This slapdash operation seems more like a gimmick to sell the war at home — and a cover for something darker.
Typical of Trump’s policy rollouts, this operation has been so slapdash that it has been difficult to assess whether the plan’s flaws are a sign of incompetence or darker motives.
One can already see why Trump’s “humanitarian” operation will likely fail. In order for
an estimated 2,000 ships, which
represent over 80 countries in total, to feel safe running Trump's Persian Gulf blockade, their crews would need to hear from more than just
one party of the conflict that it’s OK to pass through.
- Already, maritime trade organizations have pointed out that they have scant details to assess the safety of trying to pass through the strait.
- Oil tanker captains have reported that their companies continue to believe the US blockade is too dangerous to pass through.
- Hapag-Lloyd, a large container shipping company with many ships stuck in the Persian Gulf, said its “risk assessment is unchanged.”
“Project Freedom” could be seen as the Trump administration’s desperate bid to find a winning narrative about a war that has spiraled out of its control.
In this scenario, we can imagine the administration coming up with the idea of a so-called humanitarian mission to sound productive and authoritative and to give Trump a sense of movement as a negotiated end to the conflict remains
out of reach. It also functions as a (short-sighted) tactic to try to bring down global oil prices by suggesting that maritime trade in the region could start back up.
In his mission to find a leg up on the country, Trump may be digging himself further into a hole.
