm curious why you think that matters. What you are talking about is called paleoclimatology and it is how we understand the NATURAL FORCINGS which affect climate.
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it matters because what we are currently experiencing is just another natural cycle, occurring right on time......its not even as bad as the last one.....

vostok_T_CO2.png
 
BartenderElite said:
These are tired old references - and irrelevant. They're not a sound argument for ignoring all of the warning signs we're seeing right now.

Not much logic to any of these points. And the conclusion seems to be, "people were wrong before, so they'll always be wrong." Not very convincing.
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I agree....the warnings of the whackos were tired, old, irrelevant......you needed to be ignored then and you need to be ignored now.....your problem is, you have never started being right....
 
PostmodernProphet said:
it matters because what we are currently experiencing is just another natural cycle, occurring right on time......its not even as bad as the last one.....
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Can I just say that I LOVE the fact that you completely ignored everything I said.

It shows how little you actually understand of the topic. Trust me when I say that the majority of the earth scientists who tell you about the Vostok Ice Core believe that humans are causing warming now.

In fact YOU are leaving out a HUGE amount of science so you can cleave to your point. That's because you don't understand this science.
 
PostmodernProphet said:
I agree....the warnings of the whackos were tired, old, irrelevant......you needed to be ignored then and you need to be ignored now.....your problem is, you have never started being right....
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It's a myth that none of the predictions have panned out. We've lost so much habitat; our waterways & air are more polluted than ever; we're in the middle of a mass extinction; we have more frequent and severe droughts; the oceanic food supply is on the brink, et al.

It's incredible that anyone can think that anything we're doing is even remotely sustainable.
 
PostmodernProphet said:
I am amazed at how stupid lib'ruls still are.......given the fact that you are always proved wrong, why on earth would anyone trust you.....
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Son, I've got so much more education in this area that you do. And of course, being the kind of "Christian" you are YOU LIE ALL THE TIME.

Show me where I've been always proven wrong. You can't. BECAUSE YOU ARE INHERENTLY DISHONEST.

Don't bear false witness, FAKE CHRISTIAN.
 
Perry Phimosis said:
Can I just say that I LOVE the fact that you completely ignored everything I said.

It shows how little you actually understand of the topic. Trust me when I say that the majority of the earth scientists who tell you about the Vostok Ice Core believe that humans are causing warming now.

In fact YOU are leaving out a HUGE amount of science so you can cleave to your point. That's because you don't understand this science.
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Nope, and neither does the OP. Judith Curry -- *snort.*

yZJ6dBT.jpg
 
BartenderElite said:
It's a myth that none of the predictions have panned out. We've lost so much habitat; our waterways & air are more polluted than ever; we're in the middle of a mass extinction; we have more frequent and severe droughts; the oceanic food supply is on the brink, et al.

It's incredible that anyone can think that anything we're doing is even remotely sustainable.
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none of those things are true have been caused by human activity......its incredible to think that anything we are doing has caused climate change......
 
Perry Phimosis said:
Son, I've got so much more education in this area that you do. And of course, being the kind of "Christian" you are YOU LIE ALL THE TIME.

Show me where I've been always proven wrong. You can't. BECAUSE YOU ARE INHERENTLY DISHONEST.

Don't bear false witness, FAKE CHRISTIAN.
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gosh you idiots are a one track cassette tape........now run along and fuck off......
 
PostmodernProphet said:
none of those things are true have been caused by human activity......its incredible to think that anything we are doing has caused climate change......
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I mean, you can say that - but it doesn't make it true.

I think AGW is hard to prove either way, so I don't argue it. But man is certainly responsible for things like loss of habitat and pollution, and without a doubt, we're contributing to the current mass extinction.

This is the only planet we have. It's pretty easy to extrapolate what will happen w/ inaction. We have done tremendous damage in just a few hundred years. It's not sustainable for a few hundred more - much less long-term survival for the species.

It's not a partisan issue. It's something we all should work together on. I would think good Christians in particular would care more about God's creation.
 
BartenderElite said:
It's not a partisan issue. It's something we all should work together on. I would think good Christians in particular would care more about God's creation.
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it becomes a partisan issue when the ecowhack jobs want to destroy the US economy in their zeal to accomplish the unaccomplishable......did you assume that the natural cycle of the environment ISN'T God's creation?.......
 
Perry Phimosis said:
Just as a hint from the folks who actually work in the sciences: the hockey stick is NOT discredited. Just because YOU don't understand it doesn't mean it is discredited. It's not like YOU have even a CLUE how PCA works. So why say stuff like that?
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Are you referring to Principal Components Analysis?
 
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