Jan. Jobs report

anatta

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This week’s strong gains have been fueled by solid earnings and hope about the economy, and investors got another shot of optimism after the Senate approved a plan that will allow President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan to pass regardless of the level of Republican support.

With its direct payments to Americans, investors have been hoping the stimulus will give consumer spending a shot in the arm and help boost the economic recovery while vaccines are becoming more

In economic news, the government’s non-farm payrolls number for January came in at 49,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 6.3% from 6.7%. However the Labor Participation rate also fell.
A Briefing.com consensus had expected a headline number of 50,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 6.7%. While the headline number was no big surprise, it still wasn’t anywhere near as good as numbers we saw last summer and fall.

Looking just at the headline number, it feels like a slight win for the labor market in its battle with the coronavirus, but it appears we’re far from out of the woods due to some disappointing aspects deeper in the data. For example, December job losses were even worse than thought, with the government revising that number down to 227,000 jobs lost vs. its original estimate of 140,000. November jobs growth was also revised lower. This could help explain why the government’s first estimate for Q4 gross domestic product growth was lower than some analysts had expected.

The fact that jobs gains remained pretty tepid in January could indicate that sluggish economic growth is continuing into Q1, though we won’t see the government’s Q1 GDP estimate for a few months. When GDP doesn’t grow strongly, it can ultimately wind up being reflected in company earnings.

On a more positive note, January job losses were far less dramatic for the leisure and hospitality sector than the nearly 500,000 losses seen there in December. Perhaps that means the lockdown effect is slowing a little. We’ll have to wait and see.

The bad news is that the construction, manufacturing, warehousing and transportation sectors either shed jobs in January or barely gained. That’s not a sign of health in the manufacturing economy. These are the areas where you’d like to see more robust jobs growth if the economy is coming back.

Digging into these numbers a bit more, the decline in transportation jobs probably reflects airline layoffs, while seasonal factors could play into construction job losses. Meanwhile, healthcare employment is down by more than 500,000 from a year ago, perhaps because of less demand for typical healthcare because of people staying home.

It’s important to remember that these are only a data drop from one snapshot in time. It can take a few reports for the trends to show up. It’s good to see the slight job growth in January after December’s disappointing showing. And again, this report looks a bit worse than it might have otherwise been due to the continued cratering of leisure and hospitality jobs.

Stock index futures remained higher in pre-market trading, perhaps indicating a day of further gains for the stock market. Despite the early strength today, investors may want to watch out for some pressure later in the session from profit-taking, especially at the end of what’s shaping up to be such a strong week.
Looking Up

Solid economic data took center stage yesterday as good news from the nation’s labor market and factories helped move stocks higher.

The weekly jobless claims number—which has been a closely watched barometer of economic health during the pandemic—was quite a bit better than expected. Initial claims came in at 779,000 when a Briefing.com consensus had expected 825,000. It was also encouraging to see that the prior week’s number revised down to 812,000 from 847,000.

The improvement in the labor market is a welcome sign, but nearly 780,000 new applications is above the pre-pandemic high of 695,000 and shows that the U.S. economy is far from out of the woods.

With that in mind, investors were probably thinking that the still-high number won’t dent the probability of another government stimulus effort with direct payments to Americans.

Data on factory orders were also better than forecast, with December orders rising 1.1% compared with a 0.7% consensus from Briefing.com. The prior month’s data also was revised higher, to 1.3% from 1%. A key measure of business spending found in the report—nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft— rose 0.7%.

One way to look at it is as a positive-signal feedback loop. When businesses are willing to spend more, it can indicate they have a more favorable outlook on the economy, which would be in line with recently upwardly-revised estimates for the global economy in 2021. Those upwardly-revised estimates can give businesses and consumers an added layer of confidence.
https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/market-news/stock-market-jobs-report-18515
 
notice since the election the recovery has come to a standstill.
And Biden is just getting started on his jobs crushing agenda
 
This week’s strong gains have been fueled by solid earnings and hope about the economy, and investors got another shot of optimism after the Senate approved a plan that will allow President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan to pass regardless of the level of Republican support.

With its direct payments to Americans, investors have been hoping the stimulus will give consumer spending a shot in the arm and help boost the economic recovery while vaccines are becoming more

In economic news, the government’s non-farm payrolls number for January came in at 49,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 6.3% from 6.7%. However the Labor Participation rate also fell.
A Briefing.com consensus had expected a headline number of 50,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 6.7%. While the headline number was no big surprise, it still wasn’t anywhere near as good as numbers we saw last summer and fall.

Looking just at the headline number, it feels like a slight win for the labor market in its battle with the coronavirus, but it appears we’re far from out of the woods due to some disappointing aspects deeper in the data. For example, December job losses were even worse than thought, with the government revising that number down to 227,000 jobs lost vs. its original estimate of 140,000. November jobs growth was also revised lower. This could help explain why the government’s first estimate for Q4 gross domestic product growth was lower than some analysts had expected.

The fact that jobs gains remained pretty tepid in January could indicate that sluggish economic growth is continuing into Q1, though we won’t see the government’s Q1 GDP estimate for a few months. When GDP doesn’t grow strongly, it can ultimately wind up being reflected in company earnings.

On a more positive note, January job losses were far less dramatic for the leisure and hospitality sector than the nearly 500,000 losses seen there in December. Perhaps that means the lockdown effect is slowing a little. We’ll have to wait and see.

The bad news is that the construction, manufacturing, warehousing and transportation sectors either shed jobs in January or barely gained. That’s not a sign of health in the manufacturing economy. These are the areas where you’d like to see more robust jobs growth if the economy is coming back.

Digging into these numbers a bit more, the decline in transportation jobs probably reflects airline layoffs, while seasonal factors could play into construction job losses. Meanwhile, healthcare employment is down by more than 500,000 from a year ago, perhaps because of less demand for typical healthcare because of people staying home.

It’s important to remember that these are only a data drop from one snapshot in time. It can take a few reports for the trends to show up. It’s good to see the slight job growth in January after December’s disappointing showing. And again, this report looks a bit worse than it might have otherwise been due to the continued cratering of leisure and hospitality jobs.

Stock index futures remained higher in pre-market trading, perhaps indicating a day of further gains for the stock market. Despite the early strength today, investors may want to watch out for some pressure later in the session from profit-taking, especially at the end of what’s shaping up to be such a strong week.
Looking Up

Solid economic data took center stage yesterday as good news from the nation’s labor market and factories helped move stocks higher.

The weekly jobless claims number—which has been a closely watched barometer of economic health during the pandemic—was quite a bit better than expected. Initial claims came in at 779,000 when a Briefing.com consensus had expected 825,000. It was also encouraging to see that the prior week’s number revised down to 812,000 from 847,000.

The improvement in the labor market is a welcome sign, but nearly 780,000 new applications is above the pre-pandemic high of 695,000 and shows that the U.S. economy is far from out of the woods.

With that in mind, investors were probably thinking that the still-high number won’t dent the probability of another government stimulus effort with direct payments to Americans.

Data on factory orders were also better than forecast, with December orders rising 1.1% compared with a 0.7% consensus from Briefing.com. The prior month’s data also was revised higher, to 1.3% from 1%. A key measure of business spending found in the report—nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft— rose 0.7%.

One way to look at it is as a positive-signal feedback loop. When businesses are willing to spend more, it can indicate they have a more favorable outlook on the economy, which would be in line with recently upwardly-revised estimates for the global economy in 2021. Those upwardly-revised estimates can give businesses and consumers an added layer of confidence.
https://tickertape.tdameritrade.com/market-news/stock-market-jobs-report-18515

yep...some good, mostly bad. until we kick this virus out of our society we will never fully regain the Obama Economy Trump inherited.

for all the non-maskers out there....I assume some of them at least are familiar with NFL protocol. contact tracing, daily testing, 5 days quarantine for close contact, strict masking policy except on the field of play, as little face time in any enclosed spaces as possible. and the infection rate for the NFL players and coaches and personnel is about 1%......our society could basically go back to normal if a 1% infection rate was the average.
 
yep...some good, mostly bad. until we kick this virus out of our society we will never fully regain the Obama Economy Trump inherited.

so you dont get the wage gains under Trump pre-covid went to the lower earner percentiles, (unlike Obama).
Trump also got record low unemployment..
Why did the recovery start to fall apart in November? could it be Biden? LMAO
 
so you dont get the wage gains under Trump pre-covid went to the lower earner percentiles, (unlike Obama).
Trump also got record low unemployment..
Why did the recovery start to fall apart in November? could it be Biden? LMAO

the recovery? what recovery? the dow is the only aspect of the economy that has came close to recovering...and tell me, how does biden's policies affect hiring or firing when THEY ARE NOT EVEN IN AFFECT YET? when he has not proposed his first budget? when we are still in the 4th Quarter of Trump's last budget deal with the last Congress? when the new congress has NOT EVEN BEGAN TO CONSIDER BIDEN'S 1ST QUARTER BUDGET?
 
President Biden is restoring the economy in new ways. His success is a sure thing. Those who speak against him should not benefit.
 
the recovery? what recovery? the dow is the only aspect of the economy that has came close to recovering...and tell me, how does biden's policies affect hiring or firing when THEY ARE NOT EVEN IN AFFECT YET? when he has not proposed his first budget? when we are still in the 4th Quarter of Trump's last budget deal with the last Congress? when the new congress has NOT EVEN BEGAN TO CONSIDER BIDEN'S 1ST QUARTER BUDGET?
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 661,000 in September.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 638,000 in October .
they went to hell in November - do the math moron
 
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 661,000 in September. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 638,000 in October .
they went to hell in November - do the math moron

but what the fuck does biden have to do with it? he had not even taken office yet in November....are you having a stroke?
 
but what the fuck does biden have to do with it? he had not even taken office yet in November....are you having a stroke?
LMAO -you are so fucking DENSE

What happened Nov 8th 2020? BIDEN WAS ELECTED. do you have any clues about economics? no.
Jobs are not just reactive -business hire on prospectus as well
 
notice since the election the recovery has come to a standstill.
And Biden is just getting started on his jobs crushing agenda

Your shitty tax cuts plunged manufacturing into a recession in 2019, and then the rest of the economy followed in February 2020, before the COVID lockdowns.

And you lost 20M jobs last year.
 
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 661,000 in September.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 638,000 in October .

A drop in the bucket of the 20M+ jobs you lost.


they went to hell in November - do the math moron

Yeah, because COVID came back thanks to your lies.

You lied and said it was a hoax.

You lied and said it was no worse than the flu.

You lied and said HCQ could prevent it, then you said it could treat it, then you said it could treat it in rare cases, then you said it could treat it in rare cases if included as part of a larger cocktail of drugs.

You lied and said the warm weather would kill it.

You lied and said 15 cases would be down to zero.

You lied and said the lockdown would be worse than the disease that has killed over 450,000 people.

You lied and said kids couldn't catch it or spread it.

You lied and said that once you get it, you are immune.

You lied and said masks don't work, then you lied and said you supported masks, then you lied and said masks don't work again.

You lied and said it came from China, when the infected came from Europe.

You lied and said Trump banned travel from China, except for the 40,000 loopholes and the 400,000 Chinese nationals that came to the US by way of Europe and South America.

All you've done is lie about COVID.
 
notice since the election the recovery has come to a standstill.
And Biden is just getting started on his jobs crushing agenda

Huh?

The article you just pasted in said the economy is responding well to news of the $1.9T stimulus.
 
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 661,000 in September.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 638,000 in October .
they went to hell in November - do the math moron

Trump the liar did nothing to stop the pandemic and he shut down millions of jobs. He ordered his flunkys to make it look like he made jobs. he lied and so do you. Now a real President will fix the mess that Trump made. Dont you watch the news????
 
LMAO -you are so fucking DENSE

What happened Nov 8th 2020? BIDEN WAS ELECTED. do you have any clues about economics? no.
Jobs are not just reactive -business hire on prospectus as well

So people panic based on false information about Joe being a socialist, and that's Biden's fault?
 
notice since the election the recovery has come to a standstill.
And Biden is just getting started on his jobs crushing agenda

His job-creating agenda you mean. Putting money in American pockets will increase demand. That is the only factor that increases hiring and expansion. Biden will fix Trump's mess and you will give the credit to Trump or Bush.
 
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Your shitty tax cuts plunged manufacturing into a recession in 2019, and then the rest of the economy followed in February 2020, before the COVID lockdowns.

And you lost 20M jobs last year.
ROFL..a technical recession is NOT massive job losses
those started in April (if I recall)..and the "v shaped" RECOVERY right after..too lazy to look up the exact months for you
It went to hell in Nov.
 
His job-creating agenda you mean. Putting money in American pockets will increase demand. That is the only factor that increases horing and expansion. Biden will fix Trump's mess and you will give the credit to Trump or Bush.
the COVID relief (putting money in peoples pockets) doesn't solve structural problems
 
LMAO -you are so fucking DENSE

What happened Nov 8th 2020? BIDEN WAS ELECTED. do you have any clues about economics? no.
Jobs are not just reactive -business hire on prospectus as well

no, stupid shit, no. what drives the economy is demand, and producers reacting to it. anybody with a brain knows the economy is dependent upon how much we control the virus right now more than any presidential economics, especially when we know democratic economic policies are better for the country than republican. all the data proves it. the first 30 months of trump was not as good economically as the last 30 months of obama!!
 
So people panic based on false information about Joe being a socialist, and that's Biden's fault?
LMAO.. that is the absolute most lame excuse yet.
I would think the panic is because the Dems are run by job killing Progressives who want to destroy the energy sector and raise taxes. Joe is a Dem -so far unable/unwilling to stand up to the Progs..so ya.
 
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