Is there any measurable way the country does better with Republican presidents?

BartenderElite said:
No, it isn't. No matter how bad a President is - they can't create global inflation within a few weeks. And the underlying current of inflation was already rolling when he took office.

A better argument if you're determined to blame Biden would be that he made domestic inflation worse than it needed to be, even though it was inevitable. But saying he created global inflation in a few weeks is as partisan as takes get.
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the spending was overblown before biden, but his intentional collapse of the real organic economy makes it much worse, and causes scared oligarchs to increase their fiat money creation in a desperate attempt to situate themselves better personally for the collapse.
 
You can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time but you can not fool all the people all the time.

More bad news for Biden: More Americans are blaming him for the state of the economy
CNN Digital Expansion 2018 Harry Enten

Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN

Updated 2:17 PM ET, Thu May 5, 2022


(CNN)Sometimes understanding political opinion is complicated. For example, electoral observers will be trying to comprehend the rise of Donald Trump in American politics for years to come.
The story of public opinion ahead of the 2022 midterms, on other hand, is, at this point, an easy one to understand: "It's the economy, stupid," and unless the economy improves, President Joe Biden and the Democrats are in major trouble.
Take a look at our latest CNN poll conducted by SSRS. The No. 1 issue is the economy, and nothing else is even close. Half of all respondents (50%) said it was the most important issue. The next closest was the war between Russia and Ukraine at 14%.


CNN Poll: Most Americans have a dismal view of the US economy
An examination of the inner workings of the poll reveals just how universal feelings about the economy are. It's the top issue for every single one of the over 20 demographic and political groups we report out in our crosstabs. It's as important to White Americans (50%) as it is to people of color (49%). It matters as much to people age 45 and under (51%) as to those 45 and older (48%). The list goes on..."
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/05/politics/biden-economy-midterms-poll-blame/index.html


Um...this is CNN!

The times are changing.
 
Earl said:
You can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time but you can not fool all the people all the time.

More bad news for Biden: More Americans are blaming him for the state of the economy
CNN Digital Expansion 2018 Harry Enten

Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN

Updated 2:17 PM ET, Thu May 5, 2022


(CNN)Sometimes understanding political opinion is complicated. For example, electoral observers will be trying to comprehend the rise of Donald Trump in American politics for years to come.
The story of public opinion ahead of the 2022 midterms, on other hand, is, at this point, an easy one to understand: "It's the economy, stupid," and unless the economy improves, President Joe Biden and the Democrats are in major trouble.
Take a look at our latest CNN poll conducted by SSRS. The No. 1 issue is the economy, and nothing else is even close. Half of all respondents (50%) said it was the most important issue. The next closest was the war between Russia and Ukraine at 14%.


CNN Poll: Most Americans have a dismal view of the US economy
An examination of the inner workings of the poll reveals just how universal feelings about the economy are. It's the top issue for every single one of the over 20 demographic and political groups we report out in our crosstabs. It's as important to White Americans (50%) as it is to people of color (49%). It matters as much to people age 45 and under (51%) as to those 45 and older (48%). The list goes on..."
cnn.com


Um...this is CNN!

The times are changing.
Click to expand...

CNN is partisan, but they're nothing like Fox. They don't run from the truth when it's obvious.
 
T. A. Gardner said:
A McNamara fallacy is one where you rely entirely on selected quantification to argue your position
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I'm well aware of the fallacy. As you can see, you were misusing it badly. I was not relying entirely on a selected qualification to argue a position. I was inviting people to propose various quantifiable measures we could use to compare.

That's the issue I keep seeing here: right-wingers, grasping at some level that they're out of their depth, try to avoid engaging on any facts simply by naming random fallacies and hoping that derails the discussion and returns the forum to the status quo of everyone just ranting emotional assertions without reference to any quantifiable and verifiable evidence.


For example, let's say you point out the unemployment rate using the current U-30 model
Click to expand...

What's a U-30 model? Or do you mean to refer to the U-3 unemployment rate?

That is, it is measured by counting how many people are actively looking for a job but don't have one in the last 30 days
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If you meant to point to U-3, that's not how it works. The U-3 doesn't ask what has happened over the last 30 days. It asks what the situation is in the particular reference week. Basically, they do a survey and ask whether members of the household worked the prior week (usually the Sunday-Saturday period that includes the 12th of the month).

You ignore the employment rate being lower than it was say three months ago. That is, there are fewer people working and few people looking for work. That doesn't equate to a better outcome necessarily.
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I'm not clear you know what the unemployment rate is. It's just the number of people who worked in the reference week divided by the sum of the number of people who worked and the number who didn't work but actively looked for a job.

Now, of course, that means it's possible for the unemployment rate to decline without the employment count rising, if jobless people stop looking for work. But that's definitely not what's been happening lately. The number of people actually working has been sky-rocketing.

You are making a McNamara fallacy.
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As you can see, I'm not.

You have cherry picked a few common statistical measures and proclaimed that Democrat presidents do better
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As you're now aware, that isn't the case. I talked about a significant list of major indicators then invited others to provide more that we could look at. That's the opposite of cherry-picking. It's more like drag-netting.

Yet, history records most of those same Democrat presidents did miserably in office....
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Turns out that's incorrect. History records that they were highly successful.

The U-30 unemployment rate, or the opinion of nearly 80% of Americans that the economy is headed in the wrong direction?
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Assuming you're referring to the U-3 rate, then that's a comparison of an actual measure of real-world facts, versus a measure of how people perceive things to be going, likely based on what the media is telling them. Such measures are infamously lousy at tracking the real world. For example, consider this:

https://justicepolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/justicepolicy/documents/school_house_hype.pdf

At the time of that report, 62% of poll respondents thought juvenile crime was on the increase. Also at the time of that report, juvenile homicide arrests were down 56% just in the prior five years. When you ask people how things are going, they basically regurgitate the view the for-profit media have been giving them.... which, back then, was a steady diet of Columbine, Jonesboro, etc. So, they believed things were getting worse even in an era experiencing one of the most rapid improvements on record.

You see something similar in the divergence between the answers you get when you ask people how the economy as a whole is doing, versus how their personal economic situation is doing. There are a lot of times (like 2021) when people tell pollsters the economy is in terrible shape, even as most of them also tell pollsters that their own economic situation is improving. Most people feel things are getting better for themselves, yet worse for most others. Clearly there's a disconnect. And that's because while people are reasonably good at judging their own situation, if you ask them for a assessment of the broader situation, few of them have the education to know how to research that to form a meaningful opinion. Instead, they'll just vomit up whatever pre-digested talking points they got from the corporate media, which generally has a strongly negative bias.

So, I'm always skeptical of these "let's ask people for a general feeling about how things are going" kind of questions..... especially when we have strong measures to figure that out directly.

I'll take the latter over the former.
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I strongly expect you won't, other than in an entirely situational sense. If, next year, unemployment rockets up to 10% but most people say the economy is headed in the right direction, I'm convinced you'll switch which indicator you focus on. That's how right-wingers are. The importance of any given indicator is entirely dependent on whether it's telling you what you want to believe at the moment.
 
BartenderElite said:
No, it isn't. No matter how bad a President is - they can't create global inflation within a few weeks. And the underlying current of inflation was already rolling when he took office.

A better argument if you're determined to blame Biden would be that he made domestic inflation worse than it needed to be, even though it was inevitable. But saying he created global inflation in a few weeks is as partisan as takes get.
Click to expand...

A few weeks? It's been 16 months in the making.
 
archives said:
Not saying that any of them were perfect, one can find some indicator with any President to draw a different portrayal, but that in terms of the thread, Ike did emulate a sense of leadership during the tense environment of the Cold War, not sure Stevenson could have done the same. By today’s standards, he didn’t progress civil rights, but he didn’t stand as an obstacle, he did send the troops into Little Rock, and it was Ike who upon McCarthy’s attack on the Army sent out the word enough was enough

And as I noted, not a fan of Reagan, but from a Republican perspective, and again, following the theme of the thread, I can see why many would consider him an asset as President

It is a difficult question, none of them measure up to everyone, LBJ is a perfect example, should be a top ranked President on his Civil Rights achievements, but gets negative reviews for Vietnam
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Yes, no president is perfect nor perfectly bad. Trump sure gave that latter claim a challenge, though.
 
archives said:
Right, and the geocentric theory is still relevant, been at it two years now and after umpteen lawsuits, busted conspiracies, investigations, audits, recounting and recounting again, nothing to prove anything you believe

When Trump’s own personal fixer, the Roy Cohen Trump sought, who defended Trump to ludicrous ends, even got him a push on the Mueller Report, after instructing his field ageists to find fraud, said the election was not crooked and Trump lost fair and square, that was it, game over

And the irony is Trump is already playing the same Big Lie again, telling Oz to do the same in Pennsylvania, declare yourself the winner, and if you lose, it was cause you were cheated
Click to expand...

Oz is nothing but a carpetbagger who never held public office before. He's a conspiracy theorist, a promoter of pseudoscience and a grifting scam artist. My fellow Pennsylvanians should be ashamed of voting for this piece of work.
 
Earl said:
You can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time but you can not fool all the people all the time.

More bad news for Biden: More Americans are blaming him for the state of the economy
CNN Digital Expansion 2018 Harry Enten

Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN

Updated 2:17 PM ET, Thu May 5, 2022


(CNN)Sometimes understanding political opinion is complicated. For example, electoral observers will be trying to comprehend the rise of Donald Trump in American politics for years to come.
The story of public opinion ahead of the 2022 midterms, on other hand, is, at this point, an easy one to understand: "It's the economy, stupid," and unless the economy improves, President Joe Biden and the Democrats are in major trouble.
Take a look at our latest CNN poll conducted by SSRS. The No. 1 issue is the economy, and nothing else is even close. Half of all respondents (50%) said it was the most important issue. The next closest was the war between Russia and Ukraine at 14%.


CNN Poll: Most Americans have a dismal view of the US economy
An examination of the inner workings of the poll reveals just how universal feelings about the economy are. It's the top issue for every single one of the over 20 demographic and political groups we report out in our crosstabs. It's as important to White Americans (50%) as it is to people of color (49%). It matters as much to people age 45 and under (51%) as to those 45 and older (48%). The list goes on..."
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/05/politics/biden-economy-midterms-poll-blame/index.html


Um...this is CNN!

The times are changing.
Click to expand...

Have you seen Ragin Cajun James Carville trying to comprehend what happened to his party?

its hilarious.
 
Stringfellow Hawk said:
401k returns, 52.3% with the pandemic under Trump, -19% under Biden

Wages are better under Republicans as inflation is not a higher percentage
Click to expand...

Indeed.


Poll: 72% of Americans think U.S. moving in "wrong direction"https://www.axios.com › Politics & Policy
Jan 23, 2022 — Significant majorities of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction and that American democracy is in danger, ...


Since the economy is by far the most important issue to Americans, this is the issue that will drive the elections in November.
 
Dutch Uncle said:
White Supremacist Extremists. It's what many far Right JPP members claim to be...if they can only leave their retirement facilities to do something about it. LOL

https://www.dhs.gov/publication/reference-aid-us-violent-white-supremacist-extremists
US Violent White Supremacist Extremists
Violent White Supremacist Extremists (WSE) are defined as individuals who seek, wholly or in part, through unlawful acts of force or violence, to support their belief in the intellectual and moral superiority of the white race over other races. The mere advocacy of political or social positions, political activism, use of strong rhetoric, or generalized philosophic embrace of violent tactics may be constitutionally protected activities.
Click to expand...

nobody claims to be that.

you accuse everyone of that, because you're a lying fucktard of questionable character.
 
Mina said:
In another thread, we were discussing the way that, on average, the country has had a much better private-sector job creation rate during Democratic presidencies than Republican ones. It got me thinking: is there ANY indicator you can think of where performance hasn't been better, on average, during Democratic presidencies?

Famously, the country has MUCH higher real GDP growth rates when Democrats are president, stronger median real income growth, and better stock market performance. Also, it's well established that while there has been a small net increase in poverty rates during Republican presidencies, there's been a gigantic net decrease in those rates during Democratic presidencies. Dem eras also look better when it comes to the change in the share of Americans covered by health insurance.

But surely there must be SOME indicator that looks better for the Republicans, right?

My first thought was maybe crime, since Republicans talk a good game when it comes to "law and order," and have been eager to incarcerate a large share of Americans to try to achieve that. There are two ways we could score that: average rates or change in rates.

Using the murder rate as a proxy, the average murder rate during Republican presidencies is 7.5 (going back to 1960 and up to 2020). The average during Democratic presidencies is 6.3.

Calculating it, instead, by the change in rates, on average murder rates fell 0.05 points during Democratic presidencies, and rose 0.6 points during Republican presidencies.

So, whichever way you calculate that, Democratic presidential eras look better.

https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_intentional_homicide_rate

The next thought that occurred to me is inflation, since Republicans are hawkish on that. Again, there are two main ways you could score that: the average inflation rate per year, or the change in the rate of inflation from the start of a presidency to the end. The former looks better for the Democrats (3.17%, average, versus 4.16% for Republicans). The latter, though, looks better for Republicans (largely on the strength of Reagan inheriting high rates and leaving fairly low ones).

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA#0

So, out of all the indicators I've thought of, Dems look better on all of them except inflation.... and that one depends on how you score it. Are there any others you can think of that look better for the Republicans?
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The rich people demographic is on the plus side, like always. They do terrifically on that one.
 
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